BOZmail – 8th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 8th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-50 SANDOWN

 

Oh, Socksy,socksy, I called you a moody madam and you just wouldn’t go past! Couldn’t have backed Late Date with monopoly money. That was one you had to be working in the stable to know about and the late plunge did occur. One of the frustrations of this tipping/gambling lark but another example of why LIM was invented. The surefire can’t win paid for the loss on our sulky Socksy and still left us a profit. Years of being frustrated by seconditis has led me thus and hope you find it refreshing to – as one reviewer once said of me – ‘ earn interest from defeat ‘. Sums me up I reckon!

From one head case horse to another on Saturday which is not now going to be quite the madcap day I expected as two strong to follow fancies are declared non-runners.That time of year and I think there is also some doubt about Diakali turning up for this race but if he does I recommend a small back. Nearly went without an LIM on the day as all qualifiers do have robust favourites that are not easy to oppose and I do still have the Homework horse in The Becher Chase plus the second leg of the staggered acca running as you’ll see below.

Diakali is a to follow horse of mine however and does have an abundance of talent even if he has his share of quirks and is a typical headstrong type that Gary Moore is always attracted to – superb as he and his offspring are at teaching horses to settle.

Went off a bit crazy LTO at Chelters and was a tad lucky to win although we won’t really know what he had up his sleeve with the weird end to that race. Dear Sire falling when cantering past and Skelton’s horse ducking under the rails to chase an invisible hound! Never seen anything like that in a race before.

So Diakali racked up a third win in a row after two easy peasy debut races in the UK following his switch from the all conquering Willie Mullins yard. Mullins is reputed to have called Diakali ‘as nutty as a fruitcake’ after his antics on the Irish circuit and it’s hard still to know how good he might become. I believe in the Moore magic though but he will have to be good to win this. Lalor and Dynamite Dollars also look top drawer to me and although my figures are suggesting Lalor could be a winning favourite – so impressive was he in dismissing another to follow horse of mine Dynamite Dollars LTO. I’m working on my theory again that Nicholls has a good record of knowing when he reckons he can reverse a previous result and so DD is in there because he thinks he has a chance. He’ll act as cover if Diakali doesn’t get his head together to be competitive.

Not over confident about this however so a minimal play after a week of winning races as bank management strategies come to the fore.  Never ever keen to give winnings back.

.

 

Recommendation:

0.15pt LAY on LALOR

0.1pt BACK on DIAKALI

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 6/7 = 85.71%

                                          BACKS: 1/5 = 20%

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one.)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 8th:

SECOND LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat ST NEOTS @ best price 7/5 with Bet Stars  – 0.33 pts

 

Reds have dropped to 16th again in the table following the two last gasp draws in their last two games but that has worked to help keep the price up for this one at bottom three side St Neots who are not the league’s most fancy outfit and have struggled for any kind of form so far this season. Redditch remain a top six side in the current form table and Smith has put together now a squad of burgeoning talent that continues to reflect a marvellous team spirit – Smith’s claim to fame as a manger to get that psychology aspect right. The pleasing thing for me about the draw against Kings Lynn last week was the way that goalkeeper Reece Francis – who had looked a possible Achilles when I saw them at Kettering the midweek before because of his reluctance to come for crosses – kept them in the first half against the Linnets with a string of excellent saves. It could have been out of sight by half time but shotstopper specialist Francis is as his record as a penalty saver also confirms.

Outfield, Redditch now have a reliable goalscoring quartet in Reynolds, Piggon, Leachman-Whittingham and ALI and the reliable back four trio of Ashmore,Evans and Parsons makes for a classy looking set up now who should have seriously too much for the non entities of  St Neots. A confident win call and if you are coming to the service after missing last Saturday’s result, I think it safe to start with this as a first leg remembering to place stake back into bank after the hopefully successful result.

 

HOMEWORK HORSES FROM THE LOCAL TRACK for SATURDAY DECEMBER 8th:

1-30 AINTREE – JUST A PAR @ 33/1 – 0.25pt WIN

                                     HIGHLAND LODGE  – 0.1pt PLACE

 

A Brucie bonus this Saturday and Homework Horses will be an occasional BOZmail extra throughout 2019  whenever I have one that I strongly want to back that doesn’t come into the LIM spectrum. Moffat is my local stable long watched and I study Jimmy’s patterns and traits and know he has been targeting the Becher Chase annually since the success of Highland Lodge in 2015 (placed both years since) onhis debut run for the yard. Lodgey runs again this year and has a chance again but 12 years old now and may well be in as pacemaker for the new acquisition Just A Par who has similar profile to that which HL turned up at the yard with. Proven over the national fences and not run for nearly 600 days. Other people’s cast offs is what Jimmy is great at. Beefs them up and sprinkles his magic dust and whammo. They win at big odds. Minella Charmer was the sighter I was waiting for in the week finishing third at Haydock at 66/1. There’s usually a warm up indication that Jimmy has the yard ready to come in from a spell on the cold list.

Not a rocket science tip as obviously this is a mega competitive race and things need to fall into place to make it happen but it will be no surprise if it comes in. The place on Lodgey is a loyalty bet for me as the horse owes me nowt and I won’t be surprised to see either or both bets land. Part of my small stake for big returns approach to compliment the daily cashbuilder grind that is LIM. Spend a small bit from the winnings of LIM every now and then to hopefully help the annual profits take a leap forward. That’s my strategy long practised now.

Homework horses – like the staggered acca – will only happen now and then. I wait patiently for the right opportunity to come along.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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