BOZmail – 7th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

THURSDAY MARCH 7th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stands at 27.28 points after month 3

The Boz is back in blighty and a short formal thank you to all those who have been emailing and sharing their scores and betting records over the past few days.Your reward was Bredon Hill Lad! And if you beat my score, give yourself a big pat on the back. I was confident as you’ll have gathered from the stake up and I placed my bets in total not long after posting last night. Did well on the back. Not so great on the lay but was worried less by that given the confidence.

And we BOZmailers did affect the market sure enough. Woe betide you if you took SP after the past few days!!

Your feedback has helped crystalize a few things in my head and BOZmail rules and guidelines have been extended and revised as a result in the hope that future scores will benefit. It has been an extensive downspell since mid Jan but this is not seasonally unusual and the ‘Importance of Breaking Even’ philosophy remains paramount during such time. I have it very much in the forefront of my thinking on a daily basis and encourage its adherence at all times to ensure long term success.

Ireland wasn’t quite the visit I’d hoped although experiencing some proper winter after the non event we had in the UK was invigorating. And a nugget or two is stashed away in my brain ready for the beanfest that is Cheltenham – now a mere five days away. Keep a serious eye on the going!! Its possible radical change leading up to day one could create some very good betting opportunities.

A time generally for the pure enjoyment of our sport – a chance to pit the skills at their most competitive – and a caveat always to be wary of keeping one’s shirt on one’s back! More Cheltenham thoughts and advices will appear now on a daily basis until it finishes end of next week.

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

2-50 CARLISLE

A couple of races of interest at Carlisle on Thursday but nothing in Wednesday’s bracket so a protecting profit day. Long term BOZmailers will know about my record in Handicap chases at Fontwell and newcomers know it now. I cut my teeth as a horse race tipster at Fontwell and scored my through the card acca there in April 2013. Just a track I can smell well and Handicap Chases in particular.

I am interested in the 4-30 at Carlisle on those grounds and but for yesterday’s pop, might have chanced laying Molly Carew and backed Instingtive for a big sting but it is a chance bet and what just weaned me off it was the form of the Mulholland stable. I put a marker up to watch for them coming to the boil and boy have they. Yet another stable to keep an eye on at Chelters. We have a To Follow dark horse on that theme coming up too in Rainy Day Dylan.

So in the vein of profit protection, I swerved the risky bet and plumped for this more conservative novice hurdle. There is hardly a cigarette paper between the chances of the first two in the betting but the deciding factor for me comes in the speed figure of the Venetia charge albeit over a shorter 2m distance. Stamina in Chambard’s breeding however and I’m expecting to see more improvement over the further distance with LTO form also being boosted on Tuesday when Smarty Wild hacked up in the LIM race.

Thus a lay on Sherwood’s Dominateur who is low risk at even money or around that with Iwasthefutureonce as a bit of LIM cover – a horse with possible potential for improvement.

Venetia’s record when raiding North at Carlisle also influential in the decision for my play.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DOMINATEUR (around 2.0 and no greater than 2.4)

This month plays so far:

1st: + 0.19   (+0.19)

2nd: + 0.24  (+0.43)

3rd: + 0.2     (+0.63)

4th:  – 0.32   (+0.31) LAY @ 2.1

5th:  +0.19  (+0.5)  LAY @ 3.75

6th:  +1.30  (+1.80) LAY @ 2.99: BACK @ 6.4

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 59/82 = 71.95% :   BACKS: 13/53 = 24.52%

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 13.3875 points

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi

Benatar – Entered for the Ultima (Mar 12) & The Brown Advisory (Mar 14)

Captain Zebo

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for  Grand National (Apr 6)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

All Currencies

Knocknanuss* – Entered in the Arkle (Mar 12)

The Mighty Ash – Entered for Taunton (Mar 11)

Pistol Whipped

Cyrname

Rainy Day Dylan

Tombstone

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.685 points.

Staggered acca number 6: (LEG 1)

3-15 LINGFIELD – WISSAHICKON – at around 1/3  – 0.5pt WIN – WON

Will shout as soon as second leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.)

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of the breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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