BOZmail – 8th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY APRIL 8th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

4-10 KELSO

Not much rain around Sunday or Monday so not ideal conditions NTO for our to follow horse Uno Valoroso but I stick with him as a possible value winner in a race very much like Sundays where a case can be made for most of the field. And let’s face it, with the jinx on staggered accas continuing, we are well advised to come and specialise in LIM for a while now. I seriously thought Wolves had brought us home when Jimenez scored the second brilliantly on 62 minutes. Hey ho.

Sporting Press has it to prove over this shorter distance as a Flemensfirth whose debut chase win advertised that stamina element. The weight taken off by using claimer Billy Garrity will help nullify penalty but lack of speed over the shorter distance can be expected to find him out. Not a strong lay but a lay in such a competitive race.I’m keen to employ the double lay too to soften the liability aspect as second fav Halycon Days also has strong negative in the current form of the Menzies yard. Down as low as 15% on the horses running to form which would have to be a serious concern for backers.

Oak Vintage,John Williams,Le Frank & Welcome Ben can all be made a case for on paper whilst all working at weights not ideal. That’s where Uno Valoroso comes to the fore as his only real negative is that there might not be enough rain around. Has won on good to soft though and certainly ran LTO like a horse getting ready to win again off a plausible mark.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on SPORTING PRESS (around 3.3 : Not greater than 4.0)

0.1pt LAY on HALCYON DAYS (around 4.4 ; Not greater than 5.0)

0.1pt BACK on UNO VALOROSO (around 8.5)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

7th:     +0.39 (+0.772) LAY @ 2.52 : BACK @ 12.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 80/112 = 71.42% :   BACKS: 18/72 = 25%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic – entered for Tuesday April 9th

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 8.75 points.

Staggered acca number 9: (LEG 1)

0.25pt WIN on Wolverhampton Wanderers to beat Watford at Wembley (live on BT) in 90 mins at best price (around 17/11) – LOST – 2-2

Blooming Heck! Thought that was home! Was this Murphy’s Law again? The Staggered acca really does look jinxed at the minute.

Will shout when the next weapons grade starter comes along.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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