BOZmail – 7th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY APRIL 7th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 22.9362 points (temporarily suspended)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 10.4606 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.90 points

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BOZmail 2020 cycle current overall profit = +5.2968 points

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LESS IS MORE: (temporarily suspended)

LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 23/36 = 63.88%  Backs: 9/26 = 34.61%

TUESDAY play in Crisis Corner

21-15 WILL ROGERS DOWNS

There is a possible double lay aspect to this race as I continue to search for a back winner in this crisis corner time. Wild Prospect form proved poor and Monday’s race was another unwanted flop.

Taruca and Miltontown re-engage over the longer distance at level weights after Miltontown came out on top LTO under a strong ride and having looked an unlikely winner at the top of the stretch. He stayed on stoutly and you’d think that leaves him the likely winner of the two again despite the extra distance. He just looked to have Taruca’s measure. The book however does cast doubt over Miltontown over the distance and might prefer Taruca who has done better when upped in trip. Miltontown looked to me however to possess the superior class and that is born out by the book with his maiden win coming in a classier race than any of these have contested. The distance doubt however does stop Miltontown from being the back and suggests a possible outsider winning it hence my decision to play here. Seattle Thunder offers us good LIM cover over the front two but does step up in class and I therefore choose Afleet Sniper who looks value to improve again now that he’s stepping up to the ideal distance he won over LTO as he also has a classy maiden win to his name over the shorter distance. Jockey booking also looks significant for Afleet Sniper. Floyd Werhey is a standing dish round here and could have ridden Taruca in theory. Could be significant that he has chosen the Pruitt horse.

Recommendations:

£2-50 LAY on TARUCA

£1 BACK on AFLEET SNIPER

Get the best prices that you can.

The Boz’s April US  Racing LIM results: (£100 bank)

1st:  -£4-85  (-£4-85) Lay @ 2.54 : Back @ 44.0

2nd:  NO BET

3rd: +£0-96  (-£3-89) Lay @ 2.3 : Back @ 8.7

4th: – £2-20  (-£6-09) Lay @ 1.6 : Back @ 14.0

5th: +£0-48  (-£5-61) Lay @ 2.16 : Back @ 5.15

6th: -£2-88   (-£8-49) Lay @ 1.94 : Back @ 13.0

Crisis Corner LIM Strike Rates: Lays 9/15 = 60% : Backs 0/7 = 0%

Good luck with your bets.

BOZ

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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