BOZmail 7th JULY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY JULY 7th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 20.0767 points (+0.0767 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 13.219 points (+5.219 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.485 points (-0.515 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +4.3117 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +8.5993 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 15/22 = 68.18%  Backs : 2/9 = 22.22%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE: 

2-40 NEWTON ABBOT

The LIM I would have played on Monday at Ayr was won by the fav so I saved us some moolah by staying out. Have watched all the UK jumping religiously so far and did well trading at Uttoxeter yesterday. There is still lockdown fever around and plenty of horses running rusty. The trainers who have come out running is a fair guide though and certainly the value is there if the prices are long as you’ll see from my report on yesterday.

The shortlist plays Newton Abbot tomorrow after a solid effort at Bath with four winners last week and I’ve looked hard at the trainers in all races and plumped for this 2-40 as a water testing LIM play.I had been contemplating the Skelton horse Lemon Shoulder as the lay but he had a winner and a strong second at Uttoxeter Monday so he’s off my cold list. It might anyway have been a double lay if Prophet’s Prayer comes up at around the 11/8 the William Hill tissue predicted. Emma Lavelle

not firing and this one a long time off. Several can be fancied alongside Lemon Shoulder namely Cast in Grey,Kendelu and Strictly Art. 

Just a small water testing lay to minimum stake but only if it’s no greater than 2.5.

Bet 365 have come in at 11/4 and I’m not laying at that.

Anything above 2.5 and it’s a remain suspended day.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on PROPHETS PRAYER (at no greater than 2.5)

 LIM Scores in July:

1st:  +0.1054   (+0.1054) Lays @ 2.22 & 2.4 : Backs @ 3.1 & 2.56

2nd: -0.126      (-0.0206) Lay @ 1.48 : Backs @ 16.0 & 40.0

3rd:  +0.0232   (+0.0026) Lay @ 1.7 : Back @ 1.96

4th:   +0.1313  (+0.1339) Lay @ 2.76 : Back @ 4.0

5th:   -0.1         (+0.0339) Back @ 3.0

6th:   NO BET

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York (Aug 20)

Significantly – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

Malotru

English King 

Ransom

Virgin Snow 

Collinsbay – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for Newbury(July 19)&York(Aug 20)&Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way

Battleground – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 10)

Sharp Reply

Waseem Faris

Little Chance

Samwell (FR)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Aleatoric

Check My Pulse

Ginstrelli

Balagan

TO FOLLOW HORSE TO TRADE ON MONDAY:

5-45 WINDSOR – COLLINSBAY @ around 4/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 4.0 : Laid before the off 0.35pt @ 2.8 : P/L = + 0.098pts

**********************************************************************************

THE BOZ’s LIST OF NH TRAINERS COMING BACK FROM LOCKDOWN IN RUDE HEALTH 

Ben Pauling

Tom Lacey

Nicky Martin

Harry Whittington

Paul Nicholls

Michael Scudamore

Jamie Snowden

Fergal O’Brien

Oliver Sherwood

Nigel Hawke

Stuart Edmunds

Martin Smith

Neil King

Olly Murphy

THE BOZ’s LIST OF BACK TO LAYS AT UTTOXETER ON MONDAY:

12-55 Dusty’s Choice – FELL

            Ginistrelli – 1st

(I started my Summer Jumps to follow list in this with Martin Smith’s Aleatoric who was espied dumping before the off. Traded at 1000-1 before the off and in running having led most of the way round. Finished 3rd at an ISP of 150-1. BSP was 450.0.The place paid 30.1!

Winner on the all weather that looks to have found its place in summer jumping. 

On the list!) 

1-25   Bringthehousedown – NON RUNNER

            Grey Spirit – UNPLACED

(Grey Spirit was a paddock watch lay at odds on. Burly and carrying condition so just goes to show. Trainer in form can still send ‘em out in need of the run!

Lockdown factor once more.Easily traded profit.

The dumper in this race was Rebecca Menzies’ Check My Pulse who was also on the trainers longlist and ran third at an ISP of 66-1. BSP was 120.0. Place was 9.28. A bit of a theme emerging!) 

1-55   Highland Bobby – FELL

            Redemptorist -UNPLACED

( No dumper in this race and Murphy’s horses flopped again. One left at start then fell. Other burly as a barrel organ. Paddock watch still critical and I was on

for a trading loss in this with two longllsters in to save my bacon but one of them fell highlighting one of the flaws of trading jumps racing. You can’t hedge once they hit the deck! The other however was Jonjo’s Perfect City who won at 5/1. Phew!) 

2-30 (Didn’t put any up in this but found four in the morning to trade from the trainer’s longlist. All successful trades but Neil King’s Balagan the star which was on the exchanges at over 100 but did get pummelled in to 48.0 and won at an ISP of 40/1. BSP was 44.65. I showed a 20/1 win and place winner despite hedging a couple of times in running. Bryony riding her masterclass front running style. This is obviously the way I should have been playing the flat after the lockdown!)

3-00   Sirobbie – UNPLACED

(Sirobbie was an easy trade leading most of the way round before fading. My main longlister Serosevsky made small money on the place market trade and just faded at the very end to finish 4th. First race of the day to be miniscule in the returns stakes and also some unwelcome news with Skelton saddling the winner – after holding up the race whilst he reshod – which scuppers my plan for a jumps LIM at Newton Abbot on Tuesday. How dare the Alcester boy return to form! At least it was in a race I wasn’t opposing him in! Murphy on my side at last perhaps?)

3-30   Hepijeu – UNPLACED

(My small losing race of the day but could have been a lot worse as I opposed Skelton again and got out of gaol on the line! He has to come off the cold list with two in a row running well. Would have won this but for belting the second last.)

4-00   Building Bridges – 4th

( A break even race after Building Bridges clouted the second last when in the lead. Got the money back trading four in the race from the trainers longlist on win and place markets)

4-30   Calin Du Brizais – Unplaced

(Break even trade again. Good start to the meeting. Kept hold of the Balagan winnings but the system had a moderate second half after blasting away early)

**********************************************************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *