BOZmail 6th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

FRIDAY NOVEMBER 6th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +43.2394 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.2041 points (+8.2041 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 44.6358 points (+36.6358 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.5485 points (-0.4515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 101/139 = 72.66%  Backs : 27/89 = 30.33%

2-35 FONTWELL

Well I got the Henderson jockey factor right on Thursday and two or three out I thought Really Super was poised to bring a long awaited decent priced back winner for LIM before he blew up. Turns out his job was to run the finish out of Casablanca but I wouldn’t have backed the winner even if I had known that! The power of LIM again getting us a winner in a race that didn’t really go as I expected. With a glut of fallers at Newbury and Sedgefield also, was that sort of NH day and done ok to come out of it with only little damage.

And on to Fontwell on Friday and a stab at the Breeders cup too! All good fun! This handicap Chase has a good shape to it (despite one runner too many) and I fancy a few of the outsiders encouraged by the shortlist which has highlighted Go Long and Haldon Hill as its two for the race. I also like Shintori who is a fragile so and so who sometimes finds nothing in a finish but has had a wind op and is blessed with trainer and jockey who both love this track and might need a career best to win this but the wind op might help with that and ground looks on his side as does the bottom weight and I won’t be surprised to see a classic Schofield waiting race here and if the distance also helps Shintori find his finish up the hill where he has won before, I think he is betting value at 11/1 and you might get bigger on the exchanges.

In deciding which favourite to take on, I contemplated the double lay because Go Long does look to me like the class in the race and is also betting value but the booking of Tom Queally on Bad Boy Du Poldu stays my hand. Never seen him ride for Gary Moore over jumps before and he did win easy here LTO and is the race fit horse in the field along with Haldon Hill so I won’t oppose him and simply take on Go Steady who does have the penalty and the long lay off to overcome. Finnegan’s garden is also good LIM cover as a standing dish round here for Page Fuller and Zoe Davison. Like the top two she has penalty to shoulder but is the best value really of the top three in the betting.

Recommendations:

0.2pt LAY on GO STEADY (around 3.3)

0.05pt BACK on GO LONG (around 7.5)

0.05pt BACK on SHINTORI (around 12.0 or bigger)

LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th:  NO BET

5th:  +0.098   (+0.3013) Lay @ 1.98 : Backs @ 9.0 & 51.0

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE in the Breeders Cup on Friday:

8-10 Keeneland – BATTLEGROUND @ 5/1 – 0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds

are offered.

I won’t pretend to have fully race read this. Way out of my league! Just very taken with this horse on his Royal Ascot showing and can see he has been saved and prepared for this tilt in the big one -The Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Mile. Ryan Moore has gone over through quarantine to ride all the O’Brien horses and this looks to me like their best shout on Day One. I shall be trading the price pre-race and leaving myself some 1.1 and 1.01 hedge potential in running. It could be close!

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou – Entered @ Wincanton (Nov 7)

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @Huntingdon (Nov 10) & Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre – Entered @ Aintree (Nov 7)

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9) & Hereford (Nov 10)

She’s a Rocca(heavy) – Entered @ Ayr (Nov 11)

Charm Offensive – Entered @ Hexham (Nov 6)

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road – Entered @ Sandown (Nov 8)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14) & King George (Dec 26)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Hereford (Nov 10)

Stormy Ireland -Entered for Bangor (Nov 11)

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

Zamani 

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

Dusart – Entered @ Sandown (Nov 8)

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW @ NEWBURY on THURSDAY:

12-20 Zamani @ 11/1 – FELL

12-55 Soaring Glory @ 5/6 – 2nd

3-05 Redford Road @ 5/1 – Unplaced

3 x 0.05pt doubles and a 0.05pt treble. Total stake = 0.2pts -LOST

Bit unlucky I think. Zamani fell when still travelling well (although the winner was impressive) and Soaring Glory bumped into one. His Henderson conqueror (the one Nico went for!) makes the To Follow for that as the pair pulled clear of a good field.

Redford Road disappointing.Made a fair pre race trade backed at 16.0 and heged back at 8.0 and travelled to three out in good challenging position but faded from there and looks to be one to leave off the list for a while. Needs to be given easier assignment by the looks and that form from Perth not holding up well.

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ HEXHAM on FRIDAY:

1-45 – CHARM OFFENSIVE @ 16/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and/or when preferential odds

are offered.

First time out over hurdles so that to be factored but gets her ground and if she jumps,she does come from that Lady Bowes race at Ayr and we’ve waited a long time for this. Good value but a pre race trade for me leaving some for the inplay 1.1 and 1.01 hedges given that express train finish she engineered on heavy ground. Ideal for the head bob finish!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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