BOZmail – 6th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY AUGUST 6th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 55.451 points after month 8 (+35.451 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +8.3313 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +4.7952 points

Been asked more than once now why I don’t keep this stat on the sheet. Thought

our personal scores could be so widely different for it to be not that relevant when 

I have also not been putting up recommended stakes either on many. A personal

choice thing I tend to think. But enough have asked so I’ve gone back through and

the above is my modest score from January 1st onwards. Will keep updated from

hereon in and I know it makes those scoring better than me feel good! I continue

to channel most of my energy into getting LIM prices and plays as right as I can. 

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY

7-20 RIPON

I spent much of Monday listening to experts and pundits telling me Ironclad would improve for the step up to 1m 4f and kept wondering whether I hadn’t ought to increase my stake seeing as his price duly plummeted. I didn’t in the end but sure enough he either didn’t stay or disliked the all weather and it was quite a competitive affair. The gamble finished 3rd. My highlighted two 1st and 2nd and Ironclad 4th. At least it boosts my confidence for Tuesday where I have two races of equalish strength to go at. Keeping the strongest for starting the next staggered acca below on the expectation that the Caustic Love price will be about 2/1 at which I am happy to lay.

All three opponents have a strong chance against him with the form of Sandret’s LTO looking particularly tasty. Both he and Caustic Love have a slight breeding question mark about the step up to a mile but of the two, I like Sandret’s credentials more and the Ben Haslam yard has a strong in running form % to encourage me. That said, the race might be fought out by the top two if Divinity returns to Ripon form under leniency from the handicapper after being placed in classy races last three. This represents a dropped return to his class. He and Oasis Prince have weight to give but Divinity’s course and distance form would sway me to the back if pressed but I’m saving my back for the marginally stronger of the two LIMs which I’m using to start the staggered acca. This will be just a lay on Caustic Love if the tissue is accurate and he comes out at around 2/1. If that should prove wildly inaccurate, simply abandon this race and the idea of starting another staggered acca and simply substitute the stronger LIM into here.

Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on CAUSTIC LOVE (around 3.0  : no greater than 3.8)

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This month plays so far:

1st:       +1.244(+1.244) Lay @ 1.85 : Back @ 4.8

2nd:      -0.5465(+0.6975) Lay @ 1.99 : Back @ 3.3

3rd:       -0.024 (+0.6735) Lays @2.08 & 2.08 : Back @ 11.5

4th:       +0.045(+0.7185) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 11.0

5th:       +0.196(+0.9145) Lay @ 2.08

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 140/207 = 67.63% :   BACKS: 42/142 = 29.57%

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer 

Caius Marcius

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Dee Ex Bee 

Sir Dragonet – Entered for Lepoardstown (Aug 8)& Curragh (Aug 16) & York(Aug 21) 

Raise You

Ocean Paradise 

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered in the Juddmonte (Aug 21)

Pour Me A Drink 

Gold Stick 

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in the Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered for the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.00 points.

Staggered acca number 15: (LEG 1)

4-40 CATTERICK – LAY ROCHESTER HOUSE – 0.5pt @ 4/6

                                 BACK PIEDITA – 0.1pt @ 9/2

Quite sweet on this LIM play. The Resdev Way and Yabass provide decent LIM cover to beat Rochester House who won well LTO over the distance but doesn’t hold strong figures to do so again against these under his penalty and is very short in the betting. On top of that, the canny Prescott yard look to be plotting a same course as last two years for Piedita who has had his warm up race in better class and is dropped now to where he should be for a yard still flying. A time of year horse. Not the greatest fan of Luke Morris but no arguing with his stats nor how he rides for this yard. Just wish he didn’t do the windmill impersonation quite so often! Is strong however if needs be and got a strong feeling about this to lay us up nicely for the imminent footy acca which starts on Saturday. But shift this to standard LIM play should the tissue on Caustic Love prove out. 

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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