BOZmail – 6th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SUNDAY OCTOBER 6th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.6637 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY 

4-20 KELSO

You might remember way back in March when I flagged up Tokaramore on his chase debut behind Kupatana. Long way off that day but did run promisingly and has done nothing but improve since. Won cosily LTO and had Murphys Law behind who went on to frank the form. Ripstick likewise without winning and worth taking a look back at that Hexham race to see how much Tokaramore won it by. Has a penalty to carry but so has Danboru who I also like as a very genuine (but unlucky) sort and I have wrestled which of the two to back and stable form,times and price do lean me to Danboru as I write but my loyalties are with Tokaramore (and they are backing him as I write) so I’ll go small the two and pay for the back with a lay on Millarville who has changed stables but comes in from a very quiet yard,has lay off and chase debut to overcome and must also give weight all round which seems a tad unfair!

As I write, the market is all over the place with Millarville the early 5/2 fav with some but now best price 9/2 with others. My two are both 4/1 but also 2/1 favs in some books. So a case of get the best prices you can. Scratch the lay if Millarville goes at anything more than a 3/1 shot. 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on MILLARVILLE (around 3.5 : no greater than 4.0)

0.1pt BACK on TOKARAMORE

0.1pt BACK on DANBORU

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 167/256 = 65.23% :   BACKS: 48/172 = 27.90%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

5th:    +0.294 (-0.371) Lay @2.62

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ ASCOT on Saturday:

4-15 MISS CELESTIAL @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK – 2nd

(Backed @ 23.0 – Hedged 0.2pt @ 5.0) P/L = 0.099point

Ran much better than I hoped and is one to keep on lists for next year. I delayed my hedge in running thinking she might win but my nerve cracked half a furlong out and would still have been an excellent return if prevailing. That’s trading for you. Better than gambling? The more I go on, the more I think so.

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ KELSO on Sunday:

2-50 KAIZER @ 5/2 – 0.25pt BACK

Tempted not to trade this, just go for the back as I intimated. Hurdles looks his game and flat runs suggest he might make light of his penalty for winning.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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