BOZmail – 7th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

MONDAY OCTOBER 7th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.2887 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +58.536 points

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LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY 

2-50 STRATFORD

Two odds on Favs of Skelton’s at Uttoxeter both fell over on Sunday as the ultra aggressive jockey that is Harry Skelton beat them senseless as they tired and were not able to get competitive in the ground. Not my favourite jockey as the ruthlessness he shows does pay dividends on occasion but I wouldn’t want to be the owner having to nurse the wounds of his/her purchase! They paid a bleeding mint for Maire Banrigh so maybe tender handling will be seen but there to be taken on at 4/6 on chase debut with a couple who have chase experience there to pick up the bits if Skelton whips into a fall again. Song of the Sky is interesting on Irish form especially if the ground goes soft.Charlie Mann’s stable also in fine fettle.

Meanwhile quietly on the form book, a horse I’ve put up before comes out for its chase debut at a tasty price from a stable I respect. Wenceslaus was a non runner for us last time pretty much as Tokaramore was yesterday when I was sweet on the chance but Bridgewater is noted for his meticulous placing and his version of being ruthless is declaring a non runner if things aren’t A1 on the day. Gets a stone and 8lb off the Skelton horse who will have to lump 12 stone 6 round in rain softened ground. Forecast more showers in the Stratford area tomorrow.  Wenceslaus handled good to soft ok when seen LTO but perhaps also wouldn’t want it too soft.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on MAIRE BANRIGH ( around 1.7: No greater than 1.96)

0.1pt BACK on WENCESLAUS

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 168/257 = 65.36% :   BACKS: 48/173 = 27.74%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

6th:    +0.145 (-0.226) Lay @ 4.09 : Back @ 5.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ KELSO on Sunday:

2-50 KAIZER @ 5/2 – 0.25pt BACK – WON – P/L = +0.625

This is a real promising to follow horse for the winter. They put one up against him and backed it but we was streets ahead and he carried his penalty with aplomb. I remained confident in running and didn’t bother to trade – such was the class he was oozing. Keep him firmly in the notebook.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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