BOZmail 7th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

MONDAY SEPTEMBER 7th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +15.2137 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.7744 points (+4.7744 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.1748 points (+11.1748 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.4135 points (+0.4135 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

US OPEN report DAY SIX:

Serena took my banker score to 8/8 fighting back from a poor first set and Pironkova was simple class in bringing the nap home but I went to bed depressed when Keys lost first set v Cornet in the tie-break and then retired injured. Thought that brought my acca and 100% banker record down but forgot about the changed rules now that retirement matches are voided (not so with all bookmakers so worth checking before you place accas. Used to be first set played and result stood and still so with some. I do all my stuff with Betfair Sportsbook these days just for ease and they confirm that retirements are now voided on the Sportsbook part of the site). So I woke up to the good news that Kenin had won making me 9/9 on bankers and both accas also delivered. Happy days. Needed something to rescue 2020 and tennis is doing its best!

Iga Swiatek succumbed to the noticeably blooming ex-champ Azarenka who is in the same sort of category as Pironkova coming back in after motherhood. But as a top gunner Slam champ (twice) and younger too. Her road to getting back to top gun status has been quite long and the new breed who had come along in her absence were giving her trouble. Interesting to see if she really has got it back now. The win against Swiatek suggests maybe. The Pole played well and showed promise again but as suspected she ain’t quite ready to progress to top 20 just yet. Certainly getting there but still a few mental issues to sort out.

So we hit last 16 stage – the point at which I do my sweep to see if I can call quarter winners (and thus the semi final line-up) and go on from there to predict likely winner therefrom to slant the portfolio accordingly. The second week is more about the portfolio management and the match bets wind down a tad. Sunday night is just about shouting Shelby Rogers home in her match v Petra Kvitova and being ready to hedge the Kvitova portfolio position should she fall behind at any stage. There are some fourth round possible match bet plays however, but more for Monday. First my sweep through the quarters to try and predict semi final line up and eventual winner.

First Quarter: Start with the hardest to call. The market has Brady fav and I did say I heard the dogs barking on her at the start. She is playing her best tennis ever but I still find it hard to have her fav in this wide open foursome. She has to overcome double Slam champ Angelique Kerber next. The German has also, like Azarenka, brought her A game here and whilst she has always been flighty and not in love with the fame and acclaim of being a slam champ, she is still a mighty player on her day. Strong and utterly suited to hard court. Very, very hard to call that outcome which happens tonight but with gun against head I take Kerber’s experience over Brady’s home advantage. Mainly because Kerber is the betting value. Other 4th round is Putintseva v Martic. Another very tricky call with no back form. Martic the higher ranked but still a middling player for me. Don’t see her as an outright winner. Putintseva is a one dimensional player most suited to clay but making great strides results wise on hard court surface in recent years. And that down to her attitude. A street fighter who is mentally very tough and intimidating and I like her for betting purpose when she has a back plus over others. She reliably delivers. Her only back plus here is over Brady and it is fair to say she is marginally below Martic on class and severely below Kerber in that category. Hence she is the 6.4 outsider of 4. But in the theme for this year’s US open where the outsiders do look to have a chance of lifting the title to me, I take her as my speculative and certainly value pick to win this quarter. She can rattle Martic into mistakes and then needs to catch Kerber on an off day (always possible) and has back score over Brady. Kerber is the second pick in this tough quarter. She is also betting value at 4.5 and will win it if it comes down to class.

