BOZmail 7th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 7th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +29.2594 points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7701 points (+5.9171 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.5278 points (+24.5278 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 85/119 = 71.42%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

2-54 SEDGEFIELD

Rebecca Menzies the key to Wednesday. Very nearly going for Return Ticket as the LIM but he’s a To Follow and has a slight doubt again with it being on an undulating track at Sedgefield so although he wins on my Race Read and is thus a To Follow Back and not a trade, he does get beaten for value in the fact that Tonto’s Spirit is 18/1 to win this Handicap Chase. He won the Novice Chase here last year and is a horse I know from Cartmel who is on a very good mark for this despite having to give weight all round and over two stone to My Renaissance. Hasn’t been in great form so far this year but Diane Sayer’s string have been in form and he’s just too good a price to miss here. The front two in the market both carry penalties for wins LTO and I did consider a double lay with the shortlist making Tonto’s Spirit a single selection for the race but still some caution around and done my homework to think that Menzies’ Raecius Felix is the more likely to get beat. Is the better stayer of the three and Tonto does have a small question mark over the distance. Will need to get home but the value is undoubted and with the other two maybe burning each other out, it is the value in the back I am chasing and times and weights suggest My Renaissance holds sway anyways in the front two so I will hold him as LIM cover just in case.

Stamina is the only card that may play to Reacius Felix but with the weather forecast suggesting the rain will mainly stay away, I figure he won’t get help from the weather. He is also, like Return Ticket, a discarded Richard Collins horse. Ownership not a negative I use a lot but that’s anothe reason Return Ticket isn’t the LIM of the day too. Tonto’s Spirit is. Great to have two races to chew the fat over on again. Her’s hoping I’ve got it right.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on RAECIUS FELIX (around 2.75 and no higher than 3.3)

0.1pt BACK on TONTO’S SPIRIT (around 19.0)

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

******************************************************************   

FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY ELEVEN)

 Were you watching this morning as Collins played her delayed match v Jabeur? You are excused if you were working and can’t watch. Those who did know we got scuppered on the lay Svitolina pre semis strategy for the portfolio because Svito got startlingly knocked out by the qualifier Nadia Podoroska. Fiona Ferro also failed us despite winning first set v Kenin. Collins however not only won through but was offered up at 510.0 in the outrights this morning when a set and 3-0 down only to go on and win. I didn’t get the 510.0 but I got 0.02pt matched at 500.0. Too good to resist. That was bigger than I backed Tig at before the tournament began and a price on a player I had identified as plausible to give both Kenin and Kvitova trouble in the bottom half of the draw. This is women’s tennis. There are some feisty players out there and Collins is one of them. Tremendous comeback by her and now she is layable at 20.0 and was as low as 13.5 (missed most of that early on her. Too busy glued to the Podoroska effort and knew I had pulled off the play and would get a great hedge back whatever). Tremendous value on the exchanges in general. Trading the thing again. Collins doesn’t have to beat anyone else from here now. Her job done boosting the Swiatek price and all the other players with it. The Pole gave me slight palpitations losing first game v Trevisan but has steadied now and as I write is a set and a break up. Off to shout her home so she doesn’t waste the money Danielle has won us! Hope you were on. If work got in your way, consider finding someone at home to play on your behalf. I can’t always be at the live trade when I want to be. Have paid colleagues to do it for me on occasion. When the gen is good and the outsiders are winning like they have been at Roland Garros so far this year, it is something to consider!!

Nothing more to be done now except watch to see how Danielle gets on and whether she and Iga make final. That’d be rather nice! Might come back in on semi final match bets. Might not. Time to shout ‘bookies favourite’ Iga Swiatek home!!

Outrights Portfolio- Quarter Finals Position:

Iga Swiatek  (+1.705)

Martina Trevisan – ELIMINATED

Elina Svitolina – ELIMINATED

Nadia Podoroska (+0.505)

Petra Kvitova (+0.505)

Laura Siegemund (+0.505)

Danielle Collins Backed 0.02pt@500.0in play:(+10.105) hedged 0.4pt@20.0(+2.505)

Sofia Kenin (+0.505) 

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

*************************************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on the flat on Tuesday:

8-20 SOUTHWELL – CUSTARD THE DRAGON @ 12/1 – 0.2pt BACK – LOST

Serves me right for going back in on the flat. First trade in ages where I got a great price but never any chance to hedge. And ran very flat from the start as market suggested. So they knew. Jockey tried hard. Horse looked knackered. Goes off the list for that. Graham never had his winner at Catterick either so he knew for sure!

Tough game when it’s like that but all things considered, despite everything else, not had much of that this year. Onwards.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

HORSE TO FOLLOW over jumps on Wednesday:

1-45 SEDGEFIELD – RETURN TICKET @ 2/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Theatre Legend is a danger on my figures whilst Snookered I think would want more juice in the ground but my reason for backing Return Ticket to get his head in front at last over jumps is the recent runs to have sharpened him up against potentially ring rusty opposition. Trade if you feel unsure but the BOZ is behind his man this time. This is a horse I’ve watched gaining experience and on his effort at Perth two runs back could win this. Let’s hope he comes up the hill after the last!!

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

***************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *