BOZmail – 6th FEBRUARY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY FEBRUARY 6th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently standing at 20.539 points

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently standing at 8.049 points

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently standing at 4.99 points

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LESS IS MORE: Thursday play

6-30 NEWCASTLE

Can’t play the only NH qualifier of the day as the pick is 4/11 fav which brings me to my substitute on the all weather. Didn’t exactly cover myself in glory there on Wednesday and can’t say I’ve played much at all on the all weather this winter but this looks a nice competitive affair where the fav is short enough and has its few negatives with the main one being a stable that haven’t had a winner in ages although he does have a runner in the 7-40 at Wolverhampton tonight. I shall be keeping an eye on result there to see that stable isn’t ready to swing back into form!

Heath Charnock did have the look of a horse coming towards his win LTO but doesn’t have much if anything in hand on my figures over Louis Treize whose stable are in 83% performing to form mode and he gets a marginal plus from me. Julie Camacho’s stable runs at 100% so Mythical Spirit is value at 15/2 but my back to very small money is Michael Appleby’s Moon Trouble at 14/1. Distance may be short for him but he does have 5f winning form in France and Appleby has coaxed a win out of him in this country off 85 so he is quite well in at 78 and there is a time figure and a decent LTO run that definitely puts him in with a shout on paper and at the price must be worth a tickle.Just so long as he doesn’t fall out the stalls like today’s 2/5 sprinter at Southwell! Can’t say I imagined my first back of the cycle on a horse like Moon Trouble but BOZmail rule number one does apply and I also like his name so I’ll cautiously invest!

Recommendations:

0.15pt LAY on HEATH CHARNOCK (around 3.0 : upper value parameter 3.4)

0.05pt BACK on MOON TROUBLE ( 15.0 or better if you can get it)

 LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 3/3 = 100%  Backs: 0/0

THE BOZ’s daily LIM record for FEBRUARY:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.3

2nd: +0.147 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.28

3rd: +0.196 (+0.539) Lay @ 2.9

4th:  NO BET DAY

5th: NO BET DAY

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Unwin VC* 

Tea Clipper* – Entered for Huntingdon (Feb 6)

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for RSA & Marsh Novices (Mar 11&12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle & Mares Hurdle (Mar 10)

Maire Banrigh* – Entered for Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Wenceslaus* 

Thyme Hill* – Entered for Ballymore & Albert Bart(Mar 13)

Nordano – Entered at Uttoxeter (Feb 8)

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 

Vinndication 

Lostintranslation* – Entered for Gold Cup at Cheltenham (Mar 13)

Cat Tiger* – Entered for Ballymore (Mar 11) & Albert Bartlett (Mar 13)

Welsh Saint* 

Normandy Soldier* 

Jatiluwih 

Esprit Du Large – Entered for The Arkle (Mar 10) & Marsh Novices (Mar 12)

Magic of Light* – Entered for Mares Hurdle Chelt (Mar 10) & Grand National (Apr 4)

Defi Sacre* 

Lieutenant Rocco – Entered for the Albert Bartlett Novice (Mar 13)

Israel Champ

Soaring Glory 

Ambion Hill 

Saint De Reve

NH TO FOLLOW TRADE PLAY on THURSDAY:

3-05 HUNTINGDON – TEA CLIPPER @ 3/1 – 0.15pt BACK

For those of you who came a cropper on Ambion Hill on Saturday – a reasonably straight forward trading profit play -, I stress the basic premise that the golden rule of trading and the advice I put out if you do decide to follow this aspect of the BOZmail, is BACK at the best price you can get and HEDGE as and when you are offered preferential odds. This can be done a myriad of ways and if you haven’t done trading before, the advice is to take it steady and watch and learn rather than risk your conkers at something you have little experience of. There is quite a lot to learn to become a successful trader and I don’t pretend to teach that on here (although I will always help with advice when I can). Nor do I pretend that you can’t just back these as gambles in the normal way if that is your preference. I put them up as trades these days as I have found it a better way to consistent profit long term with a to follow list that is derived from horses I’ve seen that have impressed me and look likely future winners. When they will win is another matter (and I always try to help with predicting that when appropriate because the horses on here often become gambles as well when conditions and the time is right) but they are also on here because I expect them to run well and a horse that is expected to run well is an ideal sort to trade on. It doesn’t have to win then to show a profit in the fast moving exchange world that we now live in.