1st quarter winner: Yulia Putintseva @ 6.4  Second best: Angelique Kerber @ 4.5

Second Quarter: You sort of already have my thoughts on this quarter. Osaka is worthy fav at 2.32 and beats Annet Kontaveit tonight on a 4-0 back score in every department other than possible fitness doubt. Still playing heavily strapped (as was Pironkova last night). Not stopping her. When they are sensibly nursing and managing a hamstring tweak it often doesn’t. Running around is affected. Shotmaking less so). She is a fourth round banker to make quarter final and Rogers v Kvitova you already know my thoughts on. Rogers is an underdog but she has back score and she could do it. It is her surface. Kvitova less so. Rogers has to believe but the betting value is all with her and she needs our support (fingers crossed also) to make it through. Her 3-0 back score with Osaka is more nebulous and historical but its there and gives her a chance there too. Interestingly she is back score negative v Kontaveit but I don’t expect that match up to happen if Osaka stays focussed and fit. So Rogers has a shot at semis. She is American underdog also which counts for something at Flushing Meadow. Definite chance at 10.5 to win the quarter so is the betting pick. Should she lose to Kvitova tonight, Osaka is the clear QF fancy with strong back score over the Czech especially so on the surface.

2nd quarter winner: Shelby Rogers @ 10.5 Second best: Naomi Osaka @ 2.32

Third quarter: Ok so I don’t go outsider of four in this one. Pironkova v Cornet marginally favours the Bulgarian and I do fancy her to keep the momentum and make that so am not hedging in my portfolio just yet. But Pironkova beating Serena is a massive shout (4-0 to the champ on back score) and although I would be shouting for her and don’t rule it out, it would depend on Pironkova having something now that she’s never had before. Desire to win her slam at last? Same thing for Serena who desperately wants to set the all time record. So realistically I have to say Pironkova makes QF and no further. I shall dream of being wrong on that as no doubt she will too! It is also outright betting value play but the quarter winner looks to come from the other 4th rounder. And guess what, it is Maria Sakkari! She has back score plus v Serena and Pironkova – the former very recent in the warm up tourney for this – the latter dating back to just before Pironkova retired out to become a mother. Maria Sakkari is a dark horse. One of the new breed improving vastly for the past two years and constantly notching strong scores without yet making breakthrough. But you get the impression that is coming sometime soon. Serena is 1.84 to win the quarter and of course if she shows her old self she will. But age is catching up to her now and a stern young thing with the talent and belief to usurp always has a chance against her now. Sakkari has already done it once. Now has to do it again. Serena famous for being mentally strong in these sort but also vulnerable in her legs these days if the youngster believes and is hungry enough. Sakkari is 4.6 to win the quarter and the value.

3rd quarter winner: Maria Sakkari @ 4.6 Second best: Serena Williams @ 1.84

Fourth quarter: Looks on paper to be between the big gun past slam champs Azarenka and Kenin but I go dark horse outside youngster again. Haven’t written much about (or over!) Karolina Muchova yet but she ousted Venus Williams here first round in efficient fashion and her comeback to win against Sorana Cirstea last night was future champion form. Total class and bottomless self belief. Cirstea always a tricky one on form and had breezed past Johanna Konta round before and for periods she did outclass Muchova. But this is another young player also improving in leaps and bounds every time she plays and she is mighty dangerous in the draw now. Has back score wins over Azarenka and Kenin already. She knows she could do it. And she’s 6.8 outsider of four to win the quarter. She does for me. Kenin the saver in this one. I think Azarenka, like Pironkova, will hit her buffer eventually. I could be wrong about that but because of her past record, Azarenka is no betting value now.

4th quarter winner: Karolina Muchova @ 6.8 Second best: Sofia Kenin @ 3.75   

And who does my sweep say at this point for overall winner? Well, it’s a big call and maybe more a make final than outright but I call Maria Sakkari at this stage. She has to beat Serena first and then Osaka or Kerber in the final. All big calls. But never one to shy away from an outsider as you know and it is the point of this bet. Both Sakkari and Muchova make it into the portfolio at this stage!

