BOZmail – 7th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY THIRTEEN:

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 7th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +11.3767 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

4-00 STRATFORD

Last three weeks has not been great and feels as if I’ve been coasting a bit. Certainly the approach of September hasn’t helped but time I also put my back into LIM which I have done for Saturday. As well as deciding what I’m doing with the staggered acca spot on the sheet and a slight overall review which I’ll go into in the next few days.

Saturday’s LIM first though and the George Pragnell Gold Cup which is a race I like historically. Where I saw Desert Orchid as an old man celebrity in 2002 and also watched AP McCoy ride one of his final races in on my eldest son’s birthday. Been celebrating that today (we tied for the Goadsbarrow Pitch & Putt Trophy!) and I’ve studied the card and feel quite bullish about the read. My colours are nailed to the mast of 2017 winner Play the Ace who has dropped to his mark (and more) and receives 20lb from Topofthecotswolds who is likely to start a shorter fav than the 7/4 currently quoted courtesy of those two 1s by his name and the fact that this is Twistys time of the year – a stat well known by the oddsmakers.Going to be well worth working to get best price lay on this one. Topofthecotswolds does have a fair chance on recent form although the 10lb penalty is harsh and a potential stopper. He is the young improver in the field but is held by Play the Ace on time figures if the Bowen horse is primed for this which he could well be. LIM cover is a bit thin as Shoal Bay looks held to me by Fingerontheswitch which makes the two outsiders of interest. For Good Measure is just not one of those besotted by chase fences and for all his stable/jockey and wind op plusses isn’t on my shortlist. So because Topofthecotswolds could have a race that falls in his lap despite his penalty and far from faultless jumping my approach to this race is a creative staking one. I do propose a lay on the fav and a financed back on Play the Ace as my fancy but I also propose a small stake CSF to see if I can’t land a smart return and put the last three weeks behind us. Quite bullish about chances. 

Tennis final I intend to leave alone and collect my 0.6pt outrights profit on Serena should she do as she threatens now. If you are still in need of hedging her in your outrights, be sure to have your finger on the button as Andreescu definitely presents a possible threat if she isn’t awed by the occasion. As with the McNally game where I took my hedge, this is where Serena is vulnerable now against the class youngster.

Serena will need to overcome her nerves and make a strong start to the match. Could be a classic watch!

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS (around 2.75 or lower : no greater than 3.0)

0.2pt BACK on PLAY THE ACE (around 9.0)

6 x 0.01pt CSF on PLAY THE ACE,FINGERONTHESWITCH & TOPOFTHECOTSWOLDS

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9  

5th:    -0.44 (-0.44) Lay @ 1.88    

6th:    -0.19 (-0.63) Lay @ 1.38

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 154/233 = 66.09% :   BACKS: 44/157 = 28.02%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: 

So the final acca repaired damage only. I’ll take time out now to consider the next step and keep you all informed of decisions as they are made.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA                                                   Current P/L = +0.6 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer -Entered for Perth (Sep 9)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad  

Miss Celestial – Entered at York (Sep 8) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES on FRIDAY:

5-00 MUSSELBURGH – Kaizer @ 4/1

Backed @ 5.0 and hedged at 3.0 in running.

P/L = 0.0 points

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES on SATURDAY:

4-10 HAYDOCK – Waldpfad @ 12/1

Competitive race but form is working out well for the German horse. Back at best price you can get and hedge in running. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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