The dangers of trading without experience are manifold as some of you found out on Saturday. If in doubt, watch for a while and see where the opportunities to take best back price and lay hedge back price occur and why they occur and log this into your experiential learning – for learning successful trading is undoubtedly experiential.

Use markers in the early days as these can help with the fast decision making and arithmetic demands. It was a marker that helped my profit on Ambion Hill on Saturday as I reported although I don’t use them often these days. It was in place on Saturday before the race began as I hadn’t managed my hedge by time race began. This is a good early days device and it can always be cancelled or changed in play if you see something to cause a change of mind or plan – the main plan being to realise a profit of some sort and not to lose! I don’t use markers before the race much any more because I am always watching the changes until such time as my hedge is achieved.

The usual gambling edicts apply. Research and hard work reap dividends, caution and safety first are always advisable and getting greedy and trying to land a big wallop is always fraught with the possibility of ending up down the toilet! As I wrote to a new member last weekend, the two things you urgently need to learn to deal with if you are new to it are the emotions resulting when you hedge and then your quarry goes on to win (hence you doing worse than you would have if you’d gambled) and the satisfaction you feel from winning when the horse you were following lost. I get a lot from the latter and have learned to deal with the former and like trading for those reasons but until you’ve mastered them or experienced them to see how you react to them, it is fair to say trading may not be for you. It certainly doesn’t suit everybody.

I offer and publish my to follow list because a lot of winners come from it but how you use it is up to you really. Don’t feel you have to trade on it just because I do. Treat it as some research I’ve done to find future winners to be backed in your own way with my blessing.

All that said, I shall be trading on Tea Clipper on Thursday. This is a horse I really like who has won for us already, running up in class here and without his usual champion jockey on his back. So a test rather than a race he can be really fancied to win. He might win it and it will be a tremendous effort if he does. I shall play to make my profit simply from his attempt by backing at best price I can get and hedging as and when I am offered preferential odds. Some of you asked me to log how I do this but that is a biggish task and I’m not sure I have the time (or inclination) for all that given that for me, trading entails total concentration on a market and a race that can often last over 24 hours from time of conceiving (now) up to time of race finishing(tomorrow afternoon). Lots can happen in that time frame to affect things and I play to optimise profit these days (experienced enough to attempt that now but far from an expert still). What I advise for those new to it is to stick with the basic premise and play to small amounts whilst you are learning. That basic premise is still what I concentrate most on. Back at the best price I can get and hedge when offered preferential odds.  There can be much more to it than that when you start trying for profit optimization.

But there doesn’t have to be. It works at that level alone if you are keen, have the time to give to it and don’t get greedy! 

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

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OCCASIONAL ACCA FOR WEDNESDAY FEBRUARY 5th:

1-30 SOUTHWELL – MULZIM @ 11/8 – 1st

2-0 SOUTHWELL – LADYLEYS BELUGA @ 10/11 – U 

2-15 LUDLOW – PAINT THE DREAM @ 4/6 – U

3-30 SOUTHWELL – MOSAKHAR @ 13/8 – 2nd

4-30 SOUTHWELL – ARABIAN KING @ 4/6 – 1st

= odds of 33.86 at those prices.

0.01pt WIN ACCUMULATOR – LOST

Not my finest hour with second & third legs running dismally and the only ones making profit on Wednesday were those who cashed out after first leg or those who played stop at a winner. For the record, my considered LIM was to lay Mosakhar but I shied away because I thought he’d beat Directory which he just about did. Brains however made a mockery of both the form and my race read!

ANTE POST ACCA FOR CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL:

Lostintranslation @ 8/1

Verdana Blue @ 33/1

Marie Banrigh @ 25/1

Thyme Hill @ 6/1

0.01pt WIN ACCA with acca edge accepted. Whoops, I misread the acca edge deal on betfair Sportsbook. Should have known it was too good to be true. It’s stake refunded if one leg goes down and reduced odds on the acca if all legs come in.Sod that! That’s rubbish value. Apologies for that. No damage done on the above if you took it. It still pays £55k if they all come in and we still have various hedge and cover play options on the above as we near the event.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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