BOZmail – 5th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

SATURDAY OCTOBER 5th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 57.666 points after month 9 (+37.666 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +12.5647 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +57.812 points

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LESS IS MORE: SATURDAY PLAY 

3-30 FONTWELL

Have ummed and arred a fair bit with Saturday’s LIM with three of the Fontwell races tempting me. Settled on the actual 6 horse qualifier in the end as the prices are most conducive to taking on the Sherwood fav Cervaro Mix who ran well and was impressive here on Chase debut  but has to give weight to all here and there are several close to him on times who should benefit from that weight allowance. Particularly Master Work and Salto Chisco although the shortlist (which does include Cervaro Mix in its selections) is also keen on Darebin and Railroad Junkie. So a competitive race in prospect and for that reason, it is lay the fav only day in view of the need still for October caution bank management wise.

Recommendation:

0.3pt LAY on CERVARO MIX (around 2.5 : no greater than 2.7)

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 166/255 = 65.09% :   BACKS: 48/172 = 27.90%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    -0.838 (-0.838) Lay @ 2.68 : Back @ 3.3

2nd:   -0.216 (-1.054) Lay @ 2.08

3rd:    +0.245(-0.809) Lay @ 1.66

4th:    +0.144(-0.665) Lay @ 2.6 : Back @ 12.0

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.41 points. 

Will shout as soon as third leg emerges.

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Commodore Barry

Kaizer – Entered for Kelso (Oct 6) 

Raya Time

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra

Ballymoy

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WINTER ALL WEATHER HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

The Grey Goat

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Raise You – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Roseman – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Waldpfad  – Entered for Ascot (Oct 19)

Miss Celestial 

Deirdre – Entered at Ascot(Oct 19)

HORSE TO FOLLOW/TRADE @ ASCOT on Saturday:

4-15 MISS CELESTIAL @ 10/1 – 0.1pt BACK

Not overly strong on it having seen the ground at Ascot on Friday and no clear indication whether it will suit. Simple back at best price and hedge at preferential odds when appropriate for a free bet. Minimum starting stake. Very much after the Lords Mayor show for me now with UK flat racing. Emphasis shifts to the all weather.

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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