BOZmail 5th OCTOBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet &

Daily coverage of The 2020 French Open Women’s Tennis tournament @ ROLAND GARROS (Live on ITV 4)

MONDAY OCTOBER 5th  2020 

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +29.3614 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 25.7701 points (+5.9171 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 32.6298 points (+24.6298 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.9635 points (-0.0365 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 85/119 = 71.42%  Backs : 22/72 = 30.55%

NO BET

Well that was hard work on Sunday having to take a much bigger lay price than expected and it proving a pretty uncompetitive two horse race which the weight just decided in our favour. Plantagenet never quite out of it so a few sweats and a sense that this first week of October is not the positive I was expecting for LIM. The large fields and no NH racing at all on Tuesday still pretty unusual. No official LIM qualifier at Stratford. I have looked at the only close contender which is the juvenile hurdle at 12-15 with an odds on favourite in it. But looks to me like it might win and with the tennis the way it is and Custard the Dragon down to run at Southwell on the all weather on Tuesday, I think I’ll play patient with LIM again – champing at the bit though I am to give it some welly there now after all we have endured this year. Patience ever the wisdom and the virtue. 

LIM SCORES FOR OCTOBER:

1st: NO BET

2nd: +0.196  (+0.196) Lay @ 4.1

3rd:  -0.18     (+0.016) Lay @ 2.2

4th:  +0.147  (+0.163) Lay @ 4.4

5th: NO BET

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FRENCH OPEN TENNIS PREVIEW: (DAY NINE)

Whatever else you do in life, you can say you were there and you were on – the day women’s tennis changed! Hitting a backhand as strong and as fast as Dominic Thiem in the men’s game, Iga Swiatek tore apart the number one seed. And tore apart is being polite! A scintillating display of tennis skill and power from a 19 year old. Only May 2019, just 18 months ago, when I saw her in the flesh in Edgbaston (and got her autograph – that might be worth a few bob now) beating Bernada Pera as the raw teenage talent who lost 6-0 6-1 to Ostapenko next round. Talk about duckling into swan in just eighteen months. I noticed her hands in Birmingham. Big hands. Bigger hands than you’d expect in relation to body. I thought at the time that she reminded me of when I got up close and personal with Pat Eddery at Haydock in the nineteen eighties. When I first starting seeing behind the scenes of horse racing and marvelling at how enormous Eddery’s hands seemed in relation to his diminutive frame.

The mark of sporting greatness. Swiatek has had mind issues to grow through in the past eighteen months I’ve been following her and threw away a won game in the last 16 in Melbourne (January of this year which already seems like centuries ago) against Annet Kontaveit. The transformation in her game since then is immense. She was Wimbledon Junior Champion in 2017 so she hasn’t come from nowhere but the move to the big hitting powerhouse she was against Halep has been achieved in just the last six months. Drop shotter too. Double kick smasher with both feet off the floor (a Halep trick) and a forehand low bend groundstroke to die for. Then that 78 mile an hour backhand. No woman ever had that. Game changer.

Of course she hasn’t won it yet and she now plays the equally extraordinary qualifier Martina Trevisan who bested the number five seed Kiki Bertens and we saw from Ostapenko yesterday that brilliant tennis one day can turn quickly to scratchy nerves the next. That’s women’s tennis. There is something about Swiatek however. It will be a surprise if she crumbles from here. Number one seeds do get beat but rarely do they get beat 6-1 6-2. Halep did not play badly either. Started scrapping second set and a couple of long juice games in which Halep used all her guile. Swiatek stood tall throughout. There is a touch of Steffi Graf about the way she stands. Add that to a super fit and quick mind and a forehand and backhand to die for. Her mind seems to have matured out of that cocky teenager we saw last year that went into stress mode against the top players. And that may have happened just since The US Open where she lost to Azarenka. This was a game apart from that. Exceeded even my expectations which were high. I missed the 150/1 on her before the tournament began though. I may well rue that. But nothing quite like seeing seriously top drawer sports stars emerge from the youth ranks. Puts a nice positive spin back on the world. Just what we need. That and the cleansing of the US Presidency which may also be in the wings. Things is looking up!

Not long before they drop again however as the hope for Caroline Garcia to overcome her demons was unfounded. Managed a further 0.05pt hedge at 21.0 as she rallied briefly second set against Svitolina but the first set was disappointing for someone with a 3-1 back score plus and I had hoped for much more. She struggled with her serve in the wind and the French authorities may have been well advised to keep the roof closed as Swiatek had no such trouble! Hey ho.

The portfolio position takes a hit with that scoeline. I’d planned sacrificing some of the Garcia profits to boost the Swiatek position but a different approach needed now and further study of the draw and results predictions required to try and boost Swiatek profits via the sacrifice of another outsider perhaps. See what happens in the top half fourth round matches tomorrow first off. The retention of number three seed Svitolina in the draw is also a negative for Swiatek’s chance although the way she played v Halep suggests she could beat anyone if the consistency holds up. She is a remarkable fav in the Betfair market now with three games to go. Down from 150/1!

What a missed opp that might prove although I would have hedged some of that by now. Even so!

