BOZmail – 7th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY JULY 7th  2019 

RIP JOHN McCRIRICK

Fearless. A fine journalist and fellow racing nut. He taught me a load of stuff about writing and how to handle a story. And the day he and Luke Harvey took on Barney Curley on camera is a day I’ll never forget (google it). Showman,agitator,activist,gobshite & bon viveur. He made horse racing entertaining in the good old days before the suits took over. If you like reading about our game, get yourself a copy of his’ World of Betting’. Much missed. Farewell to the Big Mac. May you end up where you’d want to be.

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stood at 40.8925 points after month 5

Stood at 43.0503 points after month 6

Stands at 48.248 points after month 7

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS POT TO PLAY WITH AT WIMBLEDON:

Current Total      = +9.3313 points

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Third round official Wimbledon tip for Saturday:

Barbora Strycova to beat Kiki Bertens @ 9/5 – 0.5pt BACK – WON

End of first week Wimbledon Review:

Barbora brought the first week to a successful end for the BOZmail bringing the official match bets into profit (the unofficial bets in greater profit as per Rule 6!),with two legs of a staggered acca also in place and the portfolio healthily placed with three big guns still standing in the last sixteen. Only negative is the usual need to get Serena beat. She did look like her old self v Goerges so work still to be done but all three of my big guns are there because I fancy them to dethrone her. Starting with Barty in the QF which doesn’t look good on back form but the fascination of that match up will be the 2019 Barty improvement. My main shout is for Kvitova in the portfolio with the 16/1 I took looking value although she has a hurdle to cross in Sloane Stephens in last sixteen. American is busy tussling with Konta as I write but looking good to come through and does dominate Kvitova on hard court. I’d fancy Kvitova on grass and current form and likewise against Konta who has just fought her way back in! The yoyoing of women’s tennis!

I’ve looked at Svitolina (70.0) and Riske (110.0) as outsider additions to the portfolio as they both have strong back form with Barty – Svitolina is 5-0 against her!! – but we come back again to that 2019 Barty improvement which is perceived and is reason she is already in my book. I stand by it for now. Serena will test it so until then I think I sit tight. There is of course a serious floater still in the draw called Gauff. If she beats Halep, we really do have our outsider but at this stage I’m not thinking that. Might still play the odds in that match though as a trade. More on that after our day off on Sunday. Mainly, my strategy will be to play second week as match bets either for the staggered acca or for the against the book singles approach. Another day thinking and I’ll report back on strategy for Monday!

My outrights portfolio for Wimbledon 

0.75pt LAY on SERENA WILLIAMS 

0.1pt BACK on ASH BARTY

0.1pt BACK on KAROLINA PLISKOVA

0.1pt BACK on PETRA KVITOVA

0.1pt BACK on JELENA OSTAPENKO – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on AMANDA ANISIMOVA – Eliminated

0.1pt BACK on SOFIA KENIN – Eliminated

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-35 AYR

This looks another good play on paper with Nibras Again looking very short and four against him who can all be made a case for.Prince Ahwahnee is the dark horse after the lay off, the gelding and the change of stable. Any improvement puts him at the fore as Nibras Again holds only a slight time plus and has penalty to carry to seriously negate that. My only doubt about Nibras would be jockey again. I do like Graham Lee who is top jock in the North for me. Favoured horse however is Harome. Has the class and is due a win in this lesser grade.Won at higher level York last year and back on that mark now. Also well jocked as Ben Curtis cuts the mustard. That’ll be my back.

Recommendations:

0.35pt LAY on NIBRAS AGAIN (around 2.2 ; no greater than 2.8)

0.15pt BACK on HAROME

8-30 CARLISLE on SATURDAY

Friday was an LIM error as I highlighted the positive jockey booking and that was the deciding factor albeit in a close finish. I didn’t manage my lay before the off but got it in running near the end when it looked like Little Windmill might hang on (bad jump at the last) and Marble Moon was coming. Goes down as a bad loser and a day I should just have passed on rather than force a selection. Hey ho. Lesson learned. Onward. To Carlisle on a Saturday night which I’m thinking of attending. Like the look of this one.

The back more so than the lay. The handicap experience of I am a Dreamer and his superior times make him a good value bet at 11/2. Ran down in this class LTO and looked a profile future winner to me.

The front two in the betting are difficult to split, both on their handicap debut. Boston George has some winning form and a slightly better time score but is assessed at the top of the handicap accordingly and thus has to give weight all round. 8lb to I am a Dreamer. The lay for me is based on value and jockey so will be kept low again. Enough Already is 13/8 thus represents less risk and has a jockey on board I consider less of a plus than D.Tudhope who rates in my top five currently riding. It was a big factor yesterday and could be again so here. Enough Already has changed stables. Not sure what to read into that as would not seem a significant reason to expect a win. Overall, I think I Am A Dreamer will beat them both. Double lay was considered!  

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on ENOUGH ALREADY (around 2.68 : no greater than 2.9)

0.2pt BACK on I AM A DREAMER

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This month plays so far:

1st:  +1.005 (+1.005) Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 8.6

2nd: -0.636 (+0.369)  Lay @ 2.62 : Back @ 4.5

3rd:  +0.145(+0.514)  Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

4th:   +0.145(+0.659) Lay @ 2.96 : Back @11.0

5th:    -0.4 (+0.259) Lay @ 3.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 120/180 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 32/119 = 26.89%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Get out the Gate 

Commodore Barry

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for Goodwood Cup (July 30)

Sir Dragonet – Entered for the QIPCO (September 14)&Irish St Leger (Sep 15) 

Raise You

Charl Brune

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick

Light Up Our Stars 

To Follow Horse to trade in running on Saturday:

5-20 SANDOWN – Light Up Our Stars @ 9/1

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.4431 points.

Staggered acca number 13: (LEG 3)

Will shout soon as next leg emerges. 

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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