BOZmail 7th NOVEMBER

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Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

SATURDAY NOVEMBER 7th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +43.7196 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.6353 points (+8.6353 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 44.6848 points (+36.6848 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.5485 points (-0.4515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 102/140 = 72.85%  Backs : 28/90 = 31.11%

2-40 AINTREE

This is a funny sort of LIM choice race with several qualifiers to choose from as well on Saturday. All tricky in their own ways. This one has been a case of impossible to settle on a likely winner. The top four do all have claims although Thomas Darby would be my likely choice with a gun to my head. Summerville Boy though is a class animal and it probably will come down to which one comes back best from the lay off. So no back for me here and I’m hedging on my lay too. Splitting half stake between Call Me Lord and Ch’tibello. The Skelton horse would actually be my fourth in the pecking order class wise and as the oldest he would arguably also have the least improvement in him. Not that they are all that close on my figures. My figures have Thomas Darby and Summerville Boy ahead so I stick with that and have a conservative oppose the other two.

Recommendations:

0.1pt LAY on CALL ME LORD (around 3.8)

0.1pt LAY on CH’TIBELLO (around 4.0)

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LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

6th:  +0.4312 (+0.7325) Lay @ 3.4 : Backs @ 6.8 & 13.5

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE in the Breeders Cup on Friday:

8-10 Keeneland – BATTLEGROUND @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds

are offered.

I won’t pretend to have fully race read this. Way out of my league! Just very taken with this horse on his Royal Ascot showing and can see he has been saved and prepared for this tilt in the big one -The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Mile. Ryan Moore has gone over through quarantine to ride all the O’Brien horses and this looks to me like their best shout on Day One. I shall be trading the price pre-race and leaving myself some 1.1 and 1.01 hedge potential in running. It could be close!

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou 

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @Huntingdon (Nov 10) & Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9) & Hereford (Nov 10)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive 

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Hereford (Nov 10)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Zamani 

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy)

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ HEXHAM on FRIDAY:

1-45 – CHARM OFFENSIVE @ 16/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 4th

Backed @ 170.0 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 100.0 : P/L = +0.049points

Some pretty whacky prices on that trade and with an ISP of 66/1, it was pretty clear they didn’t expect him to win! I got some lay at 18.0 by taking that before the back but in order to make my profit, I had to go in play having backed at a whopper 170.0 and averaged out my hedge at 100.0. Actually bit of a risky way to play so not really recommended and in fact although clearly not ever ridden to win the race, did run reasonably and did his staying on at the end again as he had in that bumper. Should make up to a winner on the heavy ground sometime through this winter so stays on the list.

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-15 WINCANTON – FLIC OU VOYOU @2/5        

3-20 AINTREE – DEFI SACRE @ 7/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best prices you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds are offered.

Having seen the tissues, I’m not wild about price on either of these and I think Flic ou Voyou can be passed over as a single unless he drifts out towards evens. I would have slight question marks about him based on how he promised early last season and dribbled away therefrom. Has looked an improved horse this year but at that price I’m more inclined to lay than back but I will have a small fixed odds win double just out of loyalty and to keep the systematic approach toward ticking the late seasonal gains further in our favour.

I will also trade the Defi Sacre price as a single. He was in the top five favourite horses from last season and I’ve been waiting for his return. Not just me impressed by his attitude if that price is anything to go by! Get the best you can and trade here because it is after a lay off so there’s no guarantee he’ll be primed and this is a mighty competitive field.

Two races to enjoy watching more than anything for me but that fixed odds double and a pre race trade on Defi Sacre is my plan.

0.1pt WIN DOUBLE

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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