BOZmail – 7th APRIL

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SUNDAY APRIL 7th 2019

…..Grand National not a punting race for me but I’ll be cheering for local hero Just A Par who will lift the roof off if he wins. Bagged Aiden Coleman to ride which is a bonus. He went to Sedge on Friday to ride one out of the limelight. That kind of jockey. Will get on well with Jimmy. Don’t ever remember him being booked by the stable before. Valtor still my dark horse and several others I’ll be happy to see win – Rathvinden (3rd) and Magic of Light (2nd) both have a squeak. Who do I think will win? Well, I won’t be laying Tiger Roll! (1st)……

Tricast paid : £2,260-93

Long time followers of The Bozmail know that I have made a tip in the Grand National a feature for the past 11 years without giving the winner. Not that it was hard this year! But when The Boz says something like ‘not a punting race for me’ or fails to give his usual tip but instead gives you five of his fancies (two very much heart on sleeve outsiders) you do have to have a small interest just in case Murphy’s Law strikes.

The Boz does suffer from Murphy’s Law. (Don’t we all??)

If he decides for the first time in his life not to tip in the Grand National you have to be poised to back his fancies. Murphys Law is called in from its sedentary seat in the clouds to laugh in case he doesn’t bet those he has said might win or do well!

And he didn’t. Murphys Furies are laughing their socks off!

I know however that quite a few of you old faithfuls permed the tricast. Good on you! I shall expect a pint at least when we meet up at Cartmel in a month or two.

I shall have stopped weeping by then!!!!!

The Grand National has never been a happy race for me. Even when I picked the 1-2-3!! And didn’t Magic of Light run a marvellous race.

Back to what I do best. At least the LIM won and the Bozmail rule number one was upheld. I must write another rule in. When the Boz says he isn’t betting in a race he expresses his opinion on. Take it as a cue that it’s the bet of the year!!

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

5-00 PLUMPTON

I found three favs to lay at Plumpton on Sunday – all in LIM races – so it’s been a hard narrowing down day. So much so that I considered Mellow Ben and Cadeau Du Bresil to start my long awaited lay staggered acca.( I'm doing a footy bet instead. See below.)The former has to lump a stopping 12 stone 7lb and is odds on to do so. Lay on that alone but the opposition is poor and so I can’t find enough to make it a weapons grade lay. They do win occasionally with that weight and this might just be one of them. I also think The Wicket Chicken can beat Cadeau Du Bresil with Big Meadow as cover but also not weapons grade and the one I’ve actually chosen for our play is chosen because here I give all five of the opposition a chance of dethroning Micquus who is in good form and has Daniel Sansom taking 5lb off but has to maintain a 16 length beating of Champion Chase LTO with an 11lb turnaround and must also now handle drying ground which is far from likely to suit. Champion Chase has been frustrating and hasn’t won one yet but came close at Plumpton in April last year under today’s jockey who does of course know how to ride this course. May also be preferring juice in the ground but at these weights will be disappointing if he can’t run Micquus close this time round.

And there are other dangers too. Howlongisafoot usually goes over further and has to carry a hefty top weight but is from another course specialist stable in flying form and high on the horses running to form percentages list which will make him an unsurprising winner. Lightentertainment isn’t out of it but I also really like the chances of Brother Bennett and Goonjim – the latter particularly as a course winner whose stable had a winner on Friday getting a stone from a fav who is very short priced for his chance under the weight rise against such a bunch of well treated competitors.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on MICQUUS (around 2.1 ; no greater than 2.75)

0.1pt BACK on GOONJIM (around 11.0 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

6th:     +0.343(+0.382) LAY @ 2.2

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 79/111 = 71.17% :   BACKS: 18/71 = 25.35%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.0 points.

Staggered acca number 8: (LEG 1)

0.25pt WIN on Wolverhampton Wanderers to beat Watford at Wembley (live on BBC) in 90 mins at best price (around 17/11)

I travelled to Wolverhampton on Thursday with an eye on this as a possible weapons grade footy bet. I am a black country boy and still have my contacts down there to whom I chatted all day before a crunch relegation chess match I was playing in the evening for Redditch against Wolverhampton. We lost 4-2 and now must win our last game of season v Bushbury on Tuesday to have any chance of staying in Division one of the Birmingham league. Don’t bet on that!

But do bet on Wolves tomorrow. Raul Jimenez has been a real revelation at the club and looks to me like a matchwinner for Wembley where Wolves have a tremendous record as a club. The City is emptying for the match. I talked to my train manager who gave details of the transport arrangements for Sunday morning. “Don’t come to the train station between 8am and 11am unless you are travelling to the match.” said he. My old muckers filled me in on their confidence that the club will even give City a fright in the final. I liked what I heard. Unlike the Grand National, I will be betting on this!

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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