THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN portfolio prior to semi finals
PLAYER current P/L
The Bozmail is back a day early thanks to the excellent result we witnessed for the tennis portfolio at the Garros yesterday. I thought you might appreciate my take on what might happen next, especially those I was talking to before I went away who are keen to practice their trading technique. I did say there was no better place to practice than in a tennis outrights portfolio especially when your 120/1 shot has made the semi finals and you have already gone green! Personally I only hedged a small 0.2pt on Halep at 13/1 when she stood at 4-1 down in the second set v The American and was being comprehensively outplayed. I don’t know about you and no doubt we all have our scores, but Anisimova looked every bit the potential next French Open champ to me. Her low groundstrokes whizzing past at 84mph were impressive but to me it was the sparse but expert use of the drop shot that stood out. Just four times in the match but all four with expert back spin and 100% success rate. And all at key moments.
That more than anything broke Halep’s resolve and although the champ broke back to 4-4 and Anisimova did have a few teenage wobbles that had me thinking maybe I had underdone my hedge, she continued to impress with her ability to quickly put the tight lobs that were going long out of her mind and get back almost instantly into the moment. Very mature psychologically and a fully deserved demolition job of the defending champ.
So we have a fascinating semi-finals now and a decision to make whether we tinker with our green portfolio or go for profit optimisation. That’s a decision for you to make. Some traders I know like to level at this point to equal profit whoever wins. If that is you, I’ll let you do your own maths. No too difficult to achieve. I make it around 2 points per player off the top of my head without having done the exact maths because as I’ve told a bunch of you already, I tend to prefer staying with a slant toward my outsider pick. Especially if she is showing me that she has every chance of going all the way. I’m already green on all four so I could do nothing but I won’t quite do that. And for you guys I have also run the rule over back form to see who comes out likely winner on that. As intimated before we began, it was a very open Open and so no surprise that we have ended with four left all of whom are not only Slam virgins, but French Open semi-final virgins also. Konta and Barty in particular are a serious surprise. There’s always the chance of that teenager blossoming at the Garros as I mentioned in my preview but the surface usually does dominate and both Konta and Barty have no back form on it at all. Prior to 2019 that is. Both had excellent run ups on clay so the current form pointers were there. Even so. I had my doubts either would carry that into a slam. The market now has them fighting out the final. The market always tends to expect the teenage wobble. Even with evidence that the protagonist can handle it as both Anisimova and Vondrousova have here. As teenagers go, Vondrousova is actually quite experienced and has been making waves on the circuit for a couple of year now. This is her breakthrough slam right enough and her price alongside Anisimova’s is undoubtedly the value. No surprise to me if the final features those two.
That said I shan’t be doing nothing to my portfolio because Konta-Vondrousova is very tight on back score – even at one apiece – with Konta edging the recent tussle in Rome. Konta is also the senior player left in this foursome and whilst she won’t be immune to a wobble as the biggie nears, that experience in years might give some cause for us to greet our first home winner since Sue Barker. She is already our first French Open semi-finalist for 36 years. But not second favourite for me. Straight 50-50 with the Czech and then held by Barty on back form so if anything, my slight outsider of the four to lift the Trophy. Patriotism will wrestle with my pundit’s self-belief if it is a Konta v Anisimova final. I may hedge then but again my slant will stay toward my outsider. And if I were to lay one from here, it would be Konta. But I won’t be. With the Konta semi so tough to call, I’ll leave that and consider in play if I get chance and a small hedge again on whoever gets to the final.
The other semi is bound in less clarity as indeed would a bet from nothing be here as Anisimova has no back form with any of these other three. She just looks the part. That 84mph flat forehand will be a tester for them all. She remains my favourite overall and my experienced head without much evidence tells me that Barty in particular will struggle with the power. She has traditionally a poor record against all power players and a tendency to be played through by them. Halep could do it to her. And on direct form she therefore struggles with Anisimova who trounced Halep. That said, Barty has been on a tremendous upcurve for two years now. Has a diverse game and a good mindset. Handled the Keys powerplay pretty effectively and has played the last three months on clay in imperious form losing only really to Halep and Kvitova. Twice to Kvitova who played through her with ease both times.
Barty is the favourite in the market at 2.8 as I write. That based on the fact that she holds both Konta and Vondrousova on back form and that Anisimova is a 17 year old inexperienced which the market always tends to underestimate. So no value at 2.8 but the likely winner if Anisimova does have a wobble. Therefore my only play at this point. And small. Just 0.3pt at 2.8 and only because I am a trader at heart. If you are a gambler and have your 120/1 voucher on the American still intact, well, you won’t be the first to do better with the shock win than I do.
It will be a shock to the tennis world. On what I thought beforehand and what I’ve seen since, no shock to me. But I’m still a trader and I’ll win whoever wins from here. Good Luck with what you decide to do. The final factor to consider perhaps is that the winner of Konta-Vondrousova, whichever it may be, will have the advantage of the rest day due to the rain wipeout of Wednesday’s play after their quarter final matches. Anisimova and Barty will have played three in three days. The other two just two in three days. That has been known to be a telling factor before especially with the older players. The biggest negatives thus perhaps then for Konta who gets no rest day between semi and final at her advanced 28 years of age! And Barty who will have played three in three aged 23 years. More grist to the value argument on the two teenagers!!
THE BOZ’s 2019 FRENCH OPEN portfolio prior to semi finals revised.
PLAYER current P/L
|Asheligh Barty0.3pt @ 2.8|
Sorry guys. I wrote the above Thursday night without noticing
the semi-finals were starting so early Friday. So I had to stay
at holiday venue to watch (and trade on) the semi-finals both
of which ended the way I didn’t want them to! Despite saying
above that Konta was my lay of the four I still wanted her to
win. I did have two small trades. I took Barty 0.1pt @ 19.0
after she lost first set to Anisimova. At that point, the American
looked home and hosed to me.
When Konta served for the first set at 5-3, I took Vondrousova
@10.0 to 0.1pt and likewise I took Konta @ 10.0 to 0.1pt when
She lost that first set.
So I stand in the final.
Barty +2.74 points &
Vondrousova +1 point
And that’s about how I rate their chances for the final. Barty very
much the fav now. Konta should have won hers. Nerves came to
blight her again as they have before in big games. Barty the
reverse. Nerves of steel here and holds the young Czech on
back form. Marketa could step up. Not out of the question but I
doubt I’ll trade on the final. Still a bit bruised by Anisimova’s defeat.
She went out as a five point winner which is always a sort of trader’s
defeat. You see why some level up when they go green.
Me, I take my plus and be content. Psychological must. Just take
me a day to get over the disappointment!!
Have sent this despite missing the deadline as I know some of you
are out there practising trading and interested in what I do. Hope
its been of help. There will be a much more comprehensive day to
day coverage of Wimbledon. Hope you had a blast with your effort.
A nearly one for me. Didn’t get my 120/1 tip in either sadly. Like I say,
will be over it by tomorrow!!