BOZmail – 8th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY DECEMBER 8th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +15.7327 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +67.5925 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-00 HUNTINGDON

The Peterborough was the favourite prep race for my horse of all horses Best Mate and I have strong vibes to play here despite us taking on Top Notch again who has done us once this year already.

It is fairly tight between the top three and if anything, Aso might be the class although distance might be shorter than required for him. La Bague au Roi we know now is a horse who doesn’t like soft ground so any rain or sign of Storm Unpronounceable and we might be wise to abort. Weather forecasters however are predicting benign stuff for time and place and good to soft should be ok. The mares allowance does give her a big shout and with the champ in situ I’m fairly strong on her. Waiting to see how Saturday pans out before I decide on staking but it’s a clear pick for me. La Bague au Roi to win and Aso as our cover. Top Notch was impressive in his fight LTO but I’m still convinced he isn’t quite top drawer over fences. We shall see.

Stop press: They backed Nuts Well like they knew what I worked out last night and we were unlucky not to get paid on the 11.0 taken last night because of the rule 4. Still, a welcome kickstart to the month and a few of those sheckels reinvested in the Greatrex mare.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on TOP NOTCH ( around 3.0 :no greater than 3.3)

0.15pt BACK on LA BAGUE AU ROI (around 3.0 or better if you can get it)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 207/312 = 66.34% :   BACKS: 56/209 = 26.79%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

7th:   +0.898 (+0.942) Lay @ 3.13 : Back @ 7.04

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Wenceslaus 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Normandy Soldier – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Ribble Valley 

Kid Commando 

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

Esprit Du Large

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-50 SANDOWN – NUBE NEGRA @ 11/4 – 0.25pt BACK – 2nd

(Backed @ 6.0 : Hedged 1pt in running @ 1.66) = P/L +0.735 points

The plunge on Torpillo made for a classic trade situation with such a drift on NN and he looked a distinct possible winner only to be outstayed up the hill by Williams’ rag with the fav well cooked. I could see how well the Welsh runner was going though and considered it a 50-50 over the last couple of fences so hedged a point to make it roughly a same win either way (although in my hurry slanted a little too much toward the loss so was shouting for the other one at the end! Such is the pressure of inplay trading especially at the end of races). Excellent run by the Skelton horse however who stays on the list. His conqueror also climbs on.

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

1-30 HUNTINGDON – TEA CLIPPER @ 9/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Ground will be softer than faced so far so that is an unknown factor and Fransham is a credible danger on paper and on times in the softer ground. Tea Clipper has the champ in the saddle however and has looked a horse to follow until he gets beat so once more I leave the trade option to you. I shall be paddock watching and leaving my hedge to see how things pan out in running. Quite hopeful of a Dicky Johnson double on the day!

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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