BOZmail – 6th DECEMBER – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 




Stands at 64.8785 points after month 12 (+44.8785 points profit)



= -0.6points



Current Total      = +7.5813 points



Current Total      = +14.9977 points


BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +66.8575 points




I used the double lay to good effect last week of November and I’m tempted to go that route again here as both favs in the market are priced up short but both look to me like they want quicker ground and it has belted down with rain up North today so don’t be surprised to see heavy again at Sedgefield tomorrow.

Agamemmon looks on first glance to have a good chance based on his LTO second which was a decent effort FTO for the season but on closer inspection the time was unspectacular and thus the soft ground was a negative for a horse that has done best work on good ground. Agamemmon is at least on a decent mark whilst Boric – who looks to want further anyway – is still quite harshly treated courtesy of his running consistently without winning. Hasn’t won a race for two and a half years now and is another whose form suggests good ground required these days as he gets older.

The shortlist is keen on Crank Em Up who does have good figures but has a layoff to overcome and a long one. For that reason, I keep him as cover only as my reason for coming to this race in the first place was topweight Justforjames who is a horse I know quite well. Not an obvious candidate for the distance and on first glance also looks on a stopper mark – 6lb above previous win mark – and also not an obvious on the ground. Closer inspection shows that he has won here on heavy however and there is also a distinct suggestion that he will benefit from the distance and has been trained with that in mind. Not obvious from his breeding but the stated reason for improved form in the past has been the gradual step up in distance. So three negatives potentially overcome. The positives are that Hammond loves to win this race and Justforjames has scored four of his five UK wins round here since coming from Ireland. Biggest plus however is that whilst I was writing, William Hill adjusted the 12/1 they were offering to 11/2. I was scribbling furiously honest because that looked very long to me but I suspect it was gobbled by the stable and connection hawks who watch for first show knowing what they already know about the horse’s current wellbeing.

Price with William Hill is gone but might stay long elsewhere for a while and you have a job to get best price you can between now and race off time. Those negatives may still mean value and top weight of 12-5 is an ask but I’m quite keen on the play especially with a double lay to fund things and a decent LIM cover.


0.2pt LAY on BORIC (around 3.5 : no greater than 3.8)

0.15pt LAY on AGAMEMMON (around 2.9 or shorter : no greater than 3.2)

0.1pt BACK on JUSTFORJAMES (best price you can. Aim for 6.5 or better)

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 206/310 = 66.45% :   BACKS: 55/207 = 26.57%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:   +0.245 (+0.245) Lay @ 2.5 

2nd:  -0.36   (-0.115) Lay @ 2.44

3rd:   +0.096 (-0.019) Lay @ 3.1 : Back @ 9.0


5th:   +0.144 (+0.125) Lay @ 2.0 : Backs @ 4.5 & 21.0



La Bague au Roi – Entered for Huntingdon (Dec 8) + the King George & The Gold Cup!

Unwin VC 


Tea Clipper – Entered for Huntingdon ( Dec 8)

Nube Negra – Entered for Sandown (Dec 7)

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Verdana Blue – Entered for Champion Hurdle

Maire Banrigh – Entered for Sandown (Dec 7)


Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill 


Indian Opera

Lady Bowes 


Vinndication –Entered for King George & Gold Cup!

Lostintranslation – Entered for King George,Ryanair & Gold Cup

Cat Tiger – Entered for Chepstow (Dec 7)

Welsh Saint – Entered for Chepstow (Dec 7)

Normandy Soldier

Ribble Valley 

Kid Commando 

Up The Straight 

Flaming Charmer 


Soaring Glory


3-05 LEICESTER – WENCESLAUS @ 5/2 – 0.1pt BACK

(Backed @ 4.3 : Hedged @ 2.84 & 1.7 ) = P/L +0.203points


(Backed @ 85.0 : Hedged 0.15pt @ 38.0) = P/L + 0.049points)

Both horses ran sterling races. Flaming Charmer completely unfancied by the market would have been a monster winner and he ran well for a long way again up front which made him an ideal trade horse. Blew up again however so he goes off the to follow list now as the win – not expected today obviously – looks less likely now. Might be worth keeping on your list of horses to trade in future however as that combination of front running and monster prices is a potent one.

Wenceslaus ran much better than I expected and showed real guts and tenacity to pull  off the win. I could see he was always travelling well but couldn’t resist the hedge in play (having done a small one before the off)given that I thought his mark would stop him. So didn’t maximise profit. Tempted to keep him on the list as well as he does seem to be still improving and could perhaps defy his mark again.


2-25 SANDOWN – UP THE STRAIGHT @ 8/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Arguably a watching brief as Up The Straight is hiked right up in class and this is obviously just a sighter to see whether the trouncing of Cat Tiger in heavy ground was a fluke or not. Looked superb and ground might be testing again tomorrow so I want to be on but staying modest and usual take best odds you can get and hedge when offered anything preferential.


PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works (at least a month to six weeks)  although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitability generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email ( TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!



 Good Luck with your bets.


The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *