BOZmail 6th AUGUST

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THURSDAY AUGUST 6th  2020 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 21.4226 points (+1.4226 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 14.6153 points (+6.6153 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.705 points (-0.295 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.23 points)

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BOZmail 2020 cycle PART ONE(1/2 – 31/5) overall profit  = +4.2876 points

                                      PART TWO(1/6 – 31/1 )  overall profit = +7.0439 points

                                          BOZmail 2020 overall score = +11.3315 points

PART ONE LIM 2020 Strike Rates: Lays: 25/41 = 60.97%  Backs: 9/29 = 31.03%

PART TWO LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 37/47 = 78.72%  Backs : 5/20 = 25%

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LESS IS MORE:

BOZmail Rule number six maintains its claim that The Boz’s unofficial tips are his best tips! Brentford fail to get promoted. Bit sweaty palms as it went to the wire and Fulham scored twice in extra time at Wembley. Well done those that followed it in. First football bet of the year. 100% record! Bring on the tennis!

7-50 STRATFORD

Wednesday’s Recommendation:

0.2pt LAY on PETERBOROUGH (around 2.3 and as low as you can get)

Laid @ 2.38 : Hedged 0.12pt @ 4.0 : P/L = +0.0823points

0.05pt BACK on NO NO CARDINAL (around 15.0)

Backed @ 19.0 : Hedged 0.06pts @ 14.0 : P/L = 0.0098pts 

0.025pt BACK on CHANCE IT (around 8.0) – LOST

TOTAL TRADE P/L on the day = +0.0671points

As if we don’t have enough to deal with! But the changing of the weather and going is a more normal UK hazard and I hope you took the heed and turned the LIM into a trade when you saw it bucketing it down at Newton Abbot. I was actually already hedged because I’d seen the weather forecast and I couldn’t resist the trade out on Peterborough when he drifted to as far as 4.0. Think I’d have been hedging anyway. I came off the bet on No No Cardinal too but left Chance it until the day and tried to hedge after Jonjo confirmed that the rain had got into the ground (course had also been watered) after Pagero’s win. Always trust a jockey’s assessment of the going. You probably heard Luke Harvey telling us prior to that no change in the ground was likely. He feigned surprise when he heard Jonjo say it was getting soft! TV Pundits. Beware!!

I couldn’t get off Chance it but didn’t try too hard as I’d greened out and by the time of the race, I fancied Peterborough. It was part of a 7/7 winners for the shortlist on the day although they were all favs. Market still very much on top of things hence why we protect ourselves still at the minute. Yesterday’s win on Malangen was first signs that we are getting a chance again but it is far from universal yet. And I was unable to back up that win in traditional LIM style as I fancied I might well be. No doubt in my mind for a while now that we are wise to arm with the trade option when needed at the moment. Could well be for the rest of 2020. Certainly as long as the racing stays in its artificial mode.

Part of the problem I’m still having is the lack of choice. Normally at this time of year, I’d be looking at ten races or so and finding the best LIM. Bath tomorrow does offer several qualifiers but UFN, the flat remains off limits to me. My race reads are just not cutting it. Just one NH meeting again and the only other qualifying race to the one I’m doing is the bumper. That is on the sheet because a to follow horse runs in it and is short priced fav (see below). Should win.

Leaving just one race again but I am getting the Be More Creative message and I couldn’t take on the fav in this as he is on the Soldier of Love formline and that got a massive boost again at Newton Abbot. 15/8 strikes me as a back price for Monty’s Award but I do actually fancy the second fav to beat him. Oscar Rose ran a fabulous race in a Novice Chase behind Leoncavallo in very quick time here and a repeat of that could seriously test the fav. Is a Novice and up into Handicap company here but jumped well for most part LTO (slight peck at the last) and could also offer some value price as a solo back LIM race – given that I do fear Montys Award if it does come down to jumping. So no lay on that.

Just a different way to play LIM in what continue to be very challenging times.

Recommendation:

0.1pt BACK on OSCAR ROSE (around 3.0. Get the best price that you can)

LIM scores for August:

1st :  NO BET

2nd : +0.0886  (+0.0886) Lay @ 1.93 : Back @ 7.0

3rd:   +0.0245  (+0.1131) Lay @ 3.75

4th:   +0.385    (+0.4981) Lays @ 3.75 & 3.3 :Backs @ 15.0 & 3.75

5th:   +0.0671 (+0.5652) Lay @ 2.38 & 14.0 : Backs @ 19.0 & 4.0

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker – Entered for York ( Aug 20)

Malotru 

Ransom

Uncle Jumbo – Entered for York (Aug 20) & Doncaster (Sep 10)

On My Way 

Battleground – Entered for  Curragh (Aug 22&Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 8)

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat – Entered at Uttoxeter (Aug 8)

Beholden 

Lord Condi 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo – Entered at Southwell (Aug 10)

Pisgah Pike

El Presente

Hiconic

Young Wolf

Sirobbie

Little Jessture

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Global Tour

Samsons Reach

Leoncavallo

OCCASIONAL ACCA ON WEDNESDAY’S TO FOLLOW HORSES

1-45 NEWTON ABBOT – HICONIC @ 11/10 – 1st

3-50 NEWTON ABBOT – SOLDIER OF LOVE @ 1/1 – 1st

0.1pt WIN DOUBLE – WON – P/L = +0.32pts

Soldier of Love is a classy recruit for the Nicholls yard. Got speed. And jumped this much better. Hiconic just carries on and some welcome repair work to the occasional acca bank.

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE on THURSDAY:

8-20 STRATFORD – BEHOLDEN

0.15pt WIN SINGLE

Not worth trading at the price and a reasonably confident pick as bumper bets go. Surprisingly beaten LTO but jumped the path on the run in and the conqueror could be a good one and is also now on our list… and prevented the double penalty! This looks an easier heat but no massive stake as bumper’s often contain dark horses.

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  (+2.7744points)

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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