BOZmail 7th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

FRIDAY AUGUST 7th  2020 

*************************************************

 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.4226 points (+1.4226 points)

*************************************************

TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6153 points (+6.6153 points)

*************************************************

OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

*************************************************

SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

******************************************

Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

*************************************************

Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

*************************************************

BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.0439 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.3315 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 37/47 = 78.72%  Backs : 5/20 = 25%

************************************************************************

LESS IS MORE:

….Significant rain not overly good news for either of the backs which should be born in mind. Proceed if the ground stays on the good side. Profit protection day if it is bucketing down with rain and the ground has gone good to soft. Might be worth going to trading the picks if that happens……

Tell me if you want it writing any more clearly than that. Had a complaint today with abusive language included accusing me of posting Peterborough as a winner when I’d tipped him as a loser. Excuse me for telling the truth! If you’d rather I lie, let me know.

The LIM record posted on here is just what I did. It is not your record in any shape or form. If you didn’t trade Peterborough on the strength of what I wrote that was YOUR call. Anyone who doesn’t get that yet better wise up. The Bozmail is not for everyone I’d be first to admit. It has been leaning toward encouraging trading bets for a while but this year that has become part of the survival mode. I make no excuses. My way of keeping us in front. I get that not everyone likes it but the abuse I can do without. And if you have got something worthwhile and serious to say, at least have the courage to say it to my face. Been tough enough this year without crass ignorance to deal with on top. 

Apologies to all those good members I have who had to hear that but I have had my share of ‘con artist’ customers this year to have to deal with. Not been pleasant.

3-10 CARTMEL

Not the easiest race to be bullish about again on Friday and my initial tissue suggested Rising Marienbard would be second fav around 9/4 but that is proving optimistic and we are looking at likely 4.33 or greater but I still have him as my lay of the day despite not particularly fancying either of the two in front of him betting wise.

Stop The World (an appropriate name for the moment!) is on the Soldier of Love formline although well beaten by him so might be a fragile fav but not one to risk for me as second time after the wind op could bring about the required improvement for him whereas just first run after op for the Russell horse means it might take time to show there.

My back in the race is speculative and the Hamner stable nor firing yet but Dee Star has won here before (albeit a Hunters Chase) and isn’t the quickest but soft ground almost assured and we know what soft ground at Cartmel means. Horses for courses. I’ll take a punt on him. Modest stakes day again though in view of the overall picture.

Recommendation:

0.1pt LAY on RISING MARIENBARD (around 4.33)

0.05pt BACK on DEE STAR (around 7.5)

LOCAL TRACK FACTOR PLAY at Cartmel on FRIDAY:

1-25 APTLY PUT @ 11/2

2-00 LOUGH KENT @ 16/1

3-45 THE STEWARD @ 8/1

4-20 THINK AHEAD @ 14/1

The usual Moffat caveats apply here and the usual good price value whatever the result especially if you play on the exchange or at BSP. I’m playing level stakes with the usual uncertainty which of the four to fancy most.  Lough Kent has always struggled as a chaser but did win a race at Warwick for Henderson at a mark much higher than this – albeit in 2015. Not beyond the bounds that Jimmy gets him back to that. Sort of thing he does so 16/1 and probably bigger is the value of the day. The Steward ran an encouraging seasonal debut and would be my each way tip of the day. Perennial placer except when he won the Cartmel Cup at a canter. Only Jimmy knows when he’s gonna win. Again, not ruled out. Aptly Put is the shortlists’s idea of his best for the day. Which leaves Think Ahead as more value in a competitive finale.

They are best treated as bets of faith IMHO. Do as you will with them. Here is my staking plan.

4 x 0.05pt WIN SINGLES

6 x 0.01pt EACH WAY DOUBLES

1 x 0.01pt EACH WAY ACCA   Total spend = 0.34pts

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

6th:    NON RUNNER

******************************************************************

BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 8)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 8)

Beholden 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Southwell (Aug 10)

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on THURSDAY: not run yet.Will settle tomorrow.

8-20 STRATFORD – BEHOLDEN

0.15pt WIN SINGLE

Not worth trading at the price and a reasonably confident pick as bumper bets go. Surprisingly beaten LTO but jumped the path on the run in and the conqueror could be a good one and is also now on our list… and prevented the double penalty! This looks an easier heat but no massive stake as bumper’s often contain dark horses.

 **********************************************************************************

LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *