BOZmail – 7th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY DECEMBER 7th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)

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STAGGERED ACCA FINAL 2019 P/L SCORE:

= -0.6points

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +14.9977 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +66.8575 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

1-40 WETHERBY

Fair to say that was one for the market on Thursday as the late money came for Agamemmon and he proved better on the ground than Justforjames who came with

a smooth effort but didn’t quite quicken on ground not heavy enough! Might also have come down to jockeyship. Hughes rode solid. We had to take outside the box on Boric to benefit from the double lay which did minimise damage if you took it. The market drift on Boric told of his chance so it was the right move if a bit risky. On we plod trying to get December under way!

Ain’t My Fault has a touch of seconditis (and being weight penalised for it) and I don’t see why he should turn the form with Ubaltique who will love as much rain as you can muster. Pretty competitive race and might be worth laying early on the Russell horse as a drift from 11/4 might well occur. You can make a case for all runners so we like that for LIM purpose and there is value on the outsider Nuts Well who hasn’t won in a while but been running in better races and on a winning mark now. Showed for a while in the class drop last time and might be primed to benefit now.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on AIN’T MY FAULT (around 3.8 : no greater than 4.2)

0.1pt BACK on NUTS WELL (11.0 or better)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 206/311 = 66.23% :   BACKS: 55/208 = 26.44%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0

4th:   NON RUNNER

5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0

6th:   -0.081 (+0.044) Lays @ 2.2 & 5.6 : Back @ 6.0

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

La Bague au Roi – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 8) + the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper – Entered for Huntingdon ( Dec 8)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Wenceslaus 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Floressa 

Vinndication –Entered for Ascot (Dec 21) + King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger 

Welsh Saint – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Normandy Soldier – Entered for Warwick (Dec 12)

Ribble Valley 

Kid Commando 

Jatiluwih

Soaring Glory

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on FRIDAY:

2-25 SANDOWN – UP THE STRAIGHT @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed @ 12.0 : Hedged @ 4.2 = P/L – 0)

Not a difficult trade as he was staying on a bit two out so that if the pace collapsed, he might gallop though and 4.2 and lower was offered. The hill however saw him off and he ran out of puff to finish a disappointing last. Obviously not quite up to this class yet!

Can be missed off the list and watched a bit for now.

HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SATURDAY:

1-50 SANDOWN – NUBE NEGRA @ 11/4 – 0.25pt BACK

Leave it to you whether you trade or back this one as a live winning chance is assured here. Good race and we have two outsiders to keep an eye on in Return Ticket and Beakstown but Nube Negra has looked mighty impressive so far and tests itself here.Only downside is that form hasn’t held up that well from two outings so far.

I shall back at best price I can get and then paddock watch and see how we are running before deciding whether I might hedge. Stable are running this one and keeping Maire Banrigh – perhaps the more exciting of the two – for Warwick on Thursday.

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PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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