BOZmail – 7th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

TUESDAY MAY 7th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

5-20 EXETER

Funny old game. One minute you’re on a 15 day winning run, next minute you can’t pick a winner for tuppenny toffee. 7 of the last 8 lays incorrect although a case of just picking the wrong one of two again yesterday. Other came up lovely in the 2-40 Warwick. Makes yer spit sometimes but it is also what the test is all about. How you handle and work your way out of your losing runs. Can’t remember last time it was as bad as this for LIM though. Good 12 months.

And it gets your confidence. I’ve had a really good look at seven races for Tuesday and found something wrong with all of them whilst also knowing that’s me seeing the downside rather than the up. It’s as much about keeping your chin up as anything and in that vein I shall write this race up imagining that I’m still on my 15 day winning streak!

Giving Back has winning bumper form on the all weather and found it tougher on turf albeit in some decent races. Is opposed here on two premises 1/ being the debut and the fact that ability to jump slickly over hurdles has yet to be proved & 2/ in a race that will come down to jumping, Jaunty Soria has equivalent time figures and that added experience of having jumped fences pretty well in public on debut. Not so good LTO and that has to be forgiven but there is a possible excuse in reaction to the tongue strap which is left off again here. Form from Ludlow would have her joint fav in my eyes so 3/1 is approaching value. There is a negative in stable form aswell though so a race not to lump on once more. On the plus side, Nafaayes has some smart flat form so could be competitive speed wise if taking to jumping whilst Bossiney Bay wouldn’t be a back consideration for me in confident mood but does also bring experience of jumping at racing pace to the table in a race where that will count so is further LIM cover.

In form, I’d be making Jaunty Soria my back to small stake so in the spirit of keeping chin up, I’ll post that and keep the lay on Giving Back conservative. The name of the lay hasn’t escaped my notice and I’m hoping it proves ironic rather than realistic and that Murphys luck works in my favour for a change!

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on GIVING BACK (around 1.9 : no greater than 2.4)

0.1pt BACK on JAUNTY SORIA

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

6th:   -0.3    (-2.388) LAY @ 2.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 97/140 = 69.28% :   BACKS: 22/89 = 24.71%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

No current entries

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

 I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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