JANUARY 2021 – 31 day extension to
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THURSDAY JANUARY 7th 2021
EXTENSION DAY 7:
12-58 FFOS LAS
Right old price drift on Gulliver so more grist to my theory that all is not well and settled still on the flat and you take each day and form with a pinch of salt right now so I head back to NH despite the fact that Musselburgh is already abandoned and Ffos Las has to pass an inspection.
If it gets the green light, you can guarantee it will be quagmire conditions but this is one of my system tracks for in play trading when conditions are so. Finishers will be strung out like washing as only one or two will handle the ground and you can usually pick those out with a combination of pre race checking whether each horse handles heavy going and looking for knee actions in the first half mile or so. Higher the knee action the better.
Both the front two in the betting look dubious sorts on the ground on pre race look.
Sandymount Rose is consistent but the string of seconds suggests she likes getting beat and two heavy going efforts both displayed lack of any ability to accelerate in the ground. Running well on it without actually looking like enjoying it or benefitting from it and has no knee action to my eye. Drops back in trip here but looks an oppose if you can find one to fancy. That ought to be Windswept Girl who led for two miles LTO at Lingfield before falling in a hole and patently failing to handle the ground last three furlongs. Form of that race hasn’t held up too well and although shorter might suit and she has better times than Sandymount on the ground, I have considered the double lay and an outsider is definitely worth looking at especially if looking good in running. Crackle Lyn Rosie has the stable credential and Evan certainly knows how to win with bog trotters here but nothing on past form and paper to recommend other than breeding perhaps. Keep an eye in running though if it seems to be travelling effortlessly through the ground with that high knee.
Pre race study prefers Saddlers Quest and Sanderoc with the latter having the credentials if the wind op and tongue tie sort out the problems on show in LTO bumper effort here. Travelled well for much of that race but went out like a light looking seriously like breathing was a real effort. Has to take to jumping hurdles as well of course so comes with caveats. Had won a PTP on heavy before so potential is there. Jockey booking interesting and again if jumping & travelling well three furlongs out with that high knee a-working, get on if you are not on already!
0.1pt LAY on Sandymount Rose (around 2.4)
0.05pt BACK on SANDEROC (around 8.0)
6-45 KEMPTON (Not run yet)
Not an obvious LIM race despite the runner qualification and Kempton not a track I often play at (unless I’m trading). Just not a track I find winners easily at and the shortlist is unreliable here too which I’m using as part of my rationale for the play here. The shortlist is keen on tissue fav Gulliver who is top rated and has course and distance form but a few negatives as well and although not mega confident, The Boz is gonna take him on. Held by main danger Aberama Gold on LTO form in a Listed race at Doncaster and whilst the switch to all weather throws a cloud over that, there is also an absence of previous run here for the Dalgleish horse to do collateral from. Even so, the negative for Gulliver is backed by another in O’Meara stable form which is barren at the moment. Dalgleish not a whole load better and you could argue for double lay the top two as the two outsiders Brian the Snail and Streamline can have cases made. The latter is the value with his Group race course and distance win LTO and that makes him third best in my book so 17/2 outsider of six is tempting. A year and a half off the track stays the hand although trainer Clive Cox is perhaps not one you would worry about so much with a lay off like that. His ability to bring sprinters back is well known.
Brian the Snail also has good course and distance form and is fourth in my book but is held by Aberama Gold who gave weight and a beating last time they met albeit not here again and some might say Brian could turn that round on this track.
So a devilish conundrum for me race read wise and when that occurs you know the mantra is take the value. With bank management also in mind I go minimum lay on the tissue fav Gulliver.
0.1pt LAY on GULLIVER (around 3.3)
BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +59.2006points
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Currently stands at : 33.6115 points (+13.6115 points)
LESS IS MORE
LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 130/186 = 69.89% Backs : 37/118 = 31.35%
LIM Monthly Scores:
February: + 1.3496 points
March : + 1.5866 points
UK RACING LOCKDOWN
April : – 0.1733 points
May : – 0.8359 points
UK RACING RESTARTED
June : + 0.0428 points
July : + 0.8046 points
August : +1.9726 points (+4.747 points)
September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)
October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)
November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)
December : +0.8487 points (+13.2195 points)
January LIM Score:
1st: +0.098 (+0.098) Lay @ 2.75
2nd: +0.049 (+0.147) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 7.0
3rd: +0.098 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.3
4th: +0.147 (+0.392) Lay @ 2.6
5th: NO BET