BOZmail 6th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

SUNDAY SEPTEMBER 6th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +14.5463 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.598 points (+4.598 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 19.0028 points (+11.0028 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.0945 points (+0.0945 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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US OPEN report DAY FIVE:

Putintseva took my banker score to 7/7 which was encouraging. See if I can’t keep that up!  Swiatek effected the comeback which was an excellent watch. She still shows immense class. Just those inexplicable immature switch offs to eliminate from her game. Mouthwatering match up v Azarenka for her next.

And my profound thanks to Miss Kostyuk for her second and third set efforts v Naomi Osaka. For a brief game or two, the lowly Ukranian looked like she was going to power through and demoralise the champ going 5-3 up second set and then winning the tie break. Also had the heavily strapped Osaka wobbling start of the third set where we got offered some 12.0 in the outrights (I averaged at 11.0) but the champ did that champ thing of stepping on the pedal when needed and pulled herself through mentally whilst the frustration got to Kostyuk who threw some serious wobbles of her own despite having composed herself well second set after the initial frustration of missing a set point at 5-3.Ultimately lost the match in her head not on her racquet. But during that brief window of having Osaka in trouble, the Osaka price in the outrights hit some heights and them’s all you need. Took two 30% stake hedges and Osaka now becomes a winner in my portfolio. And that’s the way it works. Good start to the early games on Friday! 

No joy with my outsider in the evening. And both of the late matches also went the wrong way although Brengle raced to a 2-0 lead first set allowing hedges in both the match bet and her portfolio bet. I took 2.6 in the match bet for just small free bet with the Putintseva double still there as my main profit (both doubles sadly went down) and even at that point Rogers’ power game looked pretty threatening and so it proved for most of the match. Kvitova v Pegula was more topsy turvy although the Czech champ was mainly in control but for a small window at the start of the second set when Pegula broke early and the Kvitova outright briefly hit 15.0. I took 0.3pt hedge at that but kind of wish I’d greened out now as after that Kvitova did take control looking reasonably imperious. She does however have Rogers and then Osaka next so more chances to hedge her should emerge. Because she was a large price liability however, her mark descends markedly now making chances to hedge her at higher numbers less likely. Hence my feeling now that I should have greened out when I had chance. Let’s hope I don’t live to regret that! She is my only minus figure in the portfolio now and I have only taken 50% hedge back on Rogers at her new lay price of 75.0 keeping her as a decent winner in the portfolio given that she looks set to give Kvitova a proper test on the surface. 

THIRD ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE TOP HALF OF THE DRAW – FRIDAY:

Banker : Yulia Putintseva to beat Aliksandra Sasnovich @ 1.86 – 0.1pt BACK – WON

P/L = +0.0843points

Value : Madison Brengle to beat Shelby Rogers @ 2.92 – 0.05pt BACK -LOST

Backed @ 2.92 : Hedged @ 2.6 : P/L = 0

Outsider : Magda Linette to beat Anett Kontaveit @ 5.0 – 0.05pt BACK – LOST

P/L = -0.05points

2 x 0.01pt doubles – Putinseva with each of the other two. – LOST : P/L = -0.02pts

3rd ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE DRAW- SATURDAY:

Banker Treble: Madison Keys to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.3

                           Sofia Kenin to beat Ons Jabeur @ 1.59

                           Serena Williams to beat Sloane Stephens @ 1.25   – 0.1pt STAKE

Value Bet:       Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Donna Vekic @ 2.72 -0.1pt STAKE

  • 0.05pt FOUR TIMER = Total spend of 0.25pts

I did think about this as just a four timer as Pironkova is in fact the biggest fancy. I flagged her up in my original preview as one in the category of deserving old timer who wins her slam at the last gasp attempt.32 years old now and a grass player ostensibly who has gone deep at Wimbledon and the US Open in her career. Comes here unranked having not played much past three years but that second round dump of Muguruza means she has brought her A game for one last throw of the dice!  She is one of my stable stars from over the betting years and I would love to see her do it. Not perhaps quite in the Pennetta category because of her ultimate preference for grass and I struggle to see her getting past Serena should the queen be at the top of her game. Likewise with Osaka perhaps but as we narrow to the final 32 now, things do happen in the draw. No gimmes any more and back form not quite so reliable as it is in the first two rounds.

All four of these have strong back form to make it potentially a strong four timer. But none are certs. Jabeur and Cornet are wily old warriors. Keys and Kenin could hit through but either only needs to be a notch below their best and the window of opportunity is likely to be snaffled. Jabeur is a master of the mix up and the mind game and she has been in fine form for a couple of years now. Likewise Serena on her A game has mastered Stephens in recent match ups but the younger pretender is a Slam champ now and still ultimately a possible to carry the crown on after Serena departs. The three American favs should all win but like I say, the one I fancy most of the four is Pironkova who has a historical 3-0 over Vekic and needs only to keep her nerve to exert her class there I’d say if she really has come with a mind to try and land the slam at last. Three years training for it out of the public eye? Mainly beefing up in the gym? It is what both Schiavone and Stosur did to finally land their slams. Pennetta likewise. So Pironkova goes into my portfolio in case. Just seen some footage of her with a dirty great extended serve arm bicep and shoulder extension too! She has also had a baby during her time off which I knew but had forgotten. Dunno what that implies good or bad! More pertinent is her first serve stat v Muguruza. 27 from 29 first serve points won. That is a high call for a woman not noted for her serve strength (was outdoing Muguruza by an average 5mph and Muguruza is a gigantic server). I shall roar her on past Vekic and leave the staking conservative as it is just in case I’m wrong and the market has it right!  

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4 – 2 x 0.3pt hedges taken @ 7.0 & 11.0  (+0.50)

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0 -0.3pt hedge @ 15.0   (-1.00)

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0 – 0.05pt hedge @ 75.0  (+7.75)

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0 -0.1pt hedge @ 170.0 – Eliminated

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0 – 0.05pt hedge taken @ 60.0    (+1.00)

0.05pt BACK on TSVETANA PIRONKOVA @ 100.0   (+5.50)

REST OF THE FIELD    (+0.50)

US OPEN TRADES: +0.1493 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.5395 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND THREE: +0.6888 points

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 75/106 = 70.75%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

2-45 FONTWELL

Friday’s scrubbed out LIM at Sedgefield was another loser so I’m saving money by doing nothing horse-wise at the moment. Sometimes, that’s how it has to be! Reason of course I also have the tennis in my armoury. 

Am playing this Fontwell juvenile hurdle however. Several dangers to Orchestral Rain who is very short. Newland’s string also not in fantastic form. Pipe brings a new French recruit that looks tasty whilst Talking About You gets the fillies allowance and looks preferential times wise to the fav. Topkapi Star and Big Jimbo should also be considered.

Recommendation:

0.18pt LAY on ORCHESTRAL RAIN (around 2.4)

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 8)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE RUNNING on SATURDAY:

4-10 STRATFORD – YOUNG WOLF @ 3/1 -0.25pt BACK

Backed @ 5.1 : Hedged @ 0.1pt@ 3.9-0.15pt @ 2.66 & 0.4pt @ 1.66 :

P/L = +0.392points

Took a third of my hedge before the off and took a couple of hedges in running including a 1.66 before two out when he looked to be going like the winner after a fab jump there. That handicap debut however caught him out at the last as he traded as low as 1.34 and lost basically to the superior jockeyship of Bryony Frost who really is worth her weight in those situations. Good effort though by the wolf who stays on the list for that. Might not be trading him NTO with that experience under his belt.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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