BOZmail 6th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

TUESDAY OCTOBER 6th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +29.4594 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7701 points (+5.9171 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.7278 points (+24.7278 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 85/119 = 71.42%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

NO BET

Flat only on Tuesday but the day’s bet does take place there as Custard The Dragon lines up at Southwell (see below).

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

6th: NO BET

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY TEN)

Correction: Iga Swiatek was Wimbledon Junior Champion in 2018.

I have contemplated trading the Swiatek – Trevisan as a match play to cover if the unthinkable happens and Swiatek fails to back up her remarkable fourth round performance. There was something about the closed roof that might have favoured the teenager and her serve and wind and weather would be my only worry about her winning on Tuesday. Maybe Trevisan will handle wild conditions better. The other slight worry is that I know very little about Trevisan but time I think to put my faith in the Pole (and myself). She was a spot in May 2019 as a sure future slam winner. It has come along as a possibility sooner than expected really but definitely here now. Time I think to become a fan and watch her achieve her dream. The bet is on. There is a small consolation in the portfolio if she bricks it and I’m still working on an optimisation in the portfolio betting that involves including Danielle Collins (and hedging her back) but she has to beat Ons Jabeur first and that match is delayed by rain in Paris as I write.

Keep an eye on it. If Collins goes through, I shall include her as a back at 0.05pt because I think she has strong chance of beating Kenin or Ferro and is also an outsider with a chance against Kvitova -my overall expectation of finalist from the bottom half of the draw now.

Two other Swiatek profit optimisation strategies involve backing Ferro should she get past Kenin (match also delayed) with a view to hedging back and a lay on Svitolina who I fancy least as outright winner. But that lay will come before semi final when I expect her price to have contracted further from its current 4.8. Don’t really want to lay at 4.8. Explain that further should we get to the Swiatek-Svitolina semi.

Mainly I think Swiatek could win tomorrow from the off so I’ll only get involved in a match bet trading hedge on Trevisan if it starts badly for the Pole. She does have the Italian covered on paper from the Edgbaston 2019 tournament and I believe in her. Fan talk again I know but I’m in there cheering for Iga. It is the bet I’ve lined up and there is no lose if it fails. That’ll do for now.

But the Collins & Ferro inclusion should they get through today’s delayed matches and the Svitolina lay at semi final stage which I’ll come back to. Them’s the plans and the recommendations!   

DAY NINE FOURTH ROUND MATCH TRADES:

0.1pt BACK SHUAI ZHANG to beat Petra Kvitova @ 4.1 – LOST (trade break even)

Backed @ 4.6 : hedged @ 3.95 : P/L = 0

Went mere free bet on this. Kvitova did come out with her determined face and Zhang duly put up little resistance. Some days they are up for it. Others it seems like they just go through the motions!

0.1pt BACK PAULA BADOSA to beat Laura Siegemund @ 2.24 – LOST (trade win)

Backed @ 2.4 : 0.2pt hedge @ 1.3 : P/L = +0.098pts 

Did think Badosa was dominating first set and I might have slanted the hedge the wrong way but Siegemund, as is her want, refuses to lie down!

Outrights Portfolio- Quarter Finals Position:

Iga Swiatek  (+1.325)

Martina Trevisan  (+0.125)

Elina Svitolina (+0.125)

Nadia Podoroska (+0.125)

Petra Kvitova (+0.125)

Laura Siegemund (+0.125)

Ons Jabeur or Danielle Collins (+0.125)

Sofia Kenin or Fiona Ferro (+0.125) 

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.3121pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE on the flat on Tuesday:

8-20 SOUTHWELL – CUSTARD THE DRAGON @ 12/1 – 0.2pt BACK

The old boy back at his beloved venue over an extra furlong. The doubt that injects has kept his price out and I have no reason to think it won’t suit as he gets on in years. Been staying on in his recent turf efforts over a mile the way he always does. Putting best work in at the end and trying his heart out. That sort of horse. On his mark for this and the race read identifies a few with an equal chance including Cape Greco who is closely matched on past form. Also Lion Tower,Compass Point and Break The Silence. So competitive enough and each way chance at an each way price if that is your way. Races at Southwell can often be run ten times with ten different winners and that applies to this bet. No cert. But Custard is a horse to follow right enough. Always pays back those that do. I shall be trading him using my half stake back before the off and half saved for in play to be left as late as possible if he’s running well and giving the ‘be there at the death’ vibe as is his wont.

One slight negative is that jockey Graham Lee chooses to go to Catterick for four rides (and so there could well be a tip in that) but Mullen has ridden him before and not a huge negative for me. This is about the horse who does his best for you back at his spiritual home. I shall Get the best price I can and hedge as appropriate (saving some for in play trade) and when preferential odds are on offer. Been waiting a while for this bet and this is where patience pays off if the portents are on our side.

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Sedgefield (Oct 7)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

Wenceslaus

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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