BOZmail – 7th MARCH

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY MARCH 7th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 21.9126 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 9.7991 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 5.07 points

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LESS IS MORE: Saturday play

4-05 HEREFORD

Can’t pretend for one moment to understand the market at Wolverhampton ( lack of tv pictures meant our boy traded at 42.0 in running and the fav laid at 1.74) but well done if you were out there masking your interest in Dancing Rave. I was looking for 5.0 and backed him at 11s in the lead up to the off!!!! Funny place Wolverhampton and a rare bit of Black Country luck for the Black Country boy who came back from the family funeral there on Monday and has had flu symptoms ever since! This might have been my compensation!! Back on track anyway and Thursday’s reverse quickly repaired!

Well done if you backed the forecast too. That was a BOZmail rule 6 scenario and the Betfair divi on that was outstanding because of the drift on Dancing Rave. Just goes to show how staying patient with the form study pays. That result was in the book. The market seemed to totally ignore it! Anyone find out why, let me know!

Before I get on to Saturday’s interesting play, two news items: 1/ Doubt now that I will be attending paddock watch at Stratford on Monday 9th. See above for reasons (could be doing Cheltenham week in self isolation!!) but weather forecast is also dismal which is bad news for our Verdana Blue bet. More on that next week. 2/ Final call for those wanting to receive the shortlist system data over the next six months starting on Tuesday at Cheltenham. Let me know at garyboswell@hotmail.com if you haven’t previously received details.

Despite being back in favour on the all weather and four of the six back winners this cycle occurring there, I head back to the muddy NH scene on Saturday despairing the abandonment of Sandown (meaning no to follow runners going again) but still quite intrigued by this Hereford handicap chase. Been researching it all day and news of the result at Wolverhampton means I intend to play it quite differently to original plans as bank management position is now radically altered.

Basically, the race read throws up the favourite Saint De Vassy as worthy fav given the way LTO has worked out on heavy ground with the winner doubly franking the form since. That does mean Tom Symonds’ charge has not won on the ground however and that LTO time wasn’t great so Storm Control does come out with similar chance on the figures. SC holds Hollywoodien on previous meeting so Tom Symonds’ other runner also in the frame for laying and I’m now thinking double lay to lessen the liability and give us some profit protection on Friday’s stroke of luck. Basically all three top of the market could be laid as my two backs are the other two.

Tom George’s Baby King is old now but on best form would be my idea of the winner on paper so he’s value at 9/2.Times on the ground favour him. Tombstone however was a Cheltenham to follow horse for the BOZmail the year he ran in the Supreme and has a grade 3 hurdle win over Jezki to his name and although has become a bit disinterested in recent runs, turns out first time for a new stable and would absolutely munch these were he to discover old form. Best of that is over hurdles but he won a nice race at Limerick in October 2018 over fences and that form would be plenty good enough. Has won over distance and beat Jezki in this ground but the crucial positive for me is how Gordon Elliot’s charges often prove sparkling acquisitions for new stables in England. I cite De Plotting Shed as my recent example but there are plenty. No longer Cheltenham propositions so Gordon needs the stable room and they go to fresh quarters and often rediscover their old zest. Big price if I’m right two days in a row. So two outsider backs. I’ll keep Storm Control on my side as LIM cover amongst the front three and take Tom Symonds’ pair on against each other to lessen liability on the day.  

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on SAINT DE VASSY (around 2.5 or just above)

0.1pt LAY on HOLLYWOODIEN (around 4.5 and not much above that)

0.05pt BACK on BABY KING ( early best price around 5/1)

0.05pt BACK on TOMBSTONE (early best price 12/1)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 18/28 = 64.28%  Backs: 6/19 = 31.57%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for MARCH:

1st:    +0.196 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.2

2nd:   -0.04   (+0.156) Lay @ 1.4

3rd:    +0.047 (+0.203) Lay @ 2.4 : Back @ 7.4

4th:    +0.146 (+0.349) Lay @ 2.1 : Back @ 5.2

5th:    -0.435 (-0.086)  Lay @ 2.8 : Back @ 34.0

6th:    +0.735 (+0.649) Lay @ 3.0 : Back @ 12.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 13)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 10)

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 11 & 12 & 13)               

Welsh Saint* – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 12)

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for  Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco*Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ – Entered for the Champion Bumper (Mar 12)

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Quick Wave – Entered for Stratford(Mar9)

It’safreebee 

Sporting John – Entered for Supreme & Ballymore at Cheltenham

Captain Zebo

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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