BOZmail – 8th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 8th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

8-15 SANDOWN (+6-45 SANDOWN)

Back on the bike Wednesday and a tad unlucky with Sinnderella who came a bit wide but did look on to challenge two out with poor old Luke bumping along again in third. I dunno if Sally would have won under a Lester Piggott forward bodyweight ride but I’m pretty sure he would have finished closer. That sit back in the saddle never helps. So says he who has never sat on a horse in his life. But in best Jasper Carrot style, “ I’ve seen millions!”. 

I was at Cartmel agricultural show today for the Shire horse parade and the Cartmel pony Grand National which was won by Timmy Murphy’s son Lucas. Sadly they never announced the name of the winning horse! But I was able to practice my paddock fitness watch before the event and can happily say that we were on the winner! Interestingly also, there was an (unexpected) faller in the event which hadn’t been part of the plan but the stricken jockey stayed down curled in a ball but in view of the field coming back round to jump the fence again in under ten seconds. There being no time to doll the fence or get the paramedics involved,the prostrate jockey was quickly dragged out of the way by a parent/steward. Fairly lucky that the child concerned was not suffering from a broken neck I thought! Happily she got up and walked away once the slight concussion abated. So much for health and safety at the races!

On to the more apposite matter of Thursday’s LIM.Wanted to stick with opposing short priced favs which is my want at this time of year. Two candidates I have had to (semi) dismiss however that nevertheless you should keep an eye on. Three Little Birds ran and won Wednesday at Bath and is 5/4 fav for the last at Brighton on Thursday. I’d be keen to take that on but distinct chance it will come out in the morning so I’ve passed on that. Native Tribe is 8/11 on the tissue in the 6-45 at Sandown  but is wearing Godlphin second colours and faces three unraced of which the other Godolphin runner is a complete unratable but very interesting especially as Godolphin had three in the race Herman Hesse ran his debut in and connections will thus be clued into the Gosden inmate who would be my back here. Started poorly in that debut and lagged behind but got the hang and stayed on pleasingly and can be expected to improve a shedload for this event which is a race Gosden farms. Too Darn Hot last year – one of four winners in the past ten years. 3/1 Herman Hesse and a name even sweeter than Nietzsche to the Boz’s ears so I’m very tempted with three unraceds as LIM cover who all have breeding that could make them competitive with Native Tribe whose FTO time wasn’t quick but on softish ground. So little back form makes it a guessing game and that imponderable called improvement comes into the equation so I have no reliable methods to deal with that and I thus pass the race (in theory) in favour of another I have where I do know stuff about the runners and can thus make a more informed decision. Be aware however that without this other race, I’d be backing Herman Hesse and laying Native Tribe – playing the market (which is a much more preferable one than the one I am tipping in) and going with that huge pull to the name and Gosden’s stat in the race positive. No science in that though. Those who prefer Boz’s science picks come with me the tipster into the 8-15 Sandown. Those who prefer Boz’s hunch gambling picks, stick with Herman Hesse!

Of course they could both win (or lose) and I shall only be pissed off if Herman wins but Rampant Lion doesn’t!

I am keen on Rampant Lion’s chance and have been able to run the science ringer over it after he ran Data Protection so close in our feature race last week. Watch the replay of that. He muffed the start but still got himself to the front half a furlong out before the Tudhope factor kicked in for us. This is also over half a furlong shorter and the William Jarvis stable is placed high on the in running % chart and all looks set for Rampant Lion to win his race here.

He is 2/1 fav however and to do literal LIM, I have to pay with a lay on Rock the cradle who is a bit meaty at 11/4 or 3/1 and could potentially drift further. So not too keen on that. I am happy to lay Rock the Cradle however in principle (and on race read) and if you do just want to play one race, this is it. The Boz however tries a new creative version where the lay is on the odds on Native Tribe also backing Herman Hesse and staking to show profit if Rampant Lion wins and Native Tribe does also. Dunno what version of LIM you’d call that. Never done it before but the appeal is in the prices and I’m never afraid to be creative! It breaks my discipline rule of narrowing down to one race and if you don’t feel I should be doing that, the 8-15 bet on Rampant Lion is the nap. Whether you pay for it with the lay on Rock the Cradle I leave to you.You have larger liability than me if you do. I’m paying for it with my LIM on the 6-45.

We’ll compare notes after and see who has egg on their faces most. It’s usually me when I come over all indecisive like this might be.I don’t feel indecisive however.

I feel like I just had a new approach idea! 

We’ll see. The proof as always is in the pudding.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on NATIVE TRIBE in the 6-45 Sand (around 1.75 :no greater than 1.8)    

0.05pt BACK on HERMAN HESSE (around 4.0 or better)

0.2pt BACK on RAMPANT LION (around 3.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

6th:        -0.48 (+0.4345) Lay @ 3.4

7th:        +0.39 (+0.8245) Lay @ 1.69 : Back @ 11.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 141/209 = 67.46% :   BACKS: 42/143 = 29.37%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

Piedita

James Watt

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.72 points.

Staggered acca number 16: (LEG 1)

Will shout at the emergence of the next staggered acca.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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