BOZmail – 6th APRIL

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SATURDAY APRIL 6th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stands at 36.0395 points after month 4

LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY

5-45 LINGFIELD

You’ll see now why I invented the LIM way to play. Waiting Patiently is a horse I would have backed off the boards in olden days. Had my heart broken too many times!

Better at working out which won’t win and they pay the way and cover the losers!

Poor old WP has been on my to follow list for years but off it now after that. Jumped so poorly again that I think the King George spill must have affected his confidence.

Doesn’t seem to be enjoying it any more. Sad for a horse of such promise and almost seems to have suffered from lack of racing. Not really my place to say that but racehorses can forget what is required as they grow older. And grow old he has without ever really winning a big one. Lostintranslation looks the one to follow in that sense now. Revelled in the step up in trip and looks a player for next year’s Gold Cup.

The big one tomorrow. Grand National not a punting race for me but I’ll be cheering for local hero Just A Par who will lift the roof off if he wins. Bagged Aiden Coleman to ride which is a bonus. He went to Sedge on Friday to ride one out of the limelight. That kind of jockey. Will get on well with Jimmy. Don’t ever remember him being booked by the stable before. Valtor still my dark horse and several others I’ll be happy to see win – Rathvinden and Magic of Light both have a squeak. Who do I think will win? Well, I won’t be laying Tiger Roll!

As the eyes of the world turn that way, I go instead for a little novice at Lingfield just after where a Gosden horse looks worth an oppose  as he steps up in trip. Not flagged up by breeding and looks more a desperate ploy to find a trip for the frustrating Damon Runyon. I expect Mackaar to have far more class.

Recommendation:

0.35pt LAY on DAMON RUNYON (around 2.2 : not greater than 3.0)

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This month plays so far:

1st: NON RUNNER  

2nd:   +0.355 (+0.355) LAY @ 1.9 : BACK @ 2.6

3rd:     -0.6 (- 0.245) LAY @  2.5 : BACK @ 10.0

4th:     +0.24 (- 0.005) LAY @  3.8

5th:     +0.044(+0.039) LAY @ 3.5 : BACK @ 3.5

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 78/110 = 70.90% :   BACKS: 18/71 = 25.35%

NH HORSES OF INTEREST TO TRADE NEXT TIME OUT:

Uno Valoroso

Southfield Vic

Tokaramore

Tiffin Top

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.0 points.

Staggered acca number 8: (LEG 1)

The Curse on Staggered Accas continues and a second first leg fail which I could have done without. No excuses this time mind. Kalashnikov improved for the step up in distance and La Bague Au Roi probably needed the 3 miles against him although the suspicion that the edge off the Greatrex stable had its say. To be fair to him though Kalashnikov jumped better than I expected and the slight peck by La Bague two out swang it. She tried to come back though. No complaints there. Just got to accept another weapons grade that failed. The race continues to be a long one. No panic yet. Got the Bowl right for LIM compensation. Clan Des Obeaux also ran a better than expected though. Beat Bristol de Mai. That kind of day.

Will shout as soon as the next staggered acca starter emerges.    

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(that’s my job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been my mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year I pack in.

I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.

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