BOZmail – 8th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY JULY 8th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +9.3313 points

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Second week at Wimbledon preview:

Some terrific tennis to watch and some fascinating questions to be answered. The lure of Wimbledon endures. Starting with Monday’s eight last sixteen matches, several of which have important bearing on our betting positions. Second week when first week has gone fairly well is about consolidating for me. Trying to win some more but being careful not to give winnings back. And sometimes playing both sides of the net. This last sixteen group of eight gives more chances for trading than fixed odds betting I feel but first the purist portfolio question. Who is gonna win outright? You’ll have read me enough by now to know I always look instinctively for outsiders but am also very much governed by tennis class. That latter helps me here in extinguishing seven of the remaining sixteen who can’t win it in my eyes.

Of course there is also always the ‘anything can happen in women’s tennis’ maxim that my years of watching and betting on the sport uphold. But still, tennis class will out overall and the surface of grass must also decide. The methods I use to pick those match bets like Strycova on Saturday will come good nine times out of ten and I use them at this stage for outrights picking too. At the risk of the one in ten possibility of getting it wrong on any given player, here are my seven who can’t win from here and why. 

Carla Suarez-Navarro – Love for her to beat Serena on Monday and a player I’ve tracked from the start admiring her one handed backhand and her ability to play through even the boom-boom brigade. She does have class and when she beat Venus in Melbourne all those years ago, I had her on my win a slam in the future list. Long gone from that now as she has repeatedly demonstrated the self destruct nerve button that afflicts so many when the chips are down. Had her chances at Wimbledon a few times and blown them. Is 0-6 on back score v Serena so that the queen in the form she showed v Goerges will munch her. Never, say never but just that one in ten chance for Carla now. She has to overcome her mental frailty. Chance of that? Minimal. Without that, can’t win from here.

Barbora Strycova – Done her job getting this far. Limitations almost always exposed by the top rankers. Not quite in their class and no sign she’ll bridge that gap late in her career. Might beat Mertens but no bet there. Quarter finals the absolute limit of her expectation.

Elise Mertens – Younger and more scope for improvement than Strycova but also limited when it comes to addressing the top rankers you meet in the quarter-finals. Don’t see her getting out of Kvitova’s quarter.

Elina Svitolina – Not on grass despite her class on other surfaces. Should already be out had Gasparyan’s knee not collapsed. Has been making some strides past two years in overcoming her mental frailties and did impress winning the WTA finals last year but still to conquer a slam and if her first was to come on grass, that would be a miracle! They do happen but not even a one in ten chance for her!

Simona Halep – Has to play Cori Gauff next and good luck to her with that!! On experience and talent, mental grit and the fact that the slam albatross flew off at The Garros last year, you’d like to think Halep could win Wimbledon. Sadly for her it is played on grass! That ball gets away from her just too quick and both Kvitova and Serena on song would marmalise her. One in ten chance perhaps if circumstances conspire to help her but fundamentally, surface rules her out. And she has to get past Gauff on Monday. Fascinating to watch her try to do that.

Shuai Zhang – Done really well to get this far and may just go one step further if Yastremska shows her youthful wobble again. Could make semi as her quarter is very hard to predict but that would be as far as she went. Another not likely to handle an on song, Pliskova, Kvitova, Serena. 

Dayanna Yastremska – One of three youngsters still in who could all feasibly create the mega shock of winning the whole thing. Always a possibility when improvement is coming at rapid pace in a tournament like this. She is playing well but of the three, is the one who has already showed some ability to wobble when the chips are down v Goerges at Edgbaston.

Not to say she can’t conquer that here but she is in Gauff’s Quarter and the 15 year old already demonstrated she is the more likely to prevail in that department. And if she can beat Halep on grass, so can Gauff. Less than one in ten with her but an unlikely nevertheless.

That’s seven down. Four others who have around that one in ten chance to defy logic.

Petra Martic – Is playing very well ever since she survived the Ostapenko abomination at Edgabston. Is a grass courter so could derail Svitolina next round and the draw could pan out for her if Pliskova goes back to old abilities to throw in a stinker at any stage. Martic has a great back score v Pliskova so on the one in ten method, you could see her as a possible semi finalist. She meets Halep or Gauff or Yastremska there and the doubt about her having the class to overcome that emerges and even if she does, she then has Barty,Serena or Kvitova to beat in the final. Ultimately too many to batter her unless she does that massive step up that Barty achieved in France. Not beyond the bounds but my heart says highly unlikely. Ostapenko had her beat!! Neither Serena nor Kvitova would have lost from there for absolute certain!

Karolina Muchova – Don’t actually know much about this second of the young three still in.

Hasn’t showed championship form to get this far particularly but she only isn’t on the first list because of my ignorance and that ‘never underestimate the youngsters or the outsiders in women’s tennis’ maxim. So probably loses to Pliskova’s experience if I’m right about the Martinez influence on the Czech. But that one in ten that my ignorance creates could prove me wrong. I didn’t know much about Cori Gauff until last week!

Johanna Konta – Said all I have to say about her in the past. When she overcomes the choker that brings about her worst tennis when she most needs her best, she could win anything. Looks to have that inability to relax at will (recognise that in myself!!) and so could easily scupper her always. Goes tight when the chips are down. Hope I’m wrong!

Playing so well this year and did really well to turn the match v Stephens yesterday. Won’t find that easy to do v an on song Kvitova however.

Alison Riske – Just a squeaky feel in my water that the one in ten represented by Alison Riske’s back score over Ash Barty (she stands 1-0 up) might cause that one in ten shock for her. She is a grass courter. On song, she has caused upsets before. Barty’s 2019 step up should prevail but like with Gauff, Barty’s run has to end sometime and so betting wisdom says you play the feisty Riske at the odds. I will be trading on that match. But even if she does cause the shock v Barty, a huge ask for her to then go on and beat Serena and Kvitova and then one other. She doesn’t have minusses v Serena or Kvitova on back score however.If I were to take an outsider at this stage, it would be her at 110.0. A back to lay and good odds to win four tennis matches on grass. What stops me is the tennis class thing.She doesn’t have oodles of it whereas Barty has stepped right up into it this year. I am backing that perception although betting value says go the other way. That’s when I bring in trading and playing either side of the net!!  Ultimately my logic tells me Riske can’t win from here.

My water is disagreeing!

The five logic says can win are:

Serena Williams – so keep that finger on the hedge button in play until you are green on her if you have those outright liabilities like I have. Got some when she lost the set to Juvan but wish I’d taken more back now that she breezed so easily past Goerges. That was old Serena. Barty and Kvitova will test whether she can still do that over three sets against the top rankers and I would maintain my doubts about that. This is grass though and she is still Serena. No other mindset like hers and that record slam still tantalisingly within reach. Take no chances with her. I’ll be surprised if she beats Barty,Kvitova,Pliskova or Guaff in succession but can’t rule that out. The one in ten with her is that you’ll likely get your chance at some point to hedge your liabilities. Don’t miss it!!

Petra Kvitova – Still my winner from here and that 16/1 looks value still. Of course she needs to maintain the health thing and her taped elbow is still a small worry. No sign yet that it is inhibiting her. She has a mindset around Serena’s and although we’ve never seen them in a Wimbledon final together, my money would always have been on Kvitova. When things are right for her, grass is her domain. Likewise Serena of course and you could argue Serena is the greater for having also won on other surfaces. True. But we also have Serena at 37 on our side. She tires in three setters now. Kvitova will trample all over that. In the semi of course rather than the final! 

Ashleigh Barty – Looked for all the world in Miami and at The Garros that Barty was set to change the guard and we’ve seen nothing yet to suggest that isn’t so. She has breezed every match she’s played in the past five months or so. But not beaten any of the Titans in that time really. Her test comes now. First she has to demolish Riske and then the biggie v Serena who has always played through her up to now. Do I think that will be different this time? Well, one in ten chance to be wrong always but my heart says yes. Based on the Barty I saw up in the gantry at Edgbaston watching her upcoming opponents and plotting how she was going to beat them. Utterly focussed serious face. Then coming out and doing it. Her hand to eye co-ordination is up there. Any ball sport is hers. She’s young and has a huge stamina and fitness edge over Serena. If its three sets, I back her. Her serve and forehand has moved on from last time they met. Serena knows that of course and my only doubt would be the mindset test. Barty has to overcome the awe and reverence she holds for Serena. We’ve seen Osaka and Kenin do that recently and now is Barty’s time to try. On grass. Then she has to beat Kvitova who she has already beaten before so not so huge a one for her. The hurdle for her will be Serena. Should be a great match. I’ll be trading that one too!

Karolina Pliskova – Have always up to now thought she wouldn’t win a slam but has got close already and certainly has the class. What we saw at Eastbourne in the demolition of Kerber was the difference Martinez’s coaching makes. Did it with Muguruza who took Serena apart in her Wimbledon final. Pliskova already has wins over Serena. She knows she could win and with Martinez’s help I think now that maybe she could. Kerber has faded out here so the Eastbourne form is devalued a bit and Pliskova lost a set to Hsieh so not a cut and dried with her. I was impressed however with the mindset that got her back to win v Hsieh. That was Martinez at work. Old Pliskova would have lost that match. She can win.

