BOZmail – 6th DECEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

 

Welcome to the two week trial of the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

 

THURSDAY DECEMBER 6th 2018

 

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

 

LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

1-55 MARKET RASEN

 

Six runner handicap chases were the meat and drink in the early days of the Less Is More tactical approach. I have refined and diversified in the three and a half years since inception but they remain a fascination and a challenge and I often come back to them when on a goodish run and with a bit of bookmaker’s leeway money to invest. As we have here after a winning three days this week. And so a little more adventurous. Not to the point of wrecklessness you understand. Not called the tortoise for nothing and not in the business of giving back what we have accumulated so far. Simply playing up a little and concentrating more on finding the winner than on the one to beat. Using the latter though to fund the former as the system was so designed for.

I am working without tissue on this race thanks to personal obligations this evening that I can’t escape and so without accurate insight into likely prices I will be putting price parameters on the proposed lay of the day which is topweight Pookie Pekan who does look the less likely of the two heavyweights in this to prevail. The step up in distance not guaranteed to suit on breeding and previous efforts over further have been his worst attempts so far. Last week’s win at Wetherby was creditable on Handicap Chase debut but he does get a clattering weight penalty for it and twelve five is a tough ask for any horse to carry to victory even allowing for his regular rider's claim.He looks also to suit Wetherby where he also won his hurdle race and the Rasen is a very different track – right handed and much nippier types required. Happy to lay so long as the price doesn’t exceed 5.5 but only to smallish stake at that price. Should he be priced less than that I leave you to apply a suitable sliding scale to the stake/liability ratio as I am using him only to fund the small go I’m having at finding the winner – fairly sure as I am that he won’t win. Should his price exceed 5.5 simply abandon the lay aspect of the race and play simply on the split stake back that I propose.

Of the other five, I draw a line through Apache Pilot,Houndscourt and Accessallareas – the latter as hopelessly out of the handicap and long in the tooth to boot and the former as hopelessly out of form. Houndscourt is a Chase debutant in all but name after an unseat LTO which inspired no confidence in his future over the larger obstacles. Leaving Blakerigg and Mahlerdramatic as my split stake backs. The former has the class and breeding in the race but also has to overcome a clattering penalty for what has turned into a good debut chase win LTO after a wind op that seems to have sorted the problem of the Pulled up time before that. Instingtive franked that form with an excellent run at Carlisle last week and if you go three races back in Blakerigg’s form, he was very badly hampered in his previous pulled up race when in the process of running another good one following on from a promising second at Doncaster before that. All in all, has the scope to outshine this lot and is the most likely winner in my book should the penalty be successfully carried. If it is not so effectively borne,the value alternative carrying over a stone less than the top two is Mahlerdramatic who is actually very well rated in the context of this race and although not really with the form in place, could improve and run past the two heavily burdened horses at a rewarding price.

 

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on POOKIE PEKAN at anything under 5.5

0.15pt BACK on BLAKERIGG

0.1pt BACK on MAHLERDRAMATIC

 

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 4/5 = 80%

                                          BACKS: 1/3 = 33.33%

 

**************************************************************************************************

 

STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

(remember that stake of successful first leg bet is always returned directly to bank and that stake for leg two is simply the winnings from leg one. So 0.45pts returned to bank which is retained at 10 points thanks to superb never say die from Redditch again for second time in a week!)

 

STAGGERED FOOTBALL ACCA for SATURDAY December 1st:

FIRST LEG:

Southern League Central Division:

Redditch to beat Kings Lynn @ 9/5 or better – 0.25 pts

Redditch-Kings Lynn draw @ 29/10 or better – 0.2 pts – WON

 

We will start the second leg – free bet – stage of the staggered acca with a stake of 0.33pts (Saturday’s winnings). Watch this space for the advice as it emerges. May be next Saturday’s Redditch match at St Neots but could also be something else that emerges sooner or something later if the St Neots fixture is deemed not weapons grade after careful study during the week.

 

Good Luck with your bets.

 

BOZ

 

The BOZmail golden rules:

 

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a price. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges)

5/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

 

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

 

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