BOZmail 5th SEPTEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet & 

THE BOZmail at the Socially distanced US Open!

SATURDAY SEPTEMBER 5th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +14.14 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 24.598 points (+4.598 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 18.5765 points (+10.5765 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 5.1145 points (+0.1145 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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US OPEN report DAY FOUR:

Stephens took my banker score to 6/6 which was encouraging. See if I can’t keep that up! Only other day four development (apart from the shock exits of Konta and Sabalenka) is that Swiatek dangles in an unfinished match v Vickery. Chucked away the first set in a bizarre tiebreak (led 5-0 then lost seven points on the bounce) but it was a yoyo first set with two breaks each and Swiatek took a break lead meaning her outright price dropped to 60.0 and The BOZ snaffled his hedge! Only want to be free bet on her for now. Can always back again if the draw does open up for her and she looks like she may go all the way this time.That wobble in the tiebreak doesn’t bode well however as her immaturity showed again. The market still has her fav to pull through v Vickery! I’d be less sure!

THIRD ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE TOP HALF OF THE DRAW – FRIDAY:

Banker : Yulia Putintseva to beat Aliksandra Sasnovich @ 1.86 – 0.1pt BACK

Value : Madison Brengle to beat Shelby Rogers @ 2.92 – 0.05pt BACK

Outsider : Magda Linette to beat Anett Kontaveit @ 5.0 – 0.05pt BACK

2 x 0.01pt doubles – Putinseva with each of the other two.

Total Match Bet spend = 0.22pts

3rd ROUND MATCH BETS FROM THE BOTTOM HALF OF THE DRAW- SATURDAY:

Banker Treble: Madison Keys to beat Alize Cornet @ 1.3

                           Sofia Kenin to beat Ons Jabeur @ 1.59

                           Serena Williams to beat Sloane Stephens @ 1.25   – 0.1pt STAKE

Value Bet:       Tsvetana Pironkova to beat Donna Vekic @ 2.72 -0.1pt STAKE

  • 0.05pt FOUR TIMER = Total spend of 0.25pts

I did think about this as just a four timer as Pironkova is in fact the biggest fancy. I flagged her up in my original preview as one in the category of deserving old timer who wins her slam at the last gasp attempt.32 years old now and a grass player ostensibly who has gone deep at Wimbledon and the US Open in her career. Comes here unranked having not played much past three years but that second round dump of Muguruza means she has brought her A game for one last throw of the dice!  She is one of my stable stars from over the betting years and I would love to see her do it. Not perhaps quite in the Pennetta category because of her ultimate preference for grass and I struggle to see her getting past Serena should the queen be at the top of her game. Likewise with Osaka perhaps but as we narrow to the final 32 now, things do happen in the draw. No gimmes any more and back form not quite so reliable as it is in the first two rounds.

All four of these have strong back form to make it potentially a strong four timer. But none are certs. Jabeur and Cornet are wily old warriors. Keys and Kenin could hit through but either only needs to be a notch below their best and the window of opportunity is likely to be snaffled. Jabeur is a master of the mix up and the mind game and she has been in fine form for a couple of years now. Likewise Serena on her A game has mastered Stephens in recent match ups but the younger pretender is a Slam champ now and still ultimately a possible to carry the crown on after Serena departs. The three American favs should all win but like I say, the one I fancy most of the four is Pironkova who has a historical 3-0 over Vekic and needs only to keep her nerve to exert her class there I’d say if she really has come with a mind to try and land the slam at last. Three years training for it out of the public eye? Mainly beefing up in the gym? It is what both Schiavone and Stosur did to finally land their slams. Pennetta likewise. So Pironkova goes into my portfolio in case. Just seen some footage of her with a dirty great extended serve arm bicep and shoulder extension too! She has also had a baby during her time off which I knew but had forgotten. Dunno what that implies good or bad! More pertinent is her first serve stat v Muguruza. 27 from 29 first serve points won. That is a high call for a woman not noted for her serve strength (was outdoing Muguruza by an average 5mph and Muguruza is a gigantic server). I shall roar her on past Vekic and leave the staking conservative as it is just in case I’m wrong and the market has it right!  

OUTRIGHT PORTFOLIO:

1pt LAY on NAOMI OSAKA @ 5.4     (-4.15)

0.5pt LAY on PETRA KVITOVA @ 12.0   (-4.75)

0.1pt BACK on SHELBY ROGERS @ 110.0  (+12.25)

0.1pt BACK on MADISON BRENGLE @ 200.0   (+21.25)

0.05pt BACK on IGA SWIATEK @ 70.0 – 0.05pt hedge taken @ 60.0    (+1.75)

0.05pt BACK on TSVETANA PIRONKOVA @ 100.0   (+6.25)

REST OF THE FIELD    (+1.25)

US OPEN TRADES: +0.115 points

US OPEN ACCAS: +0.5595 points

US OPEN TOURNAMENT SCORE AFTER ROUND TWO: +0.6745 points

SECOND ROUND BANKER ACCA:

Angelique Kerber to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam @ 1.3 – WON

Sloane Stephens to beat Olga Govortsova @ 1.7 – WON

Return P/L = +0.121points

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 75/106 = 70.75%  Backs : 18/61 = 29.5%

NO BET

No qualifiers in the one NH meeting at Stratford. I stay with profit protection and see what Fontwell throws up on Sunday.

There is a trade to follow qualifier at Stratford (see below).

LIM SCORES FOR SEPTEMBER:

1st:  +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 3.55

2nd: NO BET

3rd:  -0.345  (-0.149) Lay @ 3.3

4th: NO BET

5th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Leopardstown (Sep 12) &  Curragh (Sep13)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon 

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Check My Pulse 

Balagan 

Ashutor 

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Rubytwo 

Pisgah Pike 

Hiconic

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Little Jessture – Entered at Newton Abbot (Sep 8)

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Sporting Press

Samsons Reach 

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

NH TO FOLLOW HORSE RUNNING on FRIDAY:

5-00 SEDGEFIELD – LORD CONDI @9/2 -0.15pt BACK 

Backed @ 14.5 : Hedged 0.21pt @ 10.5 : P/L = +0.0588points

NH TO FOLLOW/TRADE HORSE RUNNING on SATURDAY:

4-10 STRATFORD – YOUNG WOLF @ 3/1 -0.25pt BACK

Get the best price you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds offered.

Do fancy this a bit in the same category as Oscar Rose. First time out in handicap so has to overcome the hurly burly of that.On balance, prefer the caution of the trade option whilst spotlight remains on the tennis. 

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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