BOZmail – 7th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

MONDAY JANUARY 7th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

1-25 MUSSELBURGH

Boy that’s a long run in at Newcastle and I did think the winning lay run was going to end but 14 and counting and 4/4 on the all weather so we are definitely still in the glass half full corner at the moment. Lucky? Nah, no such thing as luck in racing really and more likely the quirky systems are coming good. Second run after a wind op is definitely one of those and I’ve been commissioned to write an article for Betting Insiders in February outlining some of my others to follow in a piece on paddock watching (never fear, Niven’s dump will be the star feature!) so I’ll post that on here aswell when it’s done FYI. I used to get laughed at when I told people I backed so and so horse because he’d told me he was going to win but I notice they don’t laugh so much these days!

Had an all weather race at Wolverhampton lined up for Monday as Simon Crisford’s Given Choice looks a vulnerable fav but taking a second look at this novice hurdle I spotted that Indian Opera was on the Zakharova bumper formline (Zakharova withdrawn from Monday’s entries) which seemed an omen too good to miss. Nefyn Point is odds on 4/6 on the tissue and I always like taking them on if I can make a case. He does look an awkward sort with a tendency to hang and hasn’t really got an odds on shot’s form coming from the McCain stable who are also a bit short of winners at the moment. Didn’t look to enjoy the step up in trip LTO which is not reflected in breeding but a negative all the same. Might just not be that keen on racing. Will get the good jockey ride but 4/6?

The initial reason to put me off this race was that the two dangers have little and no experience of jumping but now I see that Indian Opera ran second in the Zakharova race that so impressed me last February and then ran two more creditable bumpers, there is a suggestion she might be competitive here getting the 7lb mares allowance against a mardy arse like Nefyn Point. If she jumps. There is also a form pointer to check before we play as Sea Story – who beat her NTO at Catterick – runs over hurdles in the 1-05 at Chepstow on Monday so we’ll get a collateral form pointer just before we run. As it stands, Indian Opera’s bumper form behind Zakharova and Dr Sanderson stacks up well so that if Sea Story also does well at Chepstow we can, I think, be very optimistic.

The other danger Look Now is also fair cover as despite not knowing how he’s going to jump we do have the fact that James Ewart’s small stable are crackling at the moment with 2 wins from last six and a second that was For Three who was seriously mugged at Newcastle on Saturday priced at 66/1. Think you can deduce that his horses are running splendid!

 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on NEFYN POINT

0.1pt BACK on INDIAN OPERA

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 28.5/34 = 83.82% :   BACKS: 4/20 = 20%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  – Entered at AYR (Jan 8)

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Nothing doing here at the moment whilst I ponder the next step.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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