Cori Gauff – And so to the old Romantics favourite to win from here! She’s 27.0 now having been at 17.0 Thursday night. So if you are an old Romantic, you ought to be on! I was so impressed with the way she beat Rybarikova that I thought it was on at that point. Then so dismayed by her first set and three quarters v Hercog where she was going out for playing bat bat junior tennis on centre court at Wimbledon. What was she thinking?? Then suddenly,from the mists and depths of human ingenuity, the light bulb shone. The moon came out from behind the clouds. Standing on the brink of defeat, Gauff suddenly remembers how she needs to play to win against the seniors! Hercog wobbled with the double fault on match point but by that stage I thought Gauff had it covered. And like Rybairkova before her, in general Hercog played her best stuff from thereon. It was no longer enough. She did physically wilt aswell but that also made no difference I think. Gauff was now back in belief mode. She’d remembered her game and showed once more why it is a possible. She could do this. Beating the big guns starts now and we find out whether that is folly to expect her to beat them. But if you could choose one from the five still in to try out on first, it would be Halep on grass! I’ll be trading that game. She could make a mark on Halep although I’d doubt she could do the come from behind on her now like Ostapenko did to win the French. She will need to be quick out of the blocks this time.

That set and three quarters she showed Hercog will be munched by Halep. She’s a super fit and confident in her post slam win phase. She munched Azarenka last round. No problem. 

But this is grass. Gauff gets out quick and serves well first few games, it could get interesting. And if she goes all the way and wins this playing her lifetime best – which is what it will need to be – well, the Old Romantic in me remembers Sharapova and Ivanovic and Tracy Austin at the US Open. It can be done. Simply cannot rule it out on what I’ve seen so far. The comeback v Hercog was sublime. It really was. 

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN – Eliminated

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

3-45 WORCESTER

Good weekend on the horses too with the markets following me rather than the other way round which is always a good sign but means you have to get your bets on quicker! Playing back over fences on Monday angling at an outsider so that might be less true here. Did have a third flat race to go at in the 3-00 Ayr taking on Warning Fire with Jordans Electrics but have come back to this one because I like how short they are going on Boomarang who has to give a stone to the whole field.

Not that there is much to take Boomarang on with. Just the two really with Lough Har a possible third if taking well to the jumps. Richard Johnson stays loyal to Finalshot who strictly speaking has the beating of Pink eyed Pedro and can certainly improve which is what gives him a chance against Boomarang. I like Pink Eyed Pedro though at the price and am prepared to have a go in good form at a better priced winner. The run LTO at Ffos Las was only his second over hurdles (multiple point and hunter chase winner) and comes out with a speed figure only just behind that achieved by Boomarang. And although this is not a handicap the weight differentials might compensate for that with Boomarang carrying seven pound more than he has before whilst Pink Eyed Pedro carries nine pound less. 

That might do it and at the prices I’m prepared to have a go with Finalshot as LIM cover. The only downside to my rationale is that hurdles were omitted due to low sun that day at Ffos las and that does skew things somewhat. 

So keeping stakes low and at the advertised prices, liabilities likewise.

Recommendations:

0.4pt LAY on BOOMARANG (around 1.76 ; no greater than 2.0)

0.1pt BACK on PINK EYED PEDRO

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

6th:    +0.88 (+1.139) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.2

7th:   +0.643(+1.782) Lay @ 2.7 : Back @ 3.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 122/182 = 67.03% :   BACKS: 34/121 = 28.09%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

To Follow Horse to trade in running on Saturday:

5-20 SANDOWN – Light Up Our Stars @ 9/1

Further upheld the Raise You form with a strong run as an outsider.

Good trade backed at 27.0 and laid back in running at 4.2

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.4431 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 3)

Wimbledon Fourth Round on Monday:

Petra Kvitova to beat Johanna Konta @ 10/17

Stake = 0.4431 points

Free bet and I was tossing a coin between Serena to beat Carla at 2/11 and

this and price has determined. Kvitova will have an edge in class and mindset

and the surface is also hers and not conclusively Konta’s. Johanna has been 

playing well but her defeats to Ostapenko and Jabeur on grass this year do 

sway me. Her mindset also remains dubious at the crunch. No such fears for

Kvitova who looks to have the hunger for a third title to me. Definitely has the 

class. Jabeur acts as a direct formline between to the two on grass with both

playing her recently. Jabeur beat Konta fairly easily.  

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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