BOZmail – 5th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet. 

TUESDAY NOVEMBER 5th  2019 

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stands at 60.481 points after month 11 (+40.481 points profit)

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2019 BOZMAIL TENNIS WINNINGS:

Current Total      = +7.5813 points

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THE BOZ’s 2019 TO FOLLOW & TENNIS TRADES P/L:

Current Total      = +13.1357 points

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BOZMAIL 2019 COMBINED PROFIT TOTAL = +61.198 points

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LESS IS MORE: TUESDAY PLAY 

2-40 EXETER

Haldon Cup day is a favourite day of the year dating back to it being the first time I clocked eyes on Best Mate. This year’s renewal looks a cracker but although an LIM qualifier, a wide open affair where I fancy five of the six runners! Would be great to see God’s own win it a third time but Lalor and Charbel also favoured horses of mine so not my betting race. 

For that I attack the following novices chase that sees the long awaited return to the fray of to follow horse Commodore Barry who featured in that very taking race at Ayr in the summer LTO in which he fought a ding dong finish with Jim Goldie’s Get Out The Gate which the latter just squeaked courtesy of a slight jumping peck on Chase debut by Kim Bailey’s exciting potential horse who returns again here against two proven sorts carrying penalty in Tom George’s Boyhood and Colin Tizzard’s Paddleyourowncanoe. Quite close on times between the three with Commodore Barry just squeaking it and receiving 5lb as well and with decent hurdling form behind him, he gets the vote as the potential improver and value at the prices. I pay for the bet (staying small at this point in the month) with a lay on Boyhood who I agree with the likely market is second fav behind the Tizzard horse. Good LIM cover also in the two rags neither of whom is an impossible winner. Bradstock’s point recruits under Nico have to be respected as dark horses always and likewise Virginia Chick has a dark horse profile if reproducing old form and perhaps in the presence of less than impressive jumping from Commodore and the two favs.

Will be interesting to see how Commodore Barry shapes up. I had that Ayr race in the summer as a first sighting of future Gold Cup possibles which seemed vindicated when Get Out The Gate followed it up with an easy win at Perth. His handicap debut was less spectacular but still encouraging.His subsequent two runs up in class count as wheels coming off races. I saw him in the flesh at Cartmel when the Goldie stable were out of kilter and his saddle slipped and he ran poorly which was disappointing but not half as disappointing as his subsequent run where he looked out of love with the game. Goldie stable has been out of kilter for a while which may explain it but also possible that I overrated that initial Ayr race. How Commodore Barry runs at Exeter should tell us more and if he runs well, Get Out The Gate may yet get more support as a sleeper now who the markets will be discarding! Keep eyes peeled!

Interesting to trade horse also running at Exeter Tuesday. See Below. Plus a published plan for the BOZmail 2020 as promised.

Recommendation: 

0.2pt LAY on BOYHOOD (around 4.0 : no greater than 4.4)

0.1pt BACK on COMMODORE BARRY

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BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 185/281 = 65.83% :   BACKS: 52/189 = 27.51%

This month’s scores so far:

1st:    +0.343 (+0.343) Lay @ 2.6

2nd:   +0.245 (+0.588) Lay @ 2.62

3rd:    +0.098 (+0.656) Lay @ 4.2

4th:    NO PLAY DAY

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 9.75 points. 

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WINTER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

Al Dancer

La Bague au Roi 

Unwin VC 

Commodore Barry 

Kaizer 

Tea Clipper

Nube Negra 

Black Op – Entered for Stayers Hurdle (Mar 12)

Ballymoy

Verdana Blue

Maire Banrigh

Wenceslaus 

Tokaramore 

Flic Ou Voyou 

Thyme Hill

Nordano 

Indian Opera

Lady Bowes

Floressa – Entered for Newbury (Nov 7)

Vinndication

Lostintranslation

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HORSE TO TRADE/FOLLOW on TUESDAY:

1-10 UNWIN VC – 0.5pt BACK @ 2/1 or better

Price on this one very unclear as I write as I’ve seen 2/1 and 7/1! Well in on ratings and very much a long term to follow horse of mine from its bumper days. Like the trainer and a good honest horse. Up in class and on seasonal debut so I’m in the trading camp at as a good a price as I can get to hedge back in running or when offered before the race.If there is strong market money for it and paddock watch encourages however I may let the bet ride. It has on paper potential. Very much a bet what you see advice.

PLANS for the 2020 BOZmail:

The main development for next year is an annual subscription service only which will become available for purchase from December 1st 2019 and will be limited to first 150 purchasers. Membership will be closed when that number is reached or on January 31st 2020. Activity will begin on 1st February 2020.

The 2020 service will not be covering horseracing during January 2020 nor September 2020 as statistics have shown these to be negative months for LIM.

The 2020 BOZmail cycle will thus be a 10 month cycle completing on December 31st 2020.

The reason for annual subscription membership only is so that all members will be at same bank management level throughout. This enables The Boz to practice greater profit reinvestment in his staking levels (thus increasing overall profitability). Something that has not been possible in the 2019 cycle where new members were joining all the time and members were thus at varying bank levels throughout – leading The Boz to be more cautious in his staking levels than was ideal.

Membership of the 2020 BOZmail is recommended for those with some experience of how the service works although new members will be admitted up to the subscription closing date on January 31st 2020 if places are still available. First chance to purchase subscription however will be made to current members only. The service will only be advertised to non members after December 31st 2019 if some places are still available. The capping of numbers for the service is hopefully self explanatory to those who have experience of the service.

There will be some changes to content although the main focus will remain on the daily LIM service and the to follow trading advices in UK horse racing. Tennis coverage of the women’s Grand Slams will be limited to Wimbledon and the French Open only in 2020. There will be ad hoc accumulator advices throughout the cycle as they arise. The staggered acca approach practised in 2019 however will be discontinued. Simply hasn’t been as successful as hoped.

Never afraid to cull its dead wood is the BOZmail!

There are plans to introduce a paddock watching element to the service and to organise various days at the races during the year for those interested in advancing paddock watching skills and using these as an enhancement to their punting profitabilty generally. Details of these days will be available to BOZmail annual subscriber members only and will come at no extra charge (other than responsibility for paying own course entrance fee). The Boz is also publishing a guide to UK paddock watching in 2020 and will thus be in attendance at all UK racecourses at some point during the year collecting material for the book.

If you have any questions or queries about 2020 BOZmail annual membership at this stage, please feel free to contact The BOZ direct as always via email (garyboswell@hotmail.com). TGH Trading will be in touch in the coming weeks with personal invites to all current members to purchase first chance 2020 membership detailing cost etc. Opening date for purchasing 2020 membership will be December 1st 2019. First come,first served. 

With thanks to all who have supported the service in 2019 and here’s to a highly profitable and enjoyable 2020!

Cheers

THE BOZ

 Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections). 

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz 

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