What of day nine? Well there are some match bets to consider if you are inclined. After Tig’s departure I have been trying to work out my top half of the draw winner. Muguruza fell as I predicted she might leaving Kenin and Kvitova as the big guns. Both should win on Monday although Ferro is another young dark horse for the street fighter Kenin to overcome. I suspect Sofia might handle the partisan French crowd better than Tig did. We shall see. The Jabeur v Collins match is a serious teaser and the whole draw now poised for a sensational set of outsiders in the final 8. The BOZ is busy doing a back sweep. The portfolio is poised for a decent return now so I’m on the case of finding the best way to optimise the profit. Watch this space! My eye is drawn to Ostapenko’s conqueror Paula Badosa. She is another fascinating dark horse in an amazing French Open. Proving every bit as sparkling as it promised.  

DAY NINE FOURTH ROUND MATCH TRADES:

0.1pt BACK SHUAI ZHANG to beat Petra Kvitova @ 4.1

0.1pt BACK PAULA BADOSA to beat Laura Siegemund @ 2.24

I might be expecting Kvitova to win here but I’d say it is a closer match up than prices suggest so there is trading potential. Neither is overly clay court inclined although Kvitova has been improving on it in recent years and still does have the big game and big boom forehand to play through players on it. Coupled with insecurity in having to get down so low for groundstrokes which doesn’t suit her. Could serve dominate but I expect the feisty experience of Zhang to create some long groundstroke rallies in the match to test Kvitova’s patience and stamina. The back score is also only 3-2 to Kvitova and some yoyoing looks imminently possible. If Kvitova does win, I think she is then fav to make final in the top half of the draw. I am looking however for players to get her beat for my portfolio position and Ferro,Jabeur,Collins plus Badosa and Siegemund are all possibles in this topsy turvy tourney.

Siegemund is an out and out clay courter as is the surprising Spaniard Badosa who has sneaked unnoticed into the last 16 and could go further. She got under Ostapenko. Harder to do that with Siegmund but she is the value starting point to trade this match. I won’t be looking for massive return here and will green out and be satisfied with a small plus if and as and when it arrives. There is plenty of unpredictable about the French Open still. Fascinating stuff.

Outrights Portfolio:

0.1pt BACK Patricia MariaTig@ 450.0 Hedged 0.1pt @250.0 & 0.1pt@80.0  Eliminated

0.05pt BACK Caroline Garcia @ 80.0  Hedged 0.05pt@40.0 & 0.05@21.0 Eliminated 

0.05pt BACK Iga Swiatek @ 24.0  (+1.325)

0.05pt BACK Amanda Anisimova @ 40.0  Hedged 0.05pt @ 32.0 – Eliminated

0.3pt LAY on Simona Halep @ 3.2 Hedged 0.275pt @ 4.2 -Eliminated

REST OF THE FIELD (+0.0125)

Remember that in the portfolio as in all trading, the advice is get the best price that you can and hedge as appropriate and when preferential odds are offered. That applies to all portfolio betting remembering that outright markets stay live whilst matches are on and huge swings in price occur. That is how Osaka became a winner for the portfolio at the US. And no middle of the night vigilance required this time!

FRENCH OPEN ACCAS =   -0.4pts

FRENCH OPEN TRADES = +1.2141pts

FRENCH OPEN OUTRIGHTS PORTFOLIO = 

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BOZmail 2020 – Horses to follow on the flat:

Muker 

Ransom

Battleground – Entered for Newmarket (Oct 10)

Royal Air Force – Entered in the 2021 Derby (June 5)

Alicestar

Custard The Dragon – Entered @ Southwell (Oct 6)

Plainchant(FR)

Aramhes(FR)

BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Sangha River 

Captain Tom Cat 

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike 

Young Wolf 

Sirobbie 

Soldier of Love 

Lady Bowes(soft) 

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo – Entered in the Cesarewitch (Oct 10)

Longhouse Sale 

Oscar Rose 

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Caius Marcius 

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Leapaway  

Return Ticket(flat track) – Entered @ Sedgefield (Oct 7)

Redford Road

Not That Fuisse(good/good to soft)

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW/TRADE on SUNDAY:

3-30 KELSO – RETURN TICKET @ 10/1 – 0.2pt BACK – NON RUNNER

3-16 UTTOXETER – SIROBBIE @ 6/1 – 0.2pt BACK – WON

Backed @ 11.5 : Hedged 0.1pt @ 8.6 & 1pt @1.07 in play : P/L = +1.2446pts

One of those I should have been backing not trading which cost me just under £100 in lost winnings but no regrets and something you have to accept as a trader. It levels out in the long run with the monies I’ve banked when the backed horse has failed to win. And I got this half right by keeping half of the hedge for the in play run once I’d clicked into what a good record the horse has at Uttoxeter. His fifth win here. Always travelling like a winner to me although I showed my trader instincts again as Harry Skelton came with his threat before the last. Looked like he might go past and I sacrificed a further £7 of winnings taking a point at 1.07. It wasn’t necessary as it turned out but I’m proud of it anyways. Would have been banking just under £100 if he had got beat and that’s the game. Excellent return whatever the result. Pretty certain in my mind these days that it beats gambling. And still feel it does have some gambling and fulfillment of the gambling urge in it. Just mainly increases your strike rate and greatly reduces losers. Always said my main thing was trying to avoid losers. Pretty sure this is the way!

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March      : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April         : – 0.1733 points

May          : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June         : + 0.0428 points

July          : + 0.8046 points  

August    :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz 

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