BOZmail – 8th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

TUESDAY JANUARY 8th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

3-25 BANGOR

Hands up if you hedged Indian Opera in running! O, ye of little faith! And that includes me I’m afraid. Told yer I was cautious didn’t I? I waited for 1.1 after backing at 3.5 so no big deal but I have to say my nerve broke. I could not believe Indian Opera was so good. Or was it that Nefyn Point was so bad? Seeing as he lost second and was never in the race probably was the latter. The Sea Story pointer hadn’t been promising (but was an early handicap so perhaps not as bad as it looked) but I think it’s fair to say that that Zakharova form is worth something. Indian Opera jumped like a stag and never let up the blistering pace. Could be useful. Gets on my to follow list for that scintillating performance (expected by the stable obviously as the all morning market move demonstrated – or was it us lot moving the price?) and takes the winning streak to 15. Getting close to record breaking now!

A novice hurdle At Bangor to try to notch up the sixteen. Despite Monday, I’m still treading with caution as there is a lot of low grade trappy racing around this time of year and I know less about this lot than I did about yesterday’s. Should be between the top three in the betting and the clear lay on my speed figures is Pipe’s Know The Score so if you can get a lay around the 7/4 suggested by tissue, that’s a safe play. Might be ok going up to 3/1 if needs as likely favourite Two For Gold looks strong to me on form behind Elixir De Nutz who has gone on to win grade one since. Itchy Feet was in that race too so hot form in the Boz’s eyes and wouldn’t want to lay Two for Gold. Trio for Rio not out of it with the champ on board but I’m hoping he’ll help keep the lay price on Pipe’s up for us by drifting as looks to have it to do with the fav.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on KNOW THE SCORE

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 30/35 = 85.71% :   BACKS: 5/21 = 23.8%

(my thanks to the eagle eyed statistician who has drawn my attention to the error in my posting of the Lay strike rate on December 18th. I settled Midnight Chill as a full point loser on the strike rate – conscious of the fact that we had lost on the day’s bet. My watcher however points out that strictly speaking Midnight Chill was only a half point loss strike rate wise as we laid Middlebrow successfully also on that day. So whilst the P/L suffered, the statistical strike rate less so. I have amended above – always happy to improve scores retrospectively! And thanks again for pointing it out. Good to see you on the ball out there! )

BOZ)

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera

 

                           RUNNER ON TUESDAY:

3-45 AYR – RIBBLE VALLEY – 0.25pt WIN

 

Was very impressive over course and distance on debut but not over enamoured by likely price and not a gimme having to give weight and overcome penalty. You have to be good to do that and not tried soft ground before so definitely not one to go overboard on.I always give them a chance though after they’ve impressed me initially. Will need to have improved further. Let’s see if he has. Will stay on the list if he wins this but likely to disappear if he doesn’t.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Nothing doing here at the moment whilst I ponder the next step.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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