BOZmail – 7th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY FEBRUARY 7th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.636 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.0784 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Friday play

1-40 BANGOR

Another overbet fav successfully opposed. They seriously smashed into him after the stable landed that touch at Wolverhampton last night (well done those monkeys that back every big price horse I mention!!) and I sadly picked the wrong outsider to win when I posted last night. It was close as well. Just plumped for the wrong one. Hey ho. Still trolling along ok thanks to the laying abilities.

This is another classic LIM 3 runner race – ostensibly a match race but we play lay only in this so that if the front two fall (novice chase so always possible) we collect our winnings from the rag! Very different to yesterday’s intriguing market play, this is a simple pays your money takes your chance on two horses closely matched on previous collateral form. If You Say Run has several positives from that race into this.

An 11lb turnaround for a four length defeat which is promising. Better ground which will help and doesn’t look ideal for Annie Mc on form so far. Small up in distance also more likely to suit Nicholls charge on breeding and whilst Jonjo’s looks the more natural chasing type, Nicholls’ has the time figures and the speed and with Bryony likely to dictate and control the pace from the front, that weight differential could easily come strongly into play late on.

The key plus is the return for If You Say Run to a left handed track as many lengths were wasted jumping left at Wincanton and those saved here combined with the weight should make things tell if both horses jump well as expected from stables both in excellent fettle now in the run up to Cheltenham.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on ANNIE MC (around 2.0 : upper value parameter 2.3)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 4/4 = 100%  Backs: 0/1 = 0%

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

6th: +0.097 (+0.636) Lay @ 2.5 : Back @ 15.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* 

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Uttoxeter (Feb 8)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on THURSDAY:

3-05 HUNTINGDON – TEA CLIPPER @ 3/1 – 0.15pt BACK – 2nd

(Backed at 3.8 : Hedged just before the off 0.18pt @ 2.92) = P/L +0.0294

Pretty straight forward trade again so hope those keen to learn found this one easier.

Posted at 3/1 I actually missed that and got my best price @ 3.8 last night which left me with a plus +0.42 or -0.15 position. Did some more form study Thursday morning and watched the market shorten Tea Clipper suggesting stable expected a good run.

I also expected a good run but wasn’t convinced he was a gamble given the negatives of up in class and distance and without champ on board so stayed in trade frame of mind and took my simple profit just before the off @ 2.92 (actually missed the 2.8 I first posted for) leaving me with a +0.0744 if he won position and +0.0294 (after commission) if he lost which he duly did running an excellent race again for which he stays on the to follow list. Be interesting where they take him next.

And that’s trading at its most basic for you. Didn’t bother with increments and markers on this one as wasn’t expecting the mass price movement and/or the speculative nature of the run we had with Ambion Hill. All trades are different and there are a million ways to play. I could have played in running again here as Tea Clipper lived up to his name and clipped a few fences so his win price extended but never much above 4.0 and best hedge price I saw was 2.74 so in the context of that, I got good stress free value play for very little effort. Of course the winnings aren’t massive but this is accumulative cashbuilder time again and get some bookies money in the satchel before we start playing more adventurously. We have a whole year at it with tennis plays (my favourite trading medium) yet to come. We boost our pot with it I promise you if we stay sensible and solid. Drop me a mail to let me know how you got on with this one if you are still new to it and trialling and/or have any more questions or queries. Calmed down a bit on the wire now so got more time for chat. And another trade for Friday…….  

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on FRIDAY:

1-50 KEMPTON – SAINT DE REVE @ 5/1 – 0.15pt BACK

Pretty competitive race with Tizzard,Henderson and King charges all likely to be competitive. Nicholls horse from the Cat Tiger formline expected to run his race again though with stable flying and strong each way chance as a fixed odds bet and a clear chance of trading profit if you back at best price you can achieve and hedge when offered preferential odds.

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ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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