BOZmail – 6th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 6th 2019

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stands at 25.83 points after month 2

 

LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY

20-37 PARX ( running on Tuesday evening 5.2.19)

Mrs Vonn sadly did bounce but Parlour Maid happily did not and gets on my to follow for that effort which was quite impressive after the last carrying a penalty. Takes a decent horse to do that.

So the February mend inches forward a tad further but still work to do and Wednesday looks a tricky day again in the UK and so I do as promised and send a US LIM for tonight at Parx. This is Wednesday’s play but will happen TONIGHT @ 20-37 LIVE ON BETFAIR. If it does well, this might become a trend whilst instability remains in UK weather. Bucketed down around here today and no racing possible here tomorrow (if any had been due to meet. I suspect Ayr might become threatened) but in any case I never found a good LIM in the UK comb through and I found this as a happy alternative with two non runners to make it a six horse field.

2Kingslayer (KY)L Pinero15/1

3We B Jammin (NJ)A R Rodriguez6/1

4Adventist (KY)A Salgado30/1

5Hodor (KY)M J Sanchez1/2

6Cheddar Chub (NJ)D Castillo15/1

7Quality Asset (KY)L A Rodriguez Castro9/2

 

The listing and tissue is courtesy of Betcris and I don’t know how accurate it will be but Hodor sure to be a short priced favourite and he’s the lay to be taken on with We B Jammin & Quality Asset.

Parx is a track I have specialised in ever since I took up US racing seriously and I have been trialling a through the card staggered acca there in recent months with good results and I may be offering a live in running PODCAST service for the track in the months ahead if we can get our heads around the technology. I have done live at the track tipping gigs before but only in the UK and in the days before internet technology developed as it has. More on that in the weeks ahead if these few samples of US LIM on BLWM work out ok.

The rationale for tonight’s race is very much LIM inspired. A favourite to take on because of its price so if for some reason it drifts markedly, you cancel the lay and simply play the backs. It is a track where incidence of fav victories is very low given that fav ID is not quite the same as in UK betting anyway with on course TAB betting forming the markets in the US. Very accurate at some courses. Very much less so here. Quality Asset on a direct formline with HODOR and value to reverse form with WE B JAMMIN the premier fancy taking the bigger class drop – always a factor to note in US events.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on HODOR (at anything odds on. If he drifts to 2.5 or greater, you might reduce stake by 0.1pt per every 0.2 points the price drifts and don’t bet if he is offered at 3.0 or greater)

0.15pt BACK on WE B JAMMIN

0.1pt BACK on QUALITY ASSET

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 42/57 = 73.68% :   BACKS: 7/35 = 20%

 

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NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points

Stands at 14.5375 points

 

The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.

 

From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.

 

2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:

(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)

Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)

Return Ticket  

Adjourned

Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)  

Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)

Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)

Ask Paddington

Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)

Ribble Valley  

La Bague au Roi *  – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Benatar

Captain Zebo

Magic of Light  – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Unwin VC

Nicolas Chauvin

Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)

Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)

Ruby Yeats – Entered for Kempton (Feb 8)

Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)

Cliffs of Dover

Ebony Gale

Zakharova  

Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)

Happy Diva

Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)

Kaiser Black

Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)

Parlour Maid

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points.

Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)

Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.

 

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Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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