BOZmail – 5th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

THE BOZmail @ Flushing Meadow

For the US OPEN WOMEN’S TENNIS

DAY ELEVEN:

THURSDAY SEPTEMBER 5th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.0715 points after month 9 (+37.0715 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +10.8867 points

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LESS IS MORE: THURSDAY PLAY

4-30 SEDGEFIELD

Regulars will know of my predisposition to a bit of amateur horse whispering and I spent some time yesterday having my first conversation in donkey’ s years with an actual donkey! That would be Otto the donkey who is a neighbour where I’m staying here in Ireland and amongst the carrot munching we discussed the card at Uttoxeter and he put me on to getting Finalshot beat. He actually also reminded me of the wisdom of opposing favourites in September and backing rank outsiders (the trick as ever is in finding the right ones) and the importance of September as a form turnaround time. Do not believe all that you read (elsewhere!) in September and BOZmail rule number one is never more pertinent than it is in September.

After the success of Wednesday’s LIM (AND the rank outsider coming in as he suggested!!), I went down again to take him a congratulatory carrot today and say my farewells before setting back to Blighty tomorrow and in lilting German (Otto is a German donkey) he pointed me to tomorrow’s LIM race (“Dere is no race like a two horse race Gary”) as well as telling me about his living in the field next to the birthplace in County Tipperary of Ireland’s only ever winner of the Wimbledon’s women’s tennis title in 1890 – Lena Rice. A nice LIM story as there were only four entrants for the competition that year and the favourite Hildegard withdrew from the final due to pregnancy! Lena beat the stand in 64 62 and it all strikes me as portent potential as Serena moves in on her much desired record equalling slam win. I’m staying out of semi finals and hoping today brings Bencic & Andreescu to the other semi as both of those have a shout against Serena in the final for those still in the business of needing to hedge on the Williams sister. Her semi against Svitolina is not as straight forward as the 4-1 back score would suggest as Svitolina has recently improved her propensity to big point wobble and has her win over Serena as their most recent encounter. She might have been a bet for me at 6/4 but the way Serena dismissed Wang 61 60 does mean not one to risk. Miss Williams is looking mean. Keep those fingers on the buttons if you still need to hedge. You see now why I reluctantly cash out on her whenever I am offered it. She is and has always been tough to take on when the mojo is in blossom. Not over yet but I’m glad to be with rather than against at the moment. 

So I might get back involved in the semis but more likely I’m playing only in the final again now and maybe not even that.Thanks to Otto, I’m back on the horses!!

Off to that two horse race at Sedgefield where Doctor Newland runs a fav to oppose.

Dounyapour is second in on times,ratings and stable form and although I might these days prefer STD to Tom O’Brien in the strength in a finish stakes, there’s not that much between them overall and Toshima looks a good call to me on that stable in running form factor (83%) and the fact is that he comes out again after a 7 days course and distance win.Significant with the Newland horses less than impressive of late.

Recommendation:

0.5pt LAY on DOUNYAPOUR (around 1.8 : no greater than 2.1)

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This month plays so far:

1st:    -0.24 (-0.24)  Lay @ 1.4 : Back @ 34.0  

2nd:   -0.25 (-0.49)  Back @ 2.2

3rd:    NO PLAY DAY 

4th:    +0.49 (+0.0) Lay @ 1.9      

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 154/231 = 66.66% :   BACKS: 44/157 = 28.02%

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10 points.

THE FINAL 2019 Staggered  Acca number 18: 

So the final acca repaired damage only. I’ll take time out now to consider the next step and keep you all informed of decisions as they are made.

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US OPEN PORTFOLIO:

SERENA                                                   Current P/L = +0.6 points

REST OF THE FIELD                                                    = 0 points  

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer -Entered for Musselburgh (Sep 6) & Perth (Sep 9)

Caius Marcius 

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Eightsome Reel 

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Maydanny

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Light Up Our Stars 

Waldpfad – Entered in Haydock Sprint Cup (Sep 7) 

Miss Celestial – Entered at York (Sep 8) & Curragh (Sep 28)

Deirdre – Entered for Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown (Sep 14)&Ascot(Oct 19)

Piedita 

James Watt – Entered for Ayr Gold Cup (Sep 21)

Lord of the Lodge 

Mum’s Tipple – Entered for Doncaster (Sep 12) & (Sep 14)-Newbury (Sep 21)

Lady Mascara

TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSES on THURSDAY:

4-40 SALISBURY – Light Up Our Stars @10/3

6-50 LINGFIELD – Lady Mascara @ 11/4

Usual Back at best price you can get before the off and hedge in running. Neither massive win fancies but good runs expected. Latter is the dump at the start candidate so watch out for that. Very competitive race she’s in and well up in class so keeping starting stake to minimum (0.1pt) there.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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