BOZmail – 7th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

FRIDAY DECEMBER 7th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: FRIDAY PLAY

2-15 SEDGEFIELD

I hope you got your sliding scales in top gear for the lay on Pookie Pekan!! I got my stab at the tissue completely wrong and he went as low as 1.8 before the off following the defection of Blakerigg but even with The Boz’s fancy a non-runner and the dark horse running out of puff, he still couldn’t win and found one of the rags to beat him which is a rounding score for The Boz and a cock snooked at the market. Sometimes simply doesn’t know what it’s on about. 3lb well in at the weights. You heard ‘em say it! And yet beaten by one of the rags at 4/6. And why? Because he was carrying a dirty great chunk of lead on rain sodden ground and at a track much quicker than he likes. That’s why. They seriously piled in. The turnover on the backs was phenomenal and I hope you were in there shovelling it in your satchel!

Of course I didn’t pick the winner (I do have my excuse this time, he was a non-runner!!) but you have seen in this first week what The Boz is all about. Good at working out a lay of the day. Not so good at finding winners although I managed the 25% SR that I’m at here over the last three years so passable as a picker. And in races where the focus is primarily on getting a shorty beaten. That’s LIM.

A slow and steady week comes to a close on Friday at Sedgefield and I’ll come to that in a minute but first an early warning of a busy Saturday ahead. The Becher chase tilt looks on after Jimmy Moffatt had his sighter at Haydock but as you might expect with him, it wasn’t the horse you’d have predicted. Instead 66/1 rag Minella Charmer led over the last but just failed to hang on and finished a gallant third and it was exactly the sort of thing I was looking for. It’s the way the stable works and you can take it from me now that they’ll be deadly serious about their entries in the Becher. You might want to take early each way odds now and I’ll be doing a comprehensive write up tomorrow. I do have a couple of other weapons grade runners lined up for Saturday along with the second leg of the staggered acca footy bet so the tortoise will be making his move and you might need your betting boots on! Likely to be a daily acca alongside the staggered acca.

Several of you watching now who weren’t watching last Saturday asking whether it is too late to come in on this staggered acca. Answer is no not really. Only a small carry forward stake this week so you can easily replicate that as your first leg stake from your bank but remember that you will be depositing stake back into bank if we win this week whereas those who played last week will be carrying forward all returns from this week as their stake for next week.

Of course there is also a huge personal decision making aspect to the staggered acca process as you’ll see as we go on. Not all followers go the whole hog and do various personal cash outs and hedges rather than plonk big money down. It will define the type of gambler you are which way you go. And all ways are fine so long as you end up in profit!

 

So back to Sedgefield on Friday and a five runner Handicap Chase featuring one of my favourite mares from a couple of years ago – Socksy – carrying top weight. Ooh she’s a moody madam but she’s got massive feet and loves this weather so she’s my idea of a back in this race. I picked her up out of the Colin’s Sister race at Warwick in 2016 which has been a productive formline race and on breeding she has all the hallmarks of a staying chaser and not a little bit of class if she decides to show it. Doesn’t always concentrate and has all the aids on here to help with that and the stable apprentice up for the first time too. He’ll need to be firm with her!

But she can do it and won her bumper at Thurles and her two novice hurdles at Towcester and two wetter tracks there are not on the planet. This weather will suit her down to the ground.Won her debut Novice Handicap Chase well at Ayr before being tried higher thereafter and ran a couple of creditable races. Back down in her winning grade now and on a feasible mark having had a blow out at Chepstow over hurdles and the main plus is that extra couple of furlongs which will play right into her breeding. Out of Flemensfirth and they stay all day.

Of the rest of the field, Braavos and Travertine look pass overable with the England stable out of form and the horse preferring good ground. Jonjo and JP combos always have to be taken seriously but this one also looks in a quiet zone and Late Date doesn’t look much leaving Lac Sacre as the main danger. Been running over further last two and not doing too badly but breeding doesn’t shout stayer at you like Socksy’s does and stable are on cold list so although well rated for the race I can’t be over enthused by him and am firmly in the Socksy camp.

.

 

Recommendation:

0.4pt LAY on BRAAVOS

0.25pt BACK ON SOCKSY

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 5/6 = 83.33%

                                                          BACKS: 1/4 = 25%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. So 0.45pts returned to bank which is retained at 10 points thanks to superb never say die from Redditch again for second time in a week!)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn @ 9/5 or better – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw @ 29/10 or better – 0.2 pts – WON

 

We will start the second leg – free bet – stage of the staggered acca with a stake of 0.33pts (Saturday’s winnings). Watch this space for the advice as it emerges. May be next Saturday’s Redditch match at St Neots but could also be something else that emerges sooner or something later if the St Neots fixture is deemed not weapons grade after careful study during the week.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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