BOZmail 5th NOVEMBER

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2020 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet

THURSDAY NOVEMBER 5th  2020

BOZmail 2020 cycle : 2020 overall score = +43.3414 points

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 LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Currently stands at : 28.1061 points (+8.1061 points)

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TENNIS & TO FOLLOW HORSE BACK/TRADE STARTING BANK = 8 points

Currently stands at : 44.6358 points (+36.6358 points)

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OCCASIONAL ACCA STARTING BANK = 5 points

Currently stands at : 4.7485 points (-0.2515 points)

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SPECIAL ROYAL ASCOT fixed odds bets = (-0.554 points)

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Post Lockdown Litmus Test Bozbets = (+0.085 points)

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Local Track Factor Section = (-0.68 points)

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LESS IS MORE

LIM 2020 Strike rates: Lays 100/138 = 72.46%  Backs : 27/88 = 30.68%

1-02 MARKET RASEN

Cousin’s horse is a non-runner as suffered a training setback so that’s for another day. Like this mare’s chase though where My Old Gold would shade the odds on fav on paper albeit has the lay-off to overcome. Decent LIM cover though for Really Super who also has a chance on the book and holds Casablanca Mix on a line through Pink Eyed Pedro. That was a cobweb blowing race behind LTO for Casablanca Mix but even so, the collateral form allows for a fair whack and Really Super is undoubtedly the value on the race read. Henderson also sends Nico to Newbury for the other LIM qualifier and that doesn’t have an obvious chance which could be a tip but also suggests the fav is not red hot winner material.

I’m also interested to see Dan Skelton entering Simply Loveleh in a Listed contest. It’s a fair step up but Skelton isn’t known for wasting a run and I shared his assessment that LTO was too bad to be true whereas time before did show decent promise. At 50/1 and against an odds on, I’ll throw a couple of sheckels at her too. 

Recommendations: 

0.25pt LAY on CASABLANCA MIX (around 1.98)

0.1pt BACK on REALLY SUPER (around 11.0)

0.05pt BACK on SIMPLY LOVELEH (around 51.0)

LIM Scores for November:

1st: +0.049 (+0.049) Lay @ 3.45 : Back @ 8.8

2nd: NO BET

3rd: +0.1543 (+0.2033) Back @ 2.05

4th: NO BET

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BOZmail 2020 – NH Horses to follow (Part Two):

Wild Polly

Straw Fan Jack 

McFabulous

Flic Ou Voyou

Soaring Glory 

Israel Champ

Bravemansgame 

Sangha River

Captain Tom Cat

Saint Sam (FR)

Pisgah Pike – Entered @ Cheltenham (Nov 15)

Young Wolf

Sirobbie    

Soldier of Love (3m 2f)

Lady Bowes(soft)

Captain Zebo

Defi Sacre

Leoncavallo

Oscar Rose – Entered @ Kempton (Nov 9)

She’s a Rocca(heavy)

Charm Offensive

Timetoroe(heavy)

Baby Jane

Calum Gilhooly 

The Butcher Said

Mrs Hyde 

Return Ticket(flat track)

Redford Road 

Carroll’s Milan

Prettylittlething 

Boothill

Al Dancer – Entered@ Cheltenham (Nov 14)

Onemorefortheroad – Entered@ Wincanton (Nov 7)

Stormy Ireland

Eldorado Allen

For Pleasure

Fidelio Vallis (softish ground)

Enrichissant

Zamani 

Ucanaver

Ribble Valley

Shan Blue

Snow Leopardess

Marble Sands

NH HORSES TO FOLLOW @ NEWBURY on THURSDAY:

12-20 Zamani @ 11/1

12-55 Soaring Glory @ 5/6 

3-05 Redford Road @ 5/1

The simple single trade the three is a way to go but with Soaring Glory a short priced banker following the form boost of Braveman’sgame, I’m tempted to play the doubles and treble at small stake fixed odds with all three having winning possibilities. Taken from the occasional acca bank, I go 3 x 0.05pt doubles and a 0.05pt treble. Total stake = 0.2pts

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LIM Monthly Scores:

February: + 1.3496 points

March  : + 1.5866 points

UK RACING LOCKDOWN

April     : – 0.1733 points

May      : – 0.8359 points

UK RACING RESTARTED

June     : + 0.0428 points

July      : + 0.8046 points 

August :  +1.9726 points   (+4.747 points)

September : +1.0071 points (+5.7541 points)

October : + 2.1487 points (+7.9028 points)

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The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study and watching the markets develop also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill. Remember also that a lay price available at a significantly lower level than stated on the sheet offers opportunity to increase lay stake without increasing calculated safe lay liability. This can be a key profit optimising tool in the long term if your form study agrees with that published by The Boz.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management always in mind.”  Boz

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