BOZmail – 8th JUNE

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JUNE 8th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 19.645 points (-0.355 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = +0.085 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = -0.27 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 0/1 = 0%  Backs : 0/1 = 0%

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LESS IS MORE: 

Fanny Logan’s defeat was case in point really. The form book pointed clearly to it and yet my antennae doubted it and had I been playing I’d have been going with the market and backing Gosden’s judgement. A perfect example of rustiness and three days in a row of just plain getting it wrong and making mistakes (albeit with hindsight type  mistakes as of course most mistakes are). None of the races have been close finishes. I’m just off although fair to say it is not in all my plays at the moment. Inconsistent though and that is as good a reason as any to be staying out until that changes. You have to work through such spells however hence my flagging up the need to keep practising in real time so I will put up Monday’s devised play from the only qualifying race so you see how it goes again. We don’t play officially again though I think as all runners are coming back from long breaks and as only qualifier it has its doubts that would lead me on to a better race given more choice. Lockdown therefore remains on. If I were playing it would be 5-50 at Lingfield laying Something Lucky who has positives in liking track, consistency and running from very winnable mark but negatives in long time since getting head in front, trainer form and jockey booking and the fact that my value win play – King Robert – has collateral form over him from last year at Chelmsford. Less proven at Lingfield is his negative but that alleviated by jockey booking.Hollie is in fine fettle. We’ll see how this one goes and if I land my winner, I come back in. I made the point about needing to get the daily rhythm going because I know how important it is.

But in general I agree with most of you who have mailed in to say waiting is best, and not forcing a bet crucial and the low spread of small field races a lockdown factor that will ease off if we are patient.

I agree with all of that and thank all those that mailed in (especially on a night when my email account was hacked – if you got a suspicious mail from me, delete immediately and do a powerwash of your device). The majority vote was for c/ – to encourage me to stick to my guns and my belief and that you are happiest with me making the ultimate decision. Appreciated as always guys. It has been good to hear from you and I will keep on fighting the feeling that I’ve lost my nerve that comes on whenever I stay out of the arena too long.

I’ve done no such thing.I am in fact champing at the bit! I’m just rusty (and on a long losing streak now if you count all the lockdown stuff in – which I do) and have decided to be sensible and patient as circumstances dictate. The saving grace is that the losing streak hasn’t lost us much money. Bank management skills still to the fore. Let’s see how Monday’s effort does and go from there.

Locked back down until further notice:

LIM Scores in June:

5th:  -0.355 (-0.355) Lay @ 2.02 : Back @ 9.4

THE BOZmail post lockdown litmus test:

SHORTLIST LEVEL STAKES DAILY P/L :

Day One: +23.16

Day Two: – 29.33

Day Three: -36.58

Day Four:  +15.00

Day Five: -40.57

Day Six: -7.09

Day Seven: -1.5

The shortlist service at premier tracks does resume for definite on June 11th at Bath and if you aren’t already signed up for that but would like to be, do let me know (garyboswell@hotmail.com). I’ll send you revised subscriber details. Just £15 for the rest of the year now.

Finished on the BOZmail for the time being. Job done on tracking the lockdown effect. Form stable. Market and the Boz’ s form still to get into synch!

NEWMARKET SHORTLIST: (7.6.20) RESULTS : 4 winners : 4 placers : 1 x CSF

1-15 NO SELECTIONS

1-50 Communique – Trueshan – Ghostwatch

2-25 Davydenko – Dalgarno – West End Charmer(1st@7/2)

3-00 Alpen Rose – Run Wild(1st@11/2)

3-35 Millisle

4-10 Kuwait Currency – Ebury – Baltic Baron

4-45 King Leonidas(1st@6/4) – Eastern World(2nd@5/6) CSF = £2-87 

5-20 Boss Power – Spectrum of Light(3rd@7/2)

5-55 Native Tribe – Luigi Vampa – Arthurian Fable(2nd@8/1) – Bronze River(3rd@4/1)

6-30 Jabbarockie(1st@7/1) – Daschas – Savalas

(Incidence : 23 selections in 9 races) Level Stakes Win P/L = -1.5

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Frankly Darling – Entered for The Oaks (July 4)

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Martineo

Malotru

English King – Entered for The Derby (July 4)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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