BOZmail 7th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

MONDAY DECEMBER 7th  2020

 LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 118/167 = 70.65%  Backs : 33/103 = 32.03%

1-15 MUSSELBURGH

Well that was as near to being wrong as you can get! But ultimately right. Always a risk going against a to follow horse. But a win win really as Wild Polly ran a cracker and nearly carried her penalty. That’s great for our Lady Bowes bet being set up for Wednesday. Might have a right punt on that now! I’m guessing all you latent and converted traders also had some fun with that. A real PROFIT AT THE DEATH trading race as I’m calling my new TRADE PAPER system. Well done if you are ahead of the game and traded at the 1.1 and 1.01s. The long run in at Kelso facilitated that. Just been writing how long run in tracks are best for your PROFIT AT THE DEATH plays.

Doesn’t get any longer than Kelso!

On to Monday and an LIM monthly deficit still to erase so I’m on that! Armattiekan has three negatives to contend with in this albeit that he has been in good form.

1/ Penalty to carry for LTO win 2/ No proven form on Soft ground 3/ Not proven at extra distance and breeding suggests that might present a problem. At 6/4, he has to be the lay. In the what there is to beat him stakes, Galileo Silver is equally in form and gets a 5lb weight claim allowance from the excellent Jordan Nailor. Chase debut a concern but jockeys matter at the minute and alongside Sean Bowen, I’m noticing some tremendous rides from Harry Bannister at the moment (Sunday’s winner plus For Pleasure and a brilliant ride at Aintree Saturday on Talking About You). The other hot to trot jockey is Sean Quinlan with 19 winners in the past fortnight. He rides Not The Chablis here for Nick Alexander who has also started firing in winners and the form of his third behind Armattiekan here is probably the key to this race. 25l behind on good ground would on the face of it suggest little chance of reversal but a 20lb weight turnaround and also 19lb for Brotherly Company who ran second that day. Must have a chance to turn round 18 lengths with that although Sandy Thomson’s horse is also short in the betting and like the fav, has no suggestion ground or distance will suit. Not The Chablis has both of them on his side and although 25 lengths is a biggie, he is value at 11/1 with the soft ground and his stamina pedigree added to the 20lb making it a feasible reversal to me. Jockey booking clinches it. Hughes on the fav is equally good of course but he’s on a 6/4 shot. You know the score by now!

Early prices might be wise as LIM picks have been attracting the market just lately.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on ARMATTIEKAN (around 2.5)

0.05pt BACK on NOT THE CHABLIS (around 12.0)

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Parramount

Tamar Bridge

Wild Polly 

Straw Fan Jack 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Young Wolf 

Lady Bowes(soft) – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre 

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose 

Charm Offensive – Entered for Hexham (Dec 9)

Return Ticket(flat track) 

Prettylittlething 

Boothill 

Al Dancer – Entered for Cheltenham(Dec 12)&KingGeorge(Dec 26)

For Pleasure 

Shan Blue – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Shang Tang

Snow Leopardess 

Marble Sands

Dusart 

Bobby Bow (heavy) 

Ga Law – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16,17 & 18)

First Flow – Entered for Cheltenham (Dec 12)

Get Your Own

Thyme Hill – Entered for Ascot (Dec 19) & Cheltenham (Mar 17 & 18)

Floressa – Entered for Cheltenham (Mar 16)

Cheddleton

********************

*******************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

November : +4.468 points (+12.3708 points)

****************************************************

LIM Scores for December:

1st:   +0.098   (+0.098) Lay @ 3.2

2nd:  +0.098 (+0.196) Lay @ 2.04 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   NO BET

4th:    -0.16    (+0.036) Lay @ 1.8

5th:    -0.308  (-0.272) Lay @ 2.98 : Back @ 8.0

6th:    +0.147 (-0.125) Lay @ 2.66

*****************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +52.1287points

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 32.2458 points (+12.2458 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 49.8234 points (+41.8234 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.2085 points (-0.7915 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

*************************************************

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *