BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail
Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.
WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 6th 2019
LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points
Stood at 26.0 points after month 1
Stands at 25.83 points after month 2
LESS IS MORE: WEDNESDAY PLAY
20-37 PARX ( running on Tuesday evening 5.2.19)
2Kingslayer (KY)L Pinero15/1
3We B Jammin (NJ)A R Rodriguez6/1
4Adventist (KY)A Salgado30/1
5Hodor (KY)M J Sanchez1/2
6Cheddar Chub (NJ)D Castillo15/1
7Quality Asset (KY)L A Rodriguez Castro9/2
BOZmail golden rule Number 1. Try to look where others do not.
I did at least point you to that. Sadly I also picked one of the two races out of nine where the favourite won. That ratio of winning favourites was my rationale but what you saw if you watched the markets was why I make the claim that Fixed Odds tipping is dead in the water (mind you, I have been saying that for 15 years now).
I posted the above market up around 5pm UK time – 3 and a half hours before the event took place. Then I sat down to watch the market. Hodor was a lay at 2.0 and so I placed 20% of my intended 0.5pt stake at that and watched to see if it came in to 1.5 as expected and predicted on the above tissue. He was a standout on the time sheets but also running at Parx where 75% of favs get beat. And there were two who could beat him on paper as I flagged up.
What happened was that at approx 6pm UK time Hodor was offered on the market as a 4.5 back. Some 4.6 and 4.8 briefly appeared but the 4.5 was there a while and was copiously matched. I had 0.05pt @ 4.5 and was thus on a 50% ROI if he won and a 33.33% ROI if he lost as I figured he might.
Satchel was shut. A 50% ROI means the race is no longer relevant. You get that? Happens all the time on Betfair when you look where others do not.
Although the race was now a formality I stuck around because I’m interested in this process. I had pointed you to a place where you could make easy money and on top of what I took there were plenty more opportunities for arbitrage for those not happy with the 50% ROI I shut my satchel on.
We B Jammin was my preferred back you remember. Back in the day when I thought I might be watching the race!! 6/1 on the tissue I posted. 11/2 on the Betfair Sportsbook which was posted around 6pm. Hodor was 4/11 on that. That stayed consistent throughout the three hours I watched the market.
The next main event was a flurry of matched bets on We B Jammin at between 2.0 and 3.0. Around £800 staked at that level. On a 6/1 shot!!! I could have stayed and started scooping that. My bookmaker antennae was seriously a quiver but I desisted because of course maybe I was the one responsible for all that activity. Did anyone out there back We B Jammin at even money????? Jeez.
I see what Donald Trump meant now by Fake news. There’s some numpty tipster out there saying Hodor the 4/11 fav is gonna get beat. We better pile in on the 6/1 shot at even money quick!!
That ain’t how it works. You back at the prices. Buy Low. Sell High. Just like on Ebay. Buy the secondhand telly for 2 quid and sell it for 35. Buy Hodor at 2.0 and sell for 4.5.
If you came to this service to make easy money, I did just point you to the window. If you came cos you like watching horse racing, well my apologies for pointing you to Hodor. As soon as I saw him in the paddock, I feared I’d picked the wrong fav to oppose fixed odds wise. He looked as fit as a flea and ran like one.
So maybe I won’t be doing that again. You tell me what you thought. I’ve made all sorts of assumptions here about who I am talking to. Just in case I am seriously wide of the mark, I say now the thing I perhaps should have said before I began.
The most important thing about any bet you place is not the question of whether or not it will win. It is the price you take it at. Get that wrong and you are on a loser even if it does win. The way to make money for certain is to trade. Place the bet when the price is right. Take it back if and when the price is wrong. Bookmakers have stayed wealthy for centuries on that premise. Now we too can do same.
BLWM LIM strike rates: LAYS: 42/58 = 72.41% : BACKS: 7/36 = 19.44%
NH TO FOLLOW LIST STARTING BANK = 15 points
Stands at 14.5375 points
The Bozmail to follow list has a combination of simply the most exciting horses I’ve seen in current race watching and a selection of those I’ve gotten to know over the years who are getting close to the place where they can be expected to win again. The list is ever changing and I have a subs bench of horses waiting to get on all the time. Candidates also disappear with regularity if they underperform or look to have shot their bolt in the win. So a fluid list that you’ll see altering all the time. I’ll log entries on this sheet as they occur and recommend staking advices on the day they are due to run after I’ve had chance to assess the race they are competing in. These selections can be backed to fixed odds or traded either in or before running as is your preference. There is profit whichever way you play over time.
From June 2018, The Bozmail switched to recommending trading the majority of these runners, including inplay trading, to back at optimum prices and hedge accordingly when appropriate. Profit figures were increased on previous years because of that so if you feel confident enough to approach like that, by all means. I will certainly be playing that way. I shall however post as fixed odds selections and the service arbiter will settle all results to Betfair SP in line with his fairness to all policy.
2019 BOZmail NH JUMPERS TO FOLLOW:
(* indicates early candidates for Cheltenham Festival Glory)
Waiting Patiently * – Entered for Ryanair Chase (Mar 14)
Dynamite Dollars* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)
Itchy Feet * – Entered for Supreme Novices (Mar 12)
Frodon * – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14) & Gold Cup (Mar 15)
Lady Buttons * – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12) & Queen Mother (Mar 13)
La Bague au Roi * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)
Magic of Light – Entered for Punchestown (Feb 10) & Grand National (Apr 6)
Vinndication * – Entered for RSA (Mar 13) & JLT (Mar 14)
Valtor – Entered for Ryanair (Mar 14),Magners & Gold Cup (Mar 15)&National (Apr 6)
Ruby Yeats – Entered for Kempton (Feb 8)
Lostintranslation* – Entered in JLT (Mar 14)
Cliffs of Dover
Indian Opera – Entered for OLBG (Mar 12)
Elegant Escape – Entered for Gold Cup (Mar 15) & Grand National (Apr 6)
Le Richebourg* – Entered for the Arkle (Mar 12) & JLT (Mar 14)
STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points
Stands at 9.75 points.
Staggered acca number 5: (LEG 3)
Awaiting next weapons grade selection. Will shout when it appears.
Good Luck with your bets.
The BOZmail golden rules:
1/ Try to look where others do not.
2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)
3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)
4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)
5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.
I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.