BOZmail – 8th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY FEBRUARY 8th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.348 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.1029 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

2-05 WARWICK

Disappointing end to the week with both Nicholls runners underperforming and the LIM 100% record went down to the factor that Annie Mc was indeed the far more natural jumper. Hadn’t expected that to be enough and Bryony also boobed in not giving it a front running ride I’d say but there you go.Probably wouldn’t have made any difference the way she jumped. Never get them all right and have to regroup after a first setback and on to a back only race on Saturday with our to follow stable runner worthy of a back as 13/8 favourite in this black type event.

Its a fairly competitive affair with Rouge Vif my idea of the danger second time back after a wind op.Djingle is the dark horse coming over from Ireland but Nube Negra should have them covered on form so far as one of the star lights of the Skelton stable albeit that has been downgraded from Cheltenham entry after the defeat LTO at Sandown. That was still a good enough effort to take this however and on a stable line through Baddesley Knight, I’d expect Skelton to know where he stands with the Moonlighter/Precious Cargo formline and expect the course and distance form and experience to be put to good use.

Recommendation:

0.2pt BACK on NUBE NEGRA @ 13/8 or greater if you can get it.

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/5 = 80%  Backs: 0/1 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

7th: -0.288 (+0.348) Lay @ 1.96

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Catterick (Feb 10)

Nube Negra  

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* – Entered for Plumpton (Feb 10)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9)

Normandy Soldier* –

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9), Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for Exeter (Feb 9) & the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on FRIDAY:

1-50 KEMPTON – SAINT DE REVE @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

(Backed @11.0 : Hedged 0.075pt @8.0 before the off and 0.1pt @ 5.8 in running) 

= P/L + 0.0245 pts

Price drifted significantly so a much better potential trade than expected and he ran well to the point of trading without ever really looking a likely winner. I stood to win +0.495 if he did go on to win so my trade stayed heavily slanted to that eventuality (which proved a mistake) but managed a small plus again out of a loser which is the name of the game. I think Saint de Reve comes off the list however in view of that disappointing finish. Looked a very tired horse when he fell.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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