BOZmail – 6th JANUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

SUNDAY JANUARY 6th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

Stands at 25.5 points after month 1

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

3-30 NEWCASTLE

Best way to sidestep a loser? Tip a non-runner! I did look at playing a substitute but a forced tip is like a forced poem. Destined to doom and part of the zen discipline in this game is patience and looking at the positives. We didn’t have a loser and turned out the best play on a very difficult day (anybody out there have a winning Saturday?) was to stay in the same race and lay the adopted odds on fav who got beat. Didn’t fancy it and wouldn’t have picked the winner. Happy to have ended the day break even! Watched a few races without betting and got a bumper horse I like back on my to follow list with an entry next week. See below.Reboot and go again.

Was desperately keen to play in the 1-10 at Plumpton Sunday which is a magnificently high quality Novice Chase for the venue and time of year. Features a talking horse round these parts called Knocknanuss who I ought to know but I don’t so with Master Dino very hard to shift on paper and despite my fondness for the Moore stable and the form they were in at Sandown on Saturday, I’ve decided on a watching brief. The three chase debutantes all look tasty aswell with Slate House of particular interest if he looks a chasing type. Expect the winner to go on my To follow list if Master Dino doesn’t win.

I head instead to the all weather where I might be a lot from now on alongside the tennis courts of Melbourne. Australian Open starts next Monday and I shall be covering the Ladies event there. Except some late night grunting thrills if you ain’t savvy with women’s tennis. I have a hot fancy to follow in the tournament called Aryna Sabalenka who just won her prep tourney in China with a couple of seriously gutsy wins over Sharapova and Alison Riske. Looking forward to introducing you to the excitement of watching her in action if you ain’t seen her yet. She’s electric.

A class 4 at Newcastle meantime where Call Out Loud comes back down in class but is beatable on this surface at this track which won’t obviously suit. Plenty of dangers with Supreme Power the value one with form at the track and a stable coming into gear. Portledge also likes it here and is well rated and weighted and Made of Honour would be a big danger if coming back to form on second race since the wind op. Always a system to watch for along with horses having a dump at the start! Has a very high strike rate of winners!

 

Still early January for me though and sticking to just a modest lay on the fav with most of the fun on Sunday, as it was on Saturday, in watching stuff with a view to the future.

 

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on CALL OUT LOUD

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 27.5/33 = 83.33% :   BACKS: 4/20 = 20%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

 

Stands at 14.75 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way.I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Willoughby Court *

Waiting Patiently *

Rebel Og  

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars  

Itchy Feet *

Frodon *

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons *

Ribble Valley  – Entered at AYR (Jan 8)

La Bague au Roi *  

Benatar *

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication *

Rockys Treasure

Valtor

Ruby Yeats

Lostintranslation*

Cliffs of Dover*

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  – Entered at MUSSELBURGH (Jan 7)

 

Couple of bumper horses entered for this week including Zakharova who I re-introduce here after starring on the BUMPER to BUMPER trial last year.Won well on Saturday carrying his penalty and might well go again here.Ribble Valley also has penalty to carry but interestingly kept to the bumper scenario. Watch this space for gen as the overnights are declared.

 

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.5 points.

 

Nothing doing here at the moment whilst I ponder the next step.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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