3rd ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE DRAW- SATURDAY:

Banker Treble: Madison Keys to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.3 – VOID

                           Sofia Kenin to beat Ons Jabeur @ 1.59 – WON

                           Serena Williams to beat Sloane Stephens @ 1.25   – WON

                            0.1pt STAKE: Returned P/L = +0.0987points

Value: Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Donna Vekic @ 2.72 -WON : P/L =+0.172points

  • 0.05pt FOUR TIMER – WON : P/L = +0.2203points

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4 – 2 x 0.3pt hedges taken @ 7.0 & 11.0  (+0.40)

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0 -0.3pt hedge @ 15.0   (-1.10)

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 75.0  (+7.65)

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0 -0.1pt hedge @ 170.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0 – 0.05pt hedge taken @ 60.0  – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on TSVETANA PIRONKOVA @ 100.0   (+5.50)

0.05pt BACK on MARIA SAKKARI @ 30.0               (+1.9)

0.05pt BACK on KAROLINA MUCHOVA @ 42.0    (+2.5)

REST OF THE FIELD    (+0.40)

 4th ROUND MATCH BET ACCAS – SUNDAY & MONDAY:

Naomi Osaka to beat Annet Kontaveit @ 1.54

Sofia Kenin to beat Elise Mertens @ 1.86  : 0.1pt DOUBLE

Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.98 : 0.1pt TREBLE

Maria Sakkari to beat Serena Williams @ 2.8 : 0.05pt FOUR TIMER

Total Stake Spend of : 0.25pt

Osaka and Kenin are the bankers and that – should it prove correct – pays for the other two. I’m fairly keen on Pironkova again although Cornet is tougher than Vekic and the market is catching on now. Cornet also seems to be riding her luck and has a charmed life passage through to here. But I’m still wholly behind the Bulgarian.

And see above about Sakkari being the one to stop Serena. It’s undoubtedly value. You never say never with Serena but she does get beat and those legs are gettable if the Greek girl makes her run!

You could play all four as trade singles of course. Prices are such to make that feasible. I’m sticking with accas for now though seeing as they are going well! Small outlay for bigger return and less risk. Sound bank management. You could also have a small acca on the four quarter winners. That is pretty speculative of course but a 0.01pt stake will return handsomely if I get all four right. My sensible head says the perm on the top two picks is the bet but that is a 24 bet perm which strikes me as not great bank management wise if all the second strings at shorter prices come in.

But I suppose a 0.001pt perm (i.e. a 10p perm costing £2-40) isn’t a bad shout bank management wise but the real profits come if all four first picks comes right so I stick to that. And that can be posted at a 0.001pt single bet costing just 10p! Makes it sound like I’m not that confident but the form I’m in does give it a chance. Of course the bubble can burst at any time and I do want to hold onto profits already won for the most part. So a playing up winnings with little risk 0.001pt quarters winner four timer for me!

US OPEN TRADES: +0.3213 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.8585 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND THREE: +1.1798 points

********************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 76/107 = 71.02%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

NO BET

The way they smashed into Orchestral Rain, you’d think it could not have got beat and that was classic LIM with the price we got on the winner if you were on that. If I’d known it  would be that price I would have included as a tip on here but at least I mentioned it so hopefully a few took the hint. Shortlisters will have done I know. Was nap of the day on there and a good example of me and the shortlist working in tandem. He picks the race, I do the form study slog. Paid off and also repaired the LIM situation here. 

I remain in very much September mode on here though. Not playing every day. Monday’s UK LIM qualifier is Getaround in the 4-10 at Perth who travels from Devon when Newton Abbot is on following day. What’s that all about? No idea. So that’s a fav that looks like it should win and I’ll swerve that. Looks an unfathomable typical September race other than that.

I did look at one race at Galway also but have decided to sit tight and keep focus on the tennis.Done lots of work there as you’ll see. And wait for the shortlist again at Newton Abbot on Tuesday. Very much a time of Bet less win more. Building up some winnings and trying really hard not to give it back on sloppy losers like Proper Ticket was!

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

6th:  +0.1764 (+0.0274) Lay @ 1.84

7th: NO BET

******************************************************************        

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 8)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

**********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

***************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *