BOZmail – 5th MAY

BETLESSWINMORE.co.uk – the 2019 home of the BOZmail

Welcome to the new BOZmail service including the daily LESS IS MORE bet.

SUNDAY MAY 5th 2019

LESS IS MORE RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 20 points

Stood at 26.0 points after month 1

Stood at 25.83 points after month 2

Stood at 27.28 points after month 3

Stood at 36.0395 points after month 4

Stands at 40.8925 points after month 5

LESS IS MORE: SUNDAY PLAY

2-05 HAMILTON

Just wrong again I’m afraid and this is the first time in the five months of this service that I’ve resorted to head in hands status! Could just see Manamite making his way to the front up the Hexham hill despite it not having looked likely and the market not wanting to know. Just goes to show. Horse racing can at times be a cruel game and it’s making a mug of me and LIM at the moment. Never panic however. Really has come to time now to muscle down and grind to get one right. And no more risk taking til the winner is in the bag. Of course there will have been those who missed the lay on Saturday with 3.6 and less not around for long. That wasn’t me though. I got all my stake on at 3.4. Shucks!! My luck, as they say, is out.

That in mind I don’t expect much from Sunday’s play and will not be staking high. Bullish me would be really keen that Rocket Action – who seriously impressed in his second LTO at Newcastle – could make the necessary improvement to dethrone Deputise getting a few pound in weight from him. Deputise’s strong last two wins were over further where his breeding says he is going and there is collateral form from the Newcastle 5 furlong track that says Rocket Action is the faster horse over 5.

The Hamilton hill however could help Deputise.Rocket Action is also up in class here so will need to improve but has been from race to race so there is hope and we will be rewarded with price. Hang on with bets in this one. I expect Deputise to go shorter and Rocket Action to drift before the off. And I’m out to maximise both here having messed up yesterday and got myself on a downturn proper.

Not risking though. Confidence and stakes stay low despite the value I’m expecting to get.

Recommendation:

0.25pt LAY on DEPUTISE (around 1.9 : not greater than 2.3)

0.15pt BACK on ROCKET ACTION (around 8/1 or better)

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This month plays so far:

1st:   -0.455 (-0.455) LAY @ 2.82

2nd:  -0.3    (-0.755) LAY @ 1.6

3rd:   -0.628 (-1.383) LAY @ 2.76 : BACK @ 34.0

4th:   -0.8    (-2.183) LAY @ 3.4 : BACK @ 7.0

BLWM LIM strike rates:  LAYS: 96/138 = 69.56% :   BACKS: 22/88 = 25%

TO FOLLOW HORSES TO TRADE ON SATURDAY:

8-35 HEXHAM – OPECHEE

BOZ BACKED @ 6.5: LAID BACK @ 4.6

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SUMMER NH HORSES TO FOLLOW for TRADING or LIM PURPOSES:

No current entries

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HORSES TO FOLLOW ON THE FLAT:

Rocket Action

King of Comedy – Entered for St James Palace,Ascot (June 18)

Land of Legends – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Edaraat

Moonlight Spirit – Entered for the King Edward,Ascot (June 21)

Eightsome Reel

Dee Ex Bee – Entered for the Yorkshire Cup (May 17) & Ascot Gold Cup (June 20)

Hiroshima – Entered for the Derby (June 1) & Irish Derby (June 29)

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STAGGERED ACCA RECOMMENDED STARTING BANK = 10 points

Stands at 10.544 points.

Staggered acca number 10: (LEG 2)

 I will shout when the next leg emerges.

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Good Luck with your bets.

BOZ

The BOZmail golden rules:

1/ Try to look where others do not.

2/ Make sure your selections are as good as you can get them(the boz’s job here)

3/ Get your staking right (up when confident – down when less so or when managing bank)

4/ Do all in your power to get best price available(whether that be using price comparison sites or using partial staking techniques on the exchanges when unsure which way a price might go. Be careful not to take exchange ‘silly prices’ if you are going in early on a lay price or if a specified low lay tissue price goes on a significant drift. Always check bookmaker tissue prices first to get a guide on what to expect from the market if it is not yet properly formed on the exchanges. As from March 2019 onwards, advised not to take BETFAIR SP prices on lays following some adverse returns therein over the January/February period. The recommendation is always to secure a price (if possible) within the published parameters when actually placing the lay bet. Your discretion based on personal form study also encouraged to ensure you maximise returns.The staking advices are a general rather than rigid dictate – mainly for the less experienced and those not able to spend time watching markets develop and practising the optimum betting time skill.

5/ Always keep in mind the long term ‘importance of  breaking even’ philosophy and practice. This is very much used by The Boz in his staking advices and is recommended in your betting practices – especially during the down spells – in order to maintain a healthy and consistent bank.

6/ Always remember the BOZ does traditionally suffer from Murphys Law. If he expresses his opinion but states that he won’t be betting on it himself and isn’t making it an official tip, remember that historically these can be his best advices! The 2019 Grand National opinion expressed paid a £2,260-93 tricast for a £60 (£1×60) permed stake (five selections).

7/ Never accept an overall loss. This has been the BOZ’s mantra for 22 years. The year the BOZmail posts an overall loss is the year he packs in.

“I play cautiously and strategically with bank management also always in mind. The staggered acca is the attempt to win large from small stake. The LIM is the cashbuilder to gradually accumulate profit over a 12 month period.”  Boz

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