BOZmail 8th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

TUESDAY DECEMBER 8th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 119/168 = 70.83%  Backs : 33/104 = 31.73%

12-15 UTTOXETER

If you got the early prices you sidestepped the mess the non runner made of the market on Monday and I did think Not The Chablis was coming to win his race but the problem was always not whether he reversed a 25 length defeat by Armattiekan but whether he could close the 7 lengths he had to find on Brotherly Company who ultimately jumped the better and prevailed. We got the value. Just not quite the result. Deficit wiped however so December starts again here!

I don’t think Saint Dalina is a 6/4 shot to win this handicap hurdle at Uttoxeter and although I had a hard job deciding the play between this and the 3-08 at Fontwell I do think ultimately that I’m happier that we get Saint Dalina beat. Has gone up 11lb since the win before lockdown and 4lb of that is for getting beat LTO – form that hasn’t held up well. That pre lockdown win over Jac Brown was a decent effort but getting weight that day from one that has progressed well so Saint Dalina’s subsequent effort does have to go down as a disappointment that she couldn’t win NTO.

The problems with this play were with what gets her beat and we saw how that can be thrown into disarray when the second fav becomes a non-runner as happened on Monday. Ultimately I don’t think there is strength in depth up against Saint Dalina hence my slight unease. Neither Tawseef nor Transpennine Star are strong second favs and of the three I might slightly prefer Saint Dalina despite her weight penalties.

That does of course however open the way for the outsiders and the top two in the weights do actually look the two biggest dangers despite being nothing near as longer prices as my initial tissue promised. It had Closing Ceremony at 20/1 and Cook the Books at 12/1 but both opened at 8/1 with the bookies.

You have to make some caveats for Closing Ceremony because of age and recent form but at his best he does deserve his place at the top of the weights and he has clattered down a whack in his OR to be allowed to race in this. He’d eat it at his best and has black type on his CV. 11 years old is old though for a hurdler and you have to think speed is not what it once was. Even so, still just about value to teach the young whippersnapper a lesson so I’ll chance it to small stakes. Cook the Books is the LIM cover and is also value but I take Emma Lavelle as more the trainer I want to be with.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SAINT DALINA (around 2.5)

0.05pt BACK on CLOSING CEREMONY (around 9.0 and better if you get offered)

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

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LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

7th:    +0.147 (+0.022) Lay @ 2.24 : Back @ 8.0

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BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +52.2757points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.3928 points (+12.3928 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.8234 points (+41.8234 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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