BOZmail – 6th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

MONDAY MAY 6th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: MONDAY PLAY

4-40 KEMPTON

Ended the losing streak and got good value on the back but just a stop the rot rather than a recovery as such and decided to go into lockdown for a bit to start the recovery with the picking winners groove a bit blunted at the moment.

Did look at two races for Monday and considered the next leg of the staggered acca but decided instead to crack away at the LIM deficit start to May with a small lay on Dolos who has to give lumps of weight to these and although it doesn’t look a great race, Dolos is not known for handling fast ground and I can thus make a case for all the other four against him without actually brimming over with confidence.

On another day, I might make a stab at a back on the two outsiders Cut The Corner and particularly Dandridge who both have to make a comeback to form but this is time of year for that and Dandridge stable/jockey combo also has potential. But all in all, time for discipline and a grind to get the minus reduced so just a low risk stake lay on the day.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DOLOS (around 2.2 : no greater than 2.4)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

5th:   +0.095 (-2.088) LAY @ 1.95 : BACK @ 9.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 97/139 = 69.78% :   BACKS: 22/89 = 24.71%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

No current entries

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

